NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	108		Excitement	8.2 [248]		MVP	Nick Young (GSW): +23.7%
Houston Rockets	116		Comeback	2.3 [392]		LVP	Klay Thompson (GSW): -18.9%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Young	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.14	0.08	-0.02	10	80%	0.24	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Draymond Green	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.10	0.13	0.02	9	87%	0.35	5	-0.13	6	83%	0.01
Zaza Pachulia	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevon Looney	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	0.01	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.03,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01	0.09	-0.05	0.03	17	67%	0.24	4	-0.23	5	80%	0.01
Patrick McCaw	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Shaun Livingston	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David West	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.01	-0.05	0.01	6	67%	0.02	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Curry	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.11,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.13	-0.12	-0.06	-0.05	20	43%	0.07	6	-0.20	4	50%	-0.04
Klay Thompson	-0.19	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19	-0.05	-0.14	-0.00	11	36%	-0.12	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
PJ Tucker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.02	0.16	-0.00	11	52%	0.22	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Chris Paul	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.14	0.05	0.02	20	69%	0.31	4	-0.14	8	87%	0.03
Clint Capela	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.08	0.05	-0.02	12	56%	0.15	0	0.00	8	50%	-0.08
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	-0.02	0.01	6	87%	0.14	3	-0.10	4	100%	0.02
James Harden	0,0,0,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.01	16	65%	0.17	6	-0.15	2	50%	-0.01
Nene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	-0.02	0.00	5	60%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	0.00	3	62%	0.03	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Eric Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.15	-0.05	-0.02	14	19%	-0.18	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	2.8	32.5	15.4	27.6	3.5	29.6	135.9
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW -6.5%

HOU +5.6%

HOU +25.6%

GSW -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	HOU	NBA	GSW	HOU	NBA
this game	13.0	15.8	14.7	108.0	116.0	107.5
season	13.7	14.6		112.6	112.8
opponent	14.8	15.1		105.6	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.4	11.7	12.7	13.0	13.0
HOU	13.3	16.0	17.3	17.0	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevon Looney	30	29	0.11	-0.61	0.72	0.02	3	-11	14	11.6	13.5	-1.94	13.8	16.7	-2.93
David West	26	27	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.01	1	-9	10	13.4	12.8	0.63	18.4	14.9	3.52
Nick Young	35	37	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.07	0	-8	8	12.2	13.4	-1.13	16.5	15.5	1.03
Zaza Pachulia	34	34	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.00	-3	-5	2	14.2	12.3	1.84	15.4	16.1	-0.69
Klay Thompson	76	75	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.16	0	-8	8	13.4	11.6	1.76	16.0	15.3	0.75
Shaun Livingston	30	31	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.15	-2	-6	4	13.0	12.9	0.06	18.0	14.9	3.13
Draymond Green	78	77	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.19	-5	-3	-2	12.8	13.4	-0.58	15.3	17.8	-2.52
Patrick McCaw	39	38	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.08	-13	5	-18	13.1	12.9	0.28	16.6	15.4	1.23
Stephen Curry	78	78	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.33	-11	3	-14	12.7	14.0	-1.39	15.0	18.8	-3.76
Kevin Durant	74	74	-0.65	0.15	-0.81	-0.36	-10	2	-12	13.1	12.7	0.36	15.6	16.5	-0.94

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Gordon	71	70	0.74	-0.24	0.97	0.30	15	-7	22	15.5	16.6	-1.00	13.3	12.2	1.04
PJ Tucker	53	52	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.40	6	2	4	16.6	15.0	1.67	13.2	12.7	0.44
Chris Paul	74	77	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.26	6	2	4	15.4	17.2	-1.78	12.4	14.9	-2.48
Luc Mbah a Moute	70	70	0.33	0.17	0.15	-0.06	13	-5	18	14.9	18.0	-3.13	13.2	12.5	0.70
Nene	36	34	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.08	8	0	8	14.2	16.7	-2.53	14.6	12.1	2.47
Clint Capela	61	62	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.17	0	8	-8	16.6	14.6	2.01	12.3	14.0	-1.72
James Harden	71	71	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.32	-6	14	-20	16.8	13.5	3.27	13.2	12.4	0.77
Ryan Anderson	64	64	-0.21	0.71	-0.91	-0.15	-2	10	-12	16.2	15.2	0.97	12.4	13.9	-1.49

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.58,0.57,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.55,0.58,0.71,0.74,0.74,0.66,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.77,0.82,0.84,0.77,0.75,0.7,0.69,0.6,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.72,0.62,0.59,0.69,0.71,0.71,0.54,0.62,0.43,0.37,0.44,0.37,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.64,0.86,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 83, BOS 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.66,0.72,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.72,0.73,0.75,0.76,0.75,0.73,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.75,0.73,0.71,0.75,0.69,0.76,0.81,0.77,0.74,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.78,0.62,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.47,0.47,0.29,0.54,0.61,0.72,0.9,0.99,1	91.8%
SAC 99, HOU 102	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.72,0.74,0.8,0.75,0.79,0.78,0.82,0.84,0.9,0.84,0.88,0.78,0.82,0.77,0.77,0.8,0.76,0.73,0.68,0.74,0.69,0.66,0.63,0.72,0.58,0.57,0.67,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.27,0.34,0.55,0.71,0.94,0.96,1	91.5%
NYK 87, IND 92	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.68,0.73,0.78,0.8,0.79,0.78,0.84,0.81,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.55,0.59,0.71,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.57,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.29,0.4,0.38,0.46,0.83,0.85,1	91.0%