NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	99		Excitement	5.8 [652]		MVP	Cory Joseph (SAS): +12.1%
Denver Nuggets	91		Comeback	1.8 [768]		LVP	Ty Lawson (DEN): -18.1%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cory Joseph	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.10	0.04	0.02	7	93%	0.14	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kawhi Leonard	0.07	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.02	-0.02	14	53%	0.07	1	-0.00	6	100%	0.02
Aron Baynes	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.06	0.00	9	60%	0.15	4	-0.11	7	86%	0.04
Tiago Splitter	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	7	61%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.03
Matt Bonner	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Anderson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Austin Daye	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.01	6	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.01
Tim Duncan	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.04	0.00	14	44%	0.05	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.01
Boris Diaw	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.00	2	37%	0.00	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
Danny Green	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	0.01	7	36%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wilson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	0.01	0.02	10	70%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.09	-0.02	0.05	20	72%	0.20	6	-0.17	3	100%	0.02
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.02	0.00	7	57%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Timofey Mozgov	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	12	39%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
JJ Hickson	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.01	2	67%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jusuf Nurkic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	7	53%	0.02	3	-0.05	5	80%	0.01
Gary Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Gee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	6	36%	-0.02	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Nate Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	7	13%	-0.07	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.03
Ty Lawson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.17	-0.04	-0.03	10	25%	-0.11	4	-0.07	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.9	1.7	32.0	15.5	27.7	1.6	42.5	143.8
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +35.3%

SAS +3.6%

DEN -11.7%

SAS +19.9%

SAS +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DEN	NBA	SAS	DEN	NBA
this game	15.6	15.1	15.1	105.3	96.8	104.2
season	15.4	14.6		106.9	103.4
opponent	15.3	14.9		106.6	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.9	15.6	16.8	15.2	15.6
DEN	15.8	14.4	16.7	13.6	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kawhi Leonard	72	72	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.20	12	-4	16	15.4	16.1	-0.66	15.2	14.7	0.48
Tim Duncan	59	62	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.03	15	-7	22	15.6	15.5	0.11	16.4	12.4	3.97
Cory Joseph	61	63	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.24	5	3	2	15.6	15.5	0.15	15.6	14.0	1.57
Manu Ginobili	50	48	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.14	8	0	8	15.5	15.7	-0.14	13.9	16.2	-2.32
Danny Green	63	67	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.08	7	1	6	16.4	13.8	2.61	16.1	12.4	3.66
Tiago Splitter	39	38	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.07	4	4	0	15.4	15.7	-0.39	16.1	14.3	1.77
Aron Baynes	15	15	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.02	6	2	4	16.1	15.5	0.65	13.7	15.3	-1.57
Matt Bonner	25	24	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.23	-4	12	-16	16.8	15.1	1.71	15.0	15.1	-0.07
Marco Belinelli	48	45	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.21	-7	15	-22	15.2	16.0	-0.81	13.3	16.7	-3.38
Kyle Anderson	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	9	-10	9.3	15.8	-6.46	12.5	15.1	-2.61
Austin Daye	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	9	-10	9.3	15.8	-6.46	12.5	15.1	-2.61
Boris Diaw	32	32	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.08	-4	12	-16	15.0	15.9	-0.93	12.9	16.2	-3.30

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Harris	29	28	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.11	5	-13	18	13.0	16.0	-2.97	15.7	15.5	0.23
Timofey Mozgov	46	45	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.13	0	-8	8	16.5	13.6	2.88	15.6	15.6	0.03
Nate Robinson	27	29	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.05	-3	-5	2	14.3	15.4	-1.11	17.8	14.6	3.19
Darrell Arthur	40	41	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.15	0	-8	8	14.3	15.6	-1.35	16.0	15.2	0.82
Alonzo Gee	35	37	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.13	-4	-4	0	13.5	16.0	-2.50	15.4	15.7	-0.39
JJ Hickson	32	31	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.01	-9	1	-10	16.4	14.4	2.00	14.7	16.0	-1.31
Jusuf Nurkic	37	37	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	0.01	-11	3	-14	14.0	15.8	-1.78	15.3	15.8	-0.47
Ty Lawson	76	75	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.22	-6	-2	-4	15.1	14.8	0.27	15.1	17.6	-2.56
Arron Afflalo	79	78	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.31	-3	-5	2	15.3	13.5	1.81	15.5	15.9	-0.35
Wilson Chandler	69	69	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.22	-9	1	-10	16.1	12.2	3.83	15.6	15.5	0.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.51,0.59,0.61,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.36,0.34,0.22,0.23,0.3,0.2,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.12,0.06,0.07,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.08,0.12,0.17,0.15,0.1,0.14,0.08,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 87, NJN 81	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.63,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.16,0.23,0.23,0.17,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.13,0.08,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.15,0.27,0.21,0.11,0.04,0.01,0	94.2%
MIA 87, UTA 80	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.5,0.44,0.51,0.42,0.43,0.35,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.39,0.28,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.12,0.11,0.15,0.14,0.13,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.03,0.07,0.14,0.11,0.07,0.11,0.12,0.06,0.13,0.15,0.03,0.02,0	94.2%
CHI 89, ORL 81	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.39,0.32,0.22,0.2,0.17,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.11,0.15,0.14,0.11,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.25,0.19,0.11,0.07,0.11,0.12,0.13,0.08,0.1,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0	94.1%