NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	102		Excitement	8.0 [264]		MVP	Josh Richardson (MIA): +35.1%
Miami Heat	103		Comeback	23.4 [81]		LVP	Ricky Rubio (UTA): -11.2%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alec Burks	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.06	0.10	0.00	4	75%	0.15	0	0.00	4	100%	0.07
Thabo Sefolosha	0.13	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.10	0.04	0.01	4	108%	0.18	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
Rodney Hood	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.11	0.04	0.08	0.01	16	49%	0.11	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Ekpe Udoh	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.06	0.00	1	100%	0.10	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Derrick Favors	0.00	0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	10	46%	0.04	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Joe Johnson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	0.00	8	56%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Donovan Mitchell	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.07,-0.03	0.07	-0.07	0.03	25	54%	0.03	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Joe Ingles	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.06	-0.00	8	56%	0.02	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Rubio	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	6	25%	-0.07	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.03

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0.35	0.35	0.02	0.34	0.01	11	54%	0.37	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.03
Tyler Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.03	0.01	13	62%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11	0.11	0.03	0.07	0.00	8	60%	0.15	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.02	0.06	-0.01	12	54%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	-0.00	7	64%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Jones Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	2	83%	0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.06
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	80%	0.04	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.02	11	54%	0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.16,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	18	41%	0.01	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	2.4	29.5	7.8	25.4	2.4	36.4	126.4
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +39.6%

UTA -6.8%

UTA -2.9%

MIA +14.1%

MIA +6.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	MIA	NBA	UTA	MIA	NBA
this game	15.5	16.0	14.7	110.9	113.2	107.5
season	15.1	15.1		106.6	105.4
opponent	14.6	14.6		105.8	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	16.8	16.6	13.3	15.8	15.5
MIA	17.5	16.9	15.5	14.2	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ekpe Udoh	28	29	0.34	-0.84	1.17	0.16	6	-7	13	16.5	15.1	1.37	16.3	15.8	0.55
Alec Burks	27	26	0.15	-0.65	0.79	0.15	0	-1	1	17.9	14.5	3.31	16.8	15.6	1.12
Joe Johnson	35	35	0.13	-0.63	0.75	0.01	4	-5	9	16.5	14.9	1.67	16.1	15.9	0.24
Ricky Rubio	57	57	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.05	0	-1	1	15.2	16.1	-0.88	16.7	14.7	2.06
Donovan Mitchell	72	71	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.48	5	-6	11	14.7	18.4	-3.69	15.8	16.4	-0.55
Thabo Sefolosha	57	56	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.48	-5	4	-9	14.9	16.5	-1.67	15.9	16.1	-0.24
Joe Ingles	65	64	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.60	-1	0	-1	14.9	17.1	-2.21	15.5	17.0	-1.42
Rodney Hood	55	55	-0.73	0.23	-0.96	-0.53	-7	6	-13	16.5	14.0	2.53	15.4	16.8	-1.34
Derrick Favors	64	62	-0.84	0.34	-1.17	-0.63	-7	6	-13	15.1	16.5	-1.37	15.8	16.3	-0.55

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyler Johnson	66	68	0.83	-0.33	1.16	0.57	9	-8	17	15.8	16.5	-0.71	14.6	18.0	-3.37
Goran Dragic	64	67	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.55	8	-7	15	15.6	16.7	-1.10	15.0	17.0	-2.04
Kelly Olynyk	61	60	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.57	-1	2	-3	15.9	16.1	-0.15	15.8	15.0	0.78
Josh Richardson	70	71	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.42	4	-3	7	16.2	15.2	0.95	15.5	15.7	-0.20
Wayne Ellington	59	58	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.36	-2	3	-5	15.5	16.9	-1.40	16.7	13.6	3.10
James Johnson	49	51	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.03	2	-1	3	16.0	15.9	0.07	15.8	15.1	0.66
Bam Adebayo	14	14	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.02	-2	3	-5	16.9	15.8	1.05	15.6	15.5	0.07
Hassan Whiteside	49	50	-0.21	0.71	-0.91	-0.06	-5	6	-11	16.6	15.3	1.31	14.7	16.4	-1.69
Derrick Jones Jr.	23	21	-0.33	0.83	-1.17	-0.10	-8	9	-17	16.3	15.9	0.39	17.4	14.9	2.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.55,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.72,0.63,0.54,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.42,0.35,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.38,0.57,0.43,0.23,0.17,0.19,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.16,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 75, OKC 77	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.46,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.34,0.41,0.55,0.44,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.47,0.37,0.26,0.19,0.34,0.19,0.16,0.04,0.13,1	92.1%
NYK 91, SAC 92	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.59,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.36,0.41,0.5,0.45,0.51,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.38,0.43,0.43,0.33,0.26,0.09,0.13,0.19,0.29,0.06,0.27,1	92.0%
DAL 101, LAC 104	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.63,0.61,0.63,0.57,0.47,0.43,0.51,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.7,0.64,0.54,0.46,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.33,0.29,0.41,0.41,0.49,0.33,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.38,0.38,0.32,0.17,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.22,0.32,0.42,1	91.3%