NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	110		Excitement	9.7 [86]		MVP	Will Barton (DEN): +87.8%
Denver Nuggets	111		Comeback	6.1 [379]		LVP	Jamal Murray (DEN): -24.9%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kris Dunn	0.53	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.25,0.25,0.53	0.13	0.41	0.00	11	76%	0.56	1	-0.03	3	0%	-0.08
Paul Zipser	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.09	0.08	-0.01	6	92%	0.20	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Robin Lopez	0.08	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.02	11	80%	0.22	4	-0.14	3	67%	-0.03
Jerian Grant	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	-0.00	6	50%	0.06	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.06
Lauri Markkanen	0.04	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.1,0.14,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,0.04	0.04	-0.02	-0.02	17	51%	0.09	1	-0.05	5	100%	0.03
Bobby Portis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	8	50%	0.03	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.03
Antonio Blakeney	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Denzel Valentine	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.09,-0.09	-0.00	-0.09	-0.00	6	42%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justin Holiday	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.16	0.02	-0.19	-0.02	14	53%	-0.09	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.23,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.16,0.16,0.88	0.88	0.29	0.64	0.05	19	84%	0.98	3	-0.11	6	83%	0.04
Trey Lyles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.02	0.01	6	71%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.04
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	6	57%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	3	50%	0.04	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.08
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	3	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Harris	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.01,-0.08,-0.08,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.00	15	55%	0.15	3	-0.15	8	75%	0.05
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.07	-0.08	0.00	10	70%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Emmanuel Mudiay	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.07	0.02	-0.04	9	35%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Juan Hernangomez	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	3	12%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.11	-0.16	-0.01	9	24%	-0.19	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	2.4	29.6	14.7	28.3	1.6	32.4	134.4
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI -37.7%

DEN +51.0%

DEN +20.3%

CHI -5.1%

DEN +21.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	DEN	NBA	CHI	DEN	NBA
this game	14.6	15.2	14.7	113.4	115.6	107.5
season	14.2	14.7		103.2	111.2
opponent	14.7	15.0		109.9	110.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.9	13.6	14.8	14.4	14.6
DEN	15.4	17.1	13.4	15.0	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul Zipser	36	36	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.02	1	-2	3	15.3	14.3	1.04	13.7	16.1	-2.36
Bobby Portis	36	37	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.10	-3	2	-5	13.8	15.1	-1.30	14.1	15.9	-1.82
Antonio Blakeney	27	27	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.04	-5	4	-9	15.5	14.3	1.20	14.2	15.6	-1.36
Jerian Grant	46	45	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.02	-4	3	-7	15.1	14.2	0.87	14.3	16.0	-1.75
Justin Holiday	75	75	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.41	3	-4	7	14.3	15.8	-1.45	15.2	15.3	-0.17
Robin Lopez	69	68	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.44	0	-1	1	14.7	14.5	0.21	15.2	15.2	-0.02
Kris Dunn	53	53	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.50	1	-2	3	14.5	14.9	-0.43	16.0	14.2	1.87
Denzel Valentine	80	78	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.54	2	-3	5	14.3	16.2	-1.85	16.0	11.7	4.35
Lauri Markkanen	63	61	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.55	0	-1	1	14.9	14.1	0.82	16.1	13.5	2.60

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Harris	79	81	0.77	-0.27	1.05	0.48	10	-9	19	15.6	13.2	2.38	14.5	15.3	-0.79
Kenneth Faried	44	44	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.71	-3	4	-7	16.3	14.3	2.03	13.9	15.3	-1.40
Will Barton	73	72	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.18	12	-11	23	14.7	16.9	-2.26	14.5	15.1	-0.58
Jamal Murray	60	62	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.47	2	-1	3	16.0	13.9	2.09	14.1	15.6	-1.49
Trey Lyles	46	46	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.35	0	1	-1	14.1	16.2	-2.05	14.8	14.5	0.25
Richard Jefferson	24	24	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.12	-1	2	-3	15.0	15.3	-0.32	16.4	14.1	2.29
Emmanuel Mudiay	36	35	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.00	-1	2	-3	13.9	16.0	-2.09	15.6	14.1	1.49
Juan Hernangomez	47	49	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.08	-6	7	-13	14.8	15.6	-0.72	14.0	15.3	-1.23
Nikola Jokic	29	32	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.04	-6	7	-13	17.1	14.4	2.68	14.4	14.8	-0.41
Mason Plumlee	42	40	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	-0.08	-2	3	-5	14.6	15.6	-1.03	15.8	13.8	1.96

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.43,0.39,0.36,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.28,0.32,0.3,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.32,0.23,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.2,0.23,0.33,0.3,0.33,0.4,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.59,0.67,0.6,0.46,0.48,0.33,0.38,0.58,0.64,0.76,0.6,0.45,0.29,0.45,0.28,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 88, CLE 91	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.37,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.31,0.32,0.33,0.27,0.3,0.27,0.31,0.25,0.3,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.43,0.35,0.45,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.5,0.34,0.34,0.43,0.42,0.53,0.73,0.54,0.53,0.21,0.22,0.42,1	91.2%
SAC 104, SEA 106	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.3,0.34,0.3,0.28,0.34,0.3,0.27,0.23,0.29,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.45,0.41,0.56,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.44,0.34,0.37,0.53,0.81,0.6,0.55,0.45,0.23,0.42,1	91.0%
BOS 107, MIN 109	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.45,0.41,0.38,0.35,0.33,0.37,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.29,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.27,0.34,0.39,0.45,0.62,0.69,0.66,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.38,0.43,0.42,0.64,0.65,0.83,0.53,0.17,0.43,0.42,1	90.1%