NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	98		Excitement	5.4 [760]		MVP	Jonathon Simmons (ORL): +37.2%
Orlando Magic	116		Comeback	12.9 [32]		LVP	Derrick Rose (CLE): -12.5%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.01	0.09	-0.05	6	61%	0.16	2	-0.01	6	50%	-0.03
Jeff Green	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	-0.00	8	60%	0.08	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
JR Smith	0.07	0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.11	-0.01	0.03	6	100%	0.09	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Tristan Thompson	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.01	9	67%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	-0.03	-0.04	17	66%	0.16	6	-0.13	4	75%	0.01
Cedi Osman	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Thomas	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.03	-0.05	13	37%	-0.04	1	-0.00	4	100%	0.01
Channing Frye	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.03	-0.03	0.06	4	62%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Korver	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	8	50%	-0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jae Crowder	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.02	6	14%	-0.08	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.05
Derrick Rose	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.11	-0.04	-0.03	7	0%	-0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jonathon Simmons	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.24,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37	0.37	0.21	0.18	0.02	17	79%	0.39	3	-0.02	9	89%	0.02
Khem Birch	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.05	-0.00	5	80%	0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Evan Fournier	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.01	-0.01	13	54%	0.09	2	-0.06	9	44%	-0.03
Mario Hezonja	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.00	0.02	9	56%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marreese Speights	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	5	70%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Wes Iwundu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.02	4	30%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Bismack Biyombo	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	7	58%	0.07	3	-0.07	5	60%	-0.01
Elfrid Payton	0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.02	-0.01	8	62%	0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	8	44%	0.02	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Shelvin Mack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	8	25%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.7	2.3	26.6	15.3	28.9	1.5	26.7	127.9
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +29.2%

ORL +15.0%

ORL +13.3%

CLE -4.1%

CLE -3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	ORL	NBA	CLE	ORL	NBA
this game	14.4	14.7	14.7	98.0	118.4	107.5
season	14.8	14.6		111.2	104.2
opponent	14.5	14.7		109.1	110.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	13.6	12.4	14.2	18.7	14.4
ORL	14.6	14.8	11.9	18.2	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cedi Osman	3	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-18	18	16.7	14.4	2.31	21.0	14.4	6.61
Jose Calderon	3	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-18	18	16.7	14.4	2.31	21.0	14.4	6.61
Derrick Rose	27	29	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.08	1	-19	20	13.5	14.8	-1.30	17.5	13.5	4.05
Channing Frye	21	19	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.03	-1	-17	16	13.4	14.7	-1.27	15.8	14.4	1.40
Jae Crowder	57	54	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.15	-11	-7	-4	14.8	13.9	0.96	13.2	16.5	-3.29
Dwyane Wade	46	46	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.17	-1	-17	16	13.7	15.1	-1.40	15.8	13.6	2.19
Isaiah Thomas	65	61	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.24	-16	-2	-14	14.8	13.7	1.06	13.4	16.7	-3.23
Jeff Green	50	49	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.16	-4	-14	10	12.9	15.9	-3.02	16.1	13.2	2.88
Tristan Thompson	55	54	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.27	-19	1	-20	15.7	12.9	2.84	13.3	16.3	-2.96
Kyle Korver	50	47	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.14	-5	-13	8	13.1	15.7	-2.62	15.6	13.8	1.75
LeBron James	68	69	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.03	-14	-4	-10	14.9	13.5	1.32	14.6	14.9	-0.38
JR Smith	55	54	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	0.07	-20	2	-22	15.6	13.0	2.52	13.0	16.7	-3.62

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Khem Birch	34	34	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.03	15	3	12	16.9	13.5	3.35	15.9	13.7	2.20
Jonathon Simmons	72	74	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.13	18	0	18	14.3	15.6	-1.30	15.2	12.1	3.13
Mario Hezonja	55	54	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.10	10	8	2	13.7	15.9	-2.17	14.9	13.9	0.96
Evan Fournier	77	79	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.22	20	-2	22	13.8	17.7	-3.82	14.5	14.2	0.24
Shelvin Mack	51	53	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.05	14	4	10	16.1	13.1	2.91	14.0	14.9	-0.96
D.J. Augustin	47	48	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.06	14	4	10	16.3	13.2	3.14	14.3	14.5	-0.19
Elfrid Payton	51	52	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.03	4	14	-10	13.2	16.3	-3.14	14.5	14.3	0.19
Bismack Biyombo	48	50	0.14	0.36	-0.23	-0.01	5	13	-8	12.8	16.5	-3.71	14.8	14.1	0.66
Wes Iwundu	27	27	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.15	-1	19	-20	16.2	14.1	2.10	13.8	14.7	-0.84
Marreese Speights	16	16	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.04	-2	20	-22	15.7	14.5	1.22	10.3	15.2	-4.90
Arron Afflalo	12	13	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.06	-7	25	-32	17.0	14.3	2.66	10.8	15.0	-4.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.33,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.21,0.19,0.15,0.16,0.17,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.19,0.1,0.09,0.14,0.13,0.27,0.33,0.42,0.52,0.45,0.52,0.44,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.71,0.77,0.86,0.96,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 90, IND 108	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.32,0.24,0.16,0.21,0.17,0.13,0.12,0.17,0.16,0.12,0.18,0.2,0.21,0.2,0.25,0.27,0.36,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.88,0.96,0.94,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.6%
BOS 100, UTA 118	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.27,0.25,0.26,0.3,0.23,0.15,0.17,0.14,0.16,0.18,0.21,0.18,0.2,0.16,0.11,0.16,0.15,0.22,0.21,0.23,0.32,0.38,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.66,0.75,0.83,0.85,0.89,0.92,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1	92.4%
POR 100, CLE 105	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.31,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.26,0.24,0.18,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.17,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.26,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.52,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.75,0.83,0.85,0.92,0.88,0.91,0.93,0.78,0.97,1,1	91.8%