NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	127		Excitement	7.8 [308]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +31.9%
Dallas Mavericks	124		Comeback	4.4 [198]		LVP	Devin Harris (DAL): -10.7%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kris Dunn	0.30	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.31,0.29,0.3	0.18	0.15	0.03	17	80%	0.39	4	-0.09	6	67%	-0.03
Justin Holiday	0.28	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.28	0.23	0.13	0.08	7	105%	0.30	1	-0.02	8	100%	0.02
Lauri Markkanen	0.15	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.13	0.03	0.01	9	84%	0.17	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.01
Jerian Grant	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.01	6	44%	0.03	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Bobby Portis	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	6	67%	0.10	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
David Nwaba	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.1,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	9	62%	0.11	3	-0.10	3	33%	-0.05
Nikola Mirotic	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	-0.06	0.04	-0.02	9	50%	0.06	4	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Robin Lopez	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	10	55%	0.06	3	-0.07	2	0%	-0.03
Paul Zipser	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Denzel Valentine	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	3	25%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.24,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32	0.32	0.17	0.14	-0.00	11	86%	0.32	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.12	0.06	0.04	6	100%	0.17	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.18,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.17	-0.01	0.03	14	73%	0.16	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.02
Maxi Kleber	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.01	7	57%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Yogi Ferrell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	5	60%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
J.J. Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.14,0.12,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	-0.00	10	50%	0.03	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Salah Mejri	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Harrison Barnes	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.04	-0.02	0.05	21	52%	0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Dennis Smith Jr.	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.02	0.02	12	52%	0.02	5	-0.11	5	20%	-0.06
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	6	36%	-0.02	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.4	27.5	14.7	25.1	1.7	39.0	132.7
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +28.0%

CHI +10.0%

CHI +20.4%

DAL -9.1%

CHI +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	DAL	NBA	CHI	DAL	NBA
this game	12.5	15.7	14.7	124.5	121.6	107.5
season	14.2	15.4		103.2	105.3
opponent	14.3	15.0		108.1	110.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	13.1	12.8	14.4	10.3	12.5
DAL	16.4	16.0	16.2	14.6	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Nwaba	46	48	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.62	-1	4	-5	11.3	13.5	-2.19	16.3	15.1	1.19
Bobby Portis	40	40	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.36	8	-5	13	12.7	12.4	0.32	17.3	14.6	2.70
Lauri Markkanen	69	70	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.46	3	0	3	12.4	12.8	-0.38	15.0	17.3	-2.30
Justin Holiday	80	80	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.44	-1	4	-5	12.3	13.5	-1.24	15.3	17.2	-1.94
Kris Dunn	69	70	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.43	-2	5	-7	12.6	12.5	0.07	15.1	17.0	-1.93
Jerian Grant	33	32	0.13	0.37	-0.25	-0.02	5	-2	7	12.5	12.6	-0.07	17.0	15.1	1.93
Paul Zipser	30	29	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.06	5	-2	7	12.9	12.4	0.48	17.1	15.2	1.95
Nikola Mirotic	52	51	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.00	-2	5	-7	11.1	14.0	-2.92	15.3	16.1	-0.86
Robin Lopez	43	43	-0.09	0.58	-0.67	0.00	-3	6	-9	14.3	11.3	3.02	15.9	15.6	0.27
Denzel Valentine	48	47	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	-0.18	3	0	3	13.9	11.3	2.62	14.9	16.4	-1.47

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Salah Mejri	20	19	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.05	4	-7	11	16.4	15.5	0.93	14.5	12.1	2.45
Maxi Kleber	51	51	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.13	5	-8	13	14.7	16.7	-2.00	12.4	12.7	-0.31
Devin Harris	32	33	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.00	-3	0	-3	16.8	15.2	1.57	13.3	12.2	1.14
Dirk Nowitzki	47	48	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.08	-6	3	-9	16.5	15.0	1.45	13.4	11.7	1.68
Wesley Matthews	78	77	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.34	5	-8	13	15.4	16.7	-1.26	12.3	13.1	-0.78
Dennis Smith Jr.	61	60	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.12	-4	1	-5	14.0	18.2	-4.16	11.9	13.5	-1.61
J.J. Barea	46	44	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.16	-6	3	-9	17.0	14.7	2.32	12.8	12.3	0.51
Harrison Barnes	75	75	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.40	0	-3	3	15.2	17.0	-1.76	12.3	13.2	-0.89
Dwight Powell	55	56	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.31	-9	6	-15	16.6	14.6	1.98	12.6	12.4	0.25
Yogi Ferrell	45	47	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.63	-1	-2	1	16.1	15.4	0.65	11.6	13.3	-1.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.29,0.36,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.37,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.33,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.39,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.7,0.75,0.81,0.62,0.51,0.38,0.37,0.47,0.59,0.46,0.19,0.26,0.07,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 100, DEN 92	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.32,0.37,0.38,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.45,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.58,0.57,0.38,0.43,0.44,0.36,0.41,0.28,0.27,0.21,0.14,0.04,0	91.8%
SAS 121, PHX 114	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.47,0.4,0.3,0.38,0.3,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.4,0.33,0.38,0.48,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.67,0.75,0.66,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.35,0.33,0.07,0.07,0.01,0,0	91.7%
HOU 112, MIN 109	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.28,0.31,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.59,0.62,0.56,0.58,0.67,0.52,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.6,0.7,0.57,0.62,0.53,0.47,0.36,0.41,0.27,0.25,0.21,0.06,0.16,0	91.6%