NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	106		Excitement	10.5 [48]		MVP	Markieff Morris (WAS): +31.3%
Washington Wizards	103		Comeback	2.6 [342]		LVP	John Wall (WAS): -38.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hassan Whiteside	0.25	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.25,0.25	0.09	0.17	0.00	19	64%	0.32	3	-0.07	9	67%	-0.05
Tyler Johnson	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.02	0.10	0.01	15	51%	0.15	1	-0.03	7	57%	-0.07
Wayne Ellington	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.02	0.00	6	71%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Josh Richardson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.00	6	62%	0.06	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.05
Goran Dragic	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.05	-0.01	16	45%	0.09	3	-0.07	8	75%	-0.03
James Johnson	0.01	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.29,-0.36,-0.25,0.01	-0.07	0.09	0.01	14	47%	0.23	4	-0.21	4	75%	-0.01
Okaro White	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Willie Reed	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	2	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Rodney McGruder	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Markieff Morris	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.08,0.31,0.31	0.31	0.13	0.20	0.02	13	81%	0.48	2	-0.17	0	0%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.15	0.15	0.03	0.13	0.02	7	61%	0.17	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.03
Ian Mahinmi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.06	0.00	4	92%	0.17	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.02
Bojan Bogdanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.05	0.00	7	56%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tomas Satoransky	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Oubre Jr.	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,-0.08	-0.08	0.03	-0.12	-0.01	9	60%	0.13	1	-0.20	2	50%	-0.03
Bradley Beal	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.29	-0.29	-0.08	-0.21	-0.00	15	48%	-0.18	5	-0.12	3	100%	0.01
John Wall	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.24,-0.21,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.34,-0.24,-0.39,-0.38	-0.38	-0.21	-0.18	-0.01	18	37%	-0.03	8	-0.35	7	71%	-0.09

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	1.8	31.0	15.0	27.4	2.8	39.4	143.8
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +2.9%

MIA +7.1%

WAS -20.0%

MIA +49.1%

MIA +10.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	WAS	NBA	MIA	WAS	NBA
this game	15.3	13.9	14.8	107.1	105.1	107.7
season	15.4	14.4		106.7	109.9
opponent	14.9	14.5		108.7	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.7	15.3	14.7	16.5	15.3
WAS	14.1	12.9	16.0	13.0	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Richardson	76	76	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.36	9	-6	15	14.6	17.6	-3.02	14.1	13.5	0.62
Hassan Whiteside	79	79	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.33	10	-7	17	14.7	17.5	-2.83	13.6	15.5	-1.90
James Johnson	78	78	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.37	7	-4	11	14.9	16.8	-1.92	13.8	14.5	-0.77
Tyler Johnson	76	76	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.35	7	-4	11	15.1	15.9	-0.75	14.2	13.0	1.21
Goran Dragic	79	77	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.49	-9	12	-21	15.6	14.1	1.43	13.3	16.4	-3.11
Rodney McGruder	28	28	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.01	2	1	1	15.2	15.3	-0.06	13.7	14.0	-0.31
Wayne Ellington	38	37	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.03	0	3	-3	16.5	14.6	1.92	14.6	13.5	1.14
Okaro White	21	20	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.04	-4	7	-11	16.8	14.9	1.92	14.5	13.8	0.77
Willie Reed	20	19	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	0.08	-7	10	-17	17.5	14.7	2.83	15.5	13.6	1.90

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ian Mahinmi	37	36	0.22	-0.72	0.93	0.13	3	-6	9	14.7	13.5	1.23	16.3	14.7	1.59
Brandon Jennings	28	29	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.04	2	-5	7	14.4	13.8	0.64	16.6	14.7	1.88
Tomas Satoransky	12	13	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.01	0	-3	3	13.1	14.1	-0.97	16.7	15.1	1.61
Jason Smith	18	19	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.01	-1	-2	1	13.9	13.9	-0.06	17.2	14.8	2.31
Bojan Bogdanovic	47	47	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.03	-6	3	-9	14.9	13.1	1.79	16.3	14.4	1.83
Bradley Beal	78	79	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.44	3	-6	9	13.7	14.7	-1.02	15.3	15.2	0.05
Markieff Morris	65	65	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.44	0	-3	3	13.4	15.0	-1.60	14.6	16.6	-1.97
Kelly Oubre Jr.	69	69	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.36	-3	0	-3	13.9	14.0	-0.09	14.7	16.6	-1.88
John Wall	75	75	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.38	-7	4	-11	14.0	13.6	0.43	14.6	17.6	-3.02
Marcin Gortat	61	63	-0.72	0.22	-0.93	-0.54	-6	3	-9	13.5	14.7	-1.23	14.7	16.3	-1.59

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.65,0.64,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.41,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.41,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.48,0.38,0.47,0.42,0.53,0.6,0.61,0.53,0.46,0.55,0.26,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 97, PHX 96	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.5,0.54,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.34,0.33,0.28,0.34,0.48,0.47,0.38,0.32,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.28,0.43,0.28,0	93.0%
CHA 105, DEN 101	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.57,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.34,0.56,0.41,0.36,0.42,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.6,0.53,0.54,0.78,0.7,0.46,0.53,0.26,0	91.6%
LAC 107, GSW 102	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.6,0.65,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.51,0.61,0.61,0.52,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.43,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.45,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.48,0.41,0.4,0.3,0.38,0.48,0.43,0.37,0.53,0.71,0.67,0.56,0.64,0.57,0.42,0	91.4%