NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	129		Excitement	5.1 [827]		MVP	OG Anunoby (TOR): +17.9%
Houston Rockets	113		Comeback	2.1 [232]		LVP	Eric Gordon (HOU): -13.2%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
OG Anunoby	0.18	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.14	0.04	-0.00	8	89%	0.18	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
CJ Miles	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.14	0.01	-0.00	12	73%	0.15	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.02	-0.03	16	56%	0.13	3	-0.04	16	81%	0.04
Delon Wright	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.10	0.01	0.02	5	93%	0.13	2	-0.04	5	80%	-0.01
Jakob Poeltl	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	4	78%	0.07	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.00	-0.01	12	56%	0.08	2	-0.03	10	90%	0.03
Pascal Siakam	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alfonzo McKinnie	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lucas Nogueira	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	-0.00	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.01	9	60%	0.04	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Fred VanVleet	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	6	57%	-0.01	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Serge Ibaka	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	5	42%	0.00	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.16	0.01	0.04	11	80%	0.14	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Clint Capela	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.01	0.02	7	69%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tarik Black	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.01	8	65%	0.09	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	8	50%	0.01	1	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	6	64%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Demetrius Jackson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zhou Qi	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	1	25%	0.00	1	0.00	2	50%	0.00
James Harden	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	25	55%	0.15	9	-0.19	19	100%	0.08
PJ Tucker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Eric Gordon	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.06	-0.01	12	39%	-0.03	3	-0.10	7	86%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	1.7	34.7	14.0	33.0	2.4	28.7	141.8
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +33.6%

HOU -0.5%

HOU -11.8%

TOR +17.6%

TOR +11.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	HOU	NBA	TOR	HOU	NBA
this game	14.3	13.8	14.7	127.7	108.7	107.5
season	14.6	14.6		112.7	112.8
opponent	14.8	14.8		105.6	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.7	13.2	14.3	14.4	14.3
HOU	13.8	14.5	12.0	15.0	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
OG Anunoby	62	62	0.53	-0.03	0.56	-0.09	21	-5	26	14.0	14.9	-0.86	14.3	13.0	1.27
Serge Ibaka	54	55	0.51	-0.01	0.52	-0.02	18	-2	20	12.6	16.4	-3.85	14.4	13.0	1.40
Delon Wright	52	54	0.44	0.06	0.39	-0.08	18	-2	20	15.3	13.3	1.98	13.5	14.0	-0.46
Kyle Lowry	79	80	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.03	14	2	12	13.5	17.4	-3.92	14.3	11.9	2.40
DeMar DeRozan	72	75	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.08	7	9	-2	13.8	15.8	-1.98	13.8	13.6	0.29
Jakob Poeltl	28	28	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.05	5	11	-6	15.2	14.0	1.25	13.9	13.7	0.18
Fred VanVleet	33	35	0.19	0.31	-0.11	-0.01	7	9	-2	15.0	14.0	0.93	13.9	13.7	0.23
Lucas Nogueira	11	11	0.03	0.47	-0.43	-0.03	2	14	-12	17.8	13.9	3.90	12.1	14.0	-1.87
Jonas Valanciunas	37	36	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.04	-1	17	-18	13.8	14.6	-0.80	14.4	13.4	0.92
Alfonzo McKinnie	3	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	14	-12	14.7	14.3	0.33	12.2	13.8	-1.57
CJ Miles	34	37	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.14	-6	22	-28	16.3	13.3	2.98	12.5	14.4	-1.93
Pascal Siakam	40	43	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.09	-7	23	-30	15.4	13.7	1.74	12.2	14.9	-2.64

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Demetrius Jackson	4	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-14	12	12.2	13.8	-1.57	14.7	14.3	0.33
Zhou Qi	4	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-14	12	12.2	13.8	-1.57	14.7	14.3	0.33
Bobby Brown	4	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-14	12	12.2	13.8	-1.57	14.7	14.3	0.33
Tarik Black	38	36	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.07	1	-17	18	12.6	14.4	-1.78	16.1	13.4	2.66
James Harden	85	82	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.13	-2	-14	12	13.6	14.6	-1.00	14.8	12.3	2.57
Trevor Ariza	82	79	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.20	0	-16	16	14.0	12.7	1.37	14.1	15.3	-1.24
PJ Tucker	35	35	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.15	-14	-2	-12	12.3	14.5	-2.22	14.8	14.1	0.65
Luc Mbah a Moute	68	67	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.00	-12	-4	-8	12.8	15.6	-2.79	15.0	13.1	1.90
Eric Gordon	70	70	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.15	-7	-9	2	14.4	12.4	1.96	13.9	15.4	-1.50
Clint Capela	63	62	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	0.11	-17	1	-18	14.5	12.6	1.98	13.3	16.0	-2.69
Ryan Anderson	67	65	-0.72	0.22	-0.93	-0.04	-23	7	-30	14.9	11.7	3.19	13.7	15.6	-1.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.5,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.54,0.57,0.51,0.42,0.47,0.42,0.34,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.25,0.18,0.18,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.12,0.07,0.15,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.19,0.21,0.06,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 111, DEN 104	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.65,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.12,0.16,0.14,0.13,0.07,0.1,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.15,0.1,0.18,0.12,0.17,0.12,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.09,0	94.5%
SAS 99, DEN 91	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.51,0.59,0.61,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.36,0.34,0.22,0.23,0.3,0.2,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.12,0.06,0.07,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.08,0.12,0.17,0.15,0.1,0.14,0.08,0,0,0	94.1%
MEM 107, MIL 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.61,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.39,0.35,0.27,0.29,0.24,0.23,0.14,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.14,0.18,0.23,0.19,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0	94.1%