NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	87		Excitement	4.8 [833]		MVP	Duane Causwell (MIA): +3.3%
Utah Jazz	80		Comeback	1.7 [281]		LVP	John Starks (UTA): -13.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Duane Causwell	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	-0.00	6	67%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.02	0.01	14	61%	0.10	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	9	59%	0.03	1	-0.02	9	67%	-0.04
Brian Grant	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	11	66%	0.09	4	-0.10	10	90%	0.04
Eddie Jones	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.02	0.00	13	48%	0.03	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Anthony Carter	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.01	2	67%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
A.C. Green	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	8	40%	-0.03	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Olden Polynice	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	7	57%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Danny Manning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryon Russell	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.02	8	70%	0.04	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Greg Ostertag	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	1	80%	0.01	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Quincy Lewis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Stockton	0,0,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	0.01	8	64%	-0.01	2	-0.05	6	67%	-0.00
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	6	57%	0.02	4	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Karl Malone	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.16,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.04	-0.03	24	40%	-0.05	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01
John Starks	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.06	-0.01	10	25%	-0.06	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	1.7	28.4	16.3	23.5	2.4	36.5	132.4
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +31.5%

MIA +2.6%

MIA +6.3%

MIA +6.7%

MIA +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	UTA	NBA	MIA	UTA	NBA
this game	17.5	16.6	15.5	101.2	96.4	100.9
season	16.3	16.0		98.4	105.3
opponent	15.5	16.1		100.5	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.5	17.6	18.9	18.2	17.5
UTA	15.8	17.5	20.0	13.9	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bruce Bowen	59	58	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.22	11	-4	15	17.2	18.0	-0.82	17.0	15.7	1.25
Eddie Jones	77	72	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.24	9	-2	11	17.5	17.1	0.41	16.6	16.8	-0.26
Anthony Mason	70	70	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.27	4	3	1	17.0	19.4	-2.33	16.2	18.5	-2.31
A.C. Green	26	25	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.05	11	-4	15	17.9	17.3	0.58	17.0	16.4	0.59
Tim Hardaway	59	56	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.19	6	1	5	16.9	18.8	-1.90	15.2	19.4	-4.23
Brian Grant	69	68	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.36	-5	12	-17	17.2	18.6	-1.46	16.5	16.9	-0.34
Anthony Carter	27	27	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.11	1	6	-5	18.8	16.9	1.90	19.4	15.2	4.23
Duane Causwell	43	39	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.05	-2	9	-11	18.7	16.3	2.40	16.6	16.6	-0.00

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeShawn Stevenson	11	11	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.17	8	-15	23	15.4	16.8	-1.41	20.9	17.0	3.94
Quincy Lewis	9	10	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.03	-5	-2	-3	21.6	16.0	5.57	20.5	17.1	3.42
Olden Polynice	40	42	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.02	-4	-3	-1	17.7	15.6	2.14	17.4	17.5	-0.09
Greg Ostertag	27	27	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.24	3	-10	13	17.0	16.4	0.61	20.2	16.2	4.00
Danny Manning	19	19	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.02	-6	-1	-5	16.1	16.7	-0.63	15.7	18.0	-2.30
Jacque Vaughn	27	27	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.10	-2	-5	3	18.9	15.5	3.41	18.7	16.9	1.79
Donyell Marshall	34	36	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.19	0	-7	7	16.9	16.4	0.44	18.3	16.9	1.38
John Stockton	56	59	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.19	-5	-2	-3	15.5	18.9	-3.41	16.9	18.7	-1.79
Karl Malone	75	78	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.32	-2	-5	3	16.1	21.0	-4.88	17.4	18.1	-0.71
John Starks	63	65	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.16	-10	3	-13	16.1	18.1	-2.05	16.4	20.7	-4.28
Bryon Russell	54	56	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.13	-12	5	-17	16.2	17.3	-1.05	16.4	19.5	-3.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.5,0.44,0.51,0.42,0.43,0.35,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.39,0.28,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.12,0.11,0.15,0.14,0.13,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.03,0.07,0.14,0.11,0.07,0.11,0.12,0.06,0.13,0.15,0.03,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 98, MIL 95	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.38,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.39,0.34,0.28,0.2,0.14,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.15,0.17,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.05,0	94.9%
DET 91, CHI 77	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.41,0.35,0.35,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.39,0.33,0.27,0.2,0.16,0.12,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.01,0,0	94.6%
UTA 108, NJN 92	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.25,0.2,0.14,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	94.2%