NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	117		Excitement	4.4 [964]		MVP	Tyler Johnson (MIA): +17.9%
Miami Heat	100		Comeback	1.3 [868]		LVP	Josh Richardson (MIA): -11.5%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.15	0.02	0.01	20	66%	0.17	2	-0.01	7	86%	0.01
Rudy Gay	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.13	0.04	0.05	8	81%	0.19	3	-0.07	11	82%	0.02
Danny Green	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.14	0.03	0.06	7	107%	0.14	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.02	0.00	12	58%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Paul	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.01	0.02	3	87%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kyle Anderson	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	8	55%	0.05	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Bryn Forbes	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	8	65%	0.08	3	-0.09	4	75%	0.00
Dejounte Murray	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.11	-0.01	-0.03	6	0%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.03	0.01	4	37%	-0.06	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.18	0.05	0.05	13	72%	0.18	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Dion Waiters	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.00	-0.02	15	50%	0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	-0.02	3	83%	0.05	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.09	-0.03	0.04	16	62%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Okaro White	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	6	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.04	-0.02	0.10	14	66%	0.01	4	-0.09	4	100%	0.00
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	0.00	8	30%	-0.07	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	3.5	29.5	14.6	28.2	3.4	31.6	135.4
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +35.1%

SAS +5.4%

SAS +15.0%

MIA -9.9%

SAS +4.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MIA	NBA	SAS	MIA	NBA
this game	16.0	14.3	14.7	125.8	103.1	107.5
season	15.5	15.1		106.7	105.4
opponent	14.6	14.5		105.8	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	17.0	13.8	16.4	16.9	16.0
MIA	15.7	16.2	13.7	11.9	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Green	64	69	0.46	0.04	0.43	-0.12	20	-3	23	16.8	14.2	2.64	14.6	13.8	0.77
LaMarcus Aldridge	74	76	0.44	0.06	0.38	-0.03	16	1	15	15.8	16.9	-1.16	15.0	11.9	3.16
Rudy Gay	53	54	0.35	0.15	0.19	-0.12	16	1	15	15.8	16.4	-0.62	13.0	16.0	-3.04
Dejounte Murray	45	45	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.07	9	8	1	17.1	15.0	2.11	16.2	12.7	3.53
Kyle Anderson	51	50	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.15	5	12	-7	17.3	14.5	2.86	15.9	12.7	3.16
Brandon Paul	38	40	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.07	12	5	7	16.0	16.0	0.01	14.1	14.5	-0.43
Manu Ginobili	44	47	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.02	9	8	1	14.8	17.1	-2.37	13.3	15.3	-2.04
Patty Mills	54	57	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.06	3	14	-11	15.6	16.6	-1.02	12.1	17.5	-5.35
Pau Gasol	37	41	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.03	1	16	-15	14.5	17.1	-2.59	15.0	13.9	1.08
Bryn Forbes	5	6	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.06	-6	23	-29	16.0	16.0	-0.02	15.0	14.3	0.71

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wayne Ellington	13	12	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.00	-1	-16	15	15.5	14.2	1.31	15.1	16.2	-1.08
Kelly Olynyk	26	24	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.09	2	-19	21	13.3	14.7	-1.45	16.4	15.9	0.48
Okaro White	1	0	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	0.02	-2	-15	13	0.0	14.5	-14.48	0.0	16.0	-16.02
Justise Winslow	48	43	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.12	-9	-8	-1	14.3	14.4	-0.12	15.8	16.2	-0.39
Tyler Johnson	70	67	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.04	-7	-10	3	13.5	16.6	-3.08	15.6	17.2	-1.63
Dion Waiters	78	77	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.02	-10	-7	-3	14.4	13.8	0.61	16.2	15.2	1.01
Bam Adebayo	37	37	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.03	-12	-5	-7	16.2	13.2	2.96	15.4	16.4	-1.02
Goran Dragic	75	73	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.06	-12	-5	-7	14.2	14.9	-0.75	16.1	15.9	0.15
Josh Richardson	66	63	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.06	-14	-3	-11	14.6	13.8	0.72	16.5	14.9	1.61
James Johnson	71	69	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	0.10	-20	3	-23	14.5	13.9	0.56	16.3	15.3	0.93

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.34,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.54,0.46,0.43,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.41,0.39,0.38,0.45,0.32,0.28,0.31,0.27,0.2,0.1,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 91, BKN 74	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.44,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.39,0.36,0.25,0.26,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.42,0.29,0.32,0.31,0.3,0.17,0.1,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	94.5%
ORL 109, GSW 98	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.48,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.47,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.32,0.38,0.25,0.15,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	94.5%
MIN 105, VAN 81	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.29,0.25,0.29,0.36,0.35,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.35,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.4,0.49,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.17,0.28,0.27,0.19,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.4%