NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	97		Excitement	6.0 [653]		MVP	LaMarcus Aldridge (SAS): +20.9%
Dallas Mavericks	91		Comeback	1.5 [991]		LVP	Pau Gasol (SAS): -17.7%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.21	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.15,0.21,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.12	0.10	0.01	21	62%	0.26	3	-0.05	10	80%	0.01
Patty Mills	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.10	0.04	0.00	13	68%	0.18	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00
Dejounte Murray	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	7	62%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Manu Ginobili	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04	0.08	0.00	0.05	7	72%	0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.00
Kyle Anderson	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Bryn Forbes	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.03	0.00	5	36%	0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.03
Joffrey Lauvergne	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.03	-0.01	6	33%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Paul	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Davis Bertans	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gay	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.12	-0.03	-0.02	7	25%	-0.05	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Pau Gasol	-0.18	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.11	-0.07	0.01	5	20%	-0.08	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
J.J. Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	-0.01	0.01	11	70%	0.13	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	-0.00	0.02	8	71%	0.07	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Salah Mejri	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	1	75%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.01	11	44%	-0.00	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.04
Maxi Kleber	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	5	45%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Nerlens Noel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Smith Jr.	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	0.06	23	56%	0.05	6	-0.14	2	100%	0.01
Harrison Barnes	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.03	0.03	16	42%	-0.06	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.02
Yogi Ferrell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.14	-0.04	-0.00	5	0%	-0.11	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.6	25.2	14.6	26.5	2.4	35.5	131.1
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +28.1%

SAS +3.4%

SAS +12.8%

SAS +7.2%

DAL -1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DAL	NBA	SAS	DAL	NBA
this game	15.4	15.2	14.7	103.2	96.8	107.5
season	15.5	15.4		106.7	105.3
opponent	14.3	14.5		108.1	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.9	14.7	16.5	14.7	15.4
DAL	15.4	16.7	13.5	15.3	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Anderson	69	69	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.35	9	-3	12	14.7	17.3	-2.58	15.4	14.8	0.56
LaMarcus Aldridge	69	69	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.24	11	-5	16	15.7	14.8	0.85	15.6	14.3	1.27
Dejounte Murray	35	37	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.12	12	-6	18	16.7	14.7	1.96	15.6	14.9	0.67
Brandon Paul	17	19	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.09	10	-4	14	14.5	15.6	-1.17	17.8	14.6	3.23
Pau Gasol	48	46	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.20	5	1	4	14.8	16.1	-1.30	15.0	15.5	-0.50
Manu Ginobili	31	33	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.27	-2	8	-10	15.8	15.2	0.62	14.2	15.7	-1.50
Danny Green	57	54	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.14	1	5	-4	14.7	16.5	-1.84	14.6	16.0	-1.37
Davis Bertans	10	10	0.09	0.41	-0.31	-0.05	5	1	4	14.2	15.6	-1.37	18.8	14.8	4.01
Patty Mills	61	59	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.27	-8	14	-22	15.0	16.3	-1.35	15.1	15.5	-0.39
Rudy Gay	30	30	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	-0.03	-1	7	-8	17.4	14.5	2.90	14.5	15.5	-1.00
Bryn Forbes	33	33	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.02	-3	9	-12	16.9	14.6	2.29	15.1	15.3	-0.19
Joffrey Lauvergne	10	11	-0.27	0.77	-1.05	-0.01	-9	15	-24	15.1	15.5	-0.36	12.9	15.5	-2.61

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Maxi Kleber	41	41	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.10	1	-7	8	15.5	15.0	0.49	15.1	15.6	-0.50
Salah Mejri	25	25	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.00	-3	-3	0	15.8	15.0	0.80	17.2	14.8	2.47
Nerlens Noel	8	9	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.03	-5	-1	-4	16.0	15.1	0.86	17.7	15.2	2.48
Yogi Ferrell	64	65	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.17	-1	-5	4	14.0	17.7	-3.65	16.3	13.4	2.96
J.J. Barea	50	51	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.12	-3	-3	0	16.3	13.9	2.41	14.9	16.0	-1.10
Harrison Barnes	74	73	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.23	-2	-4	2	14.7	17.0	-2.27	15.5	15.1	0.36
Dirk Nowitzki	61	60	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.35	2	-8	10	14.9	15.8	-0.98	14.3	17.4	-3.02
Dennis Smith Jr.	74	72	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.35	-8	2	-10	15.5	14.3	1.16	15.0	17.0	-2.00
Wesley Matthews	73	74	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.31	-11	5	-16	15.5	14.0	1.50	15.5	15.1	0.35

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.37,0.3,0.34,0.28,0.3,0.33,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.23,0.32,0.42,0.38,0.25,0.28,0.23,0.22,0.2,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 102, LAC 85	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.41,0.46,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.27,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.31,0.25,0.27,0.21,0.11,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	94.1%
GSW 85, TOR 78	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.27,0.32,0.38,0.33,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.22,0.16,0.23,0.33,0.18,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.17,0.19,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0	93.8%
SAC 104, HOU 101	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.51,0.45,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.59,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.47,0.41,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.41,0.33,0.35,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.33,0.42,0.38,0.25,0.2,0.23,0.25,0.42,0.3,0.29,0.2,0.23,0.14,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.11,0.01,0	93.4%