NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	104		Excitement	8.7 [190]		MVP	Jimmy Butler (CHI): +69.2%
Chicago Bulls	106		Comeback	14.3 [132]		LVP	Robin Lopez (CHI): -10.9%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dennis Schroder	0.16	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.31,0.2,0.16	0.12	0.04	0.00	19	69%	0.43	3	-0.27	4	100%	0.03
Mike Muscala	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.08	0.04	0.00	4	112%	0.15	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.00	0.02	-0.03	3	83%	0.09	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.08,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03	0.04	-0.02	-0.00	16	54%	0.09	2	-0.06	5	100%	0.03
Kent Bazemore	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	8	37%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.02	0.00	12	50%	0.04	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Mike Dunleavy	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kris Humphries	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Taurean Prince	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.01	9	37%	-0.02	2	-0.06	6	50%	-0.05
Ersan Ilyasova	-0.09	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.09,-0.09	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	15	43%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.16,0.24,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.26,0.32,0.69	0.69	0.18	0.52	0.00	20	66%	0.73	1	-0.04	10	100%	0.12
Denzel Valentine	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.04	-0.00	11	59%	0.12	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.05	-0.00	18	69%	0.26	7	-0.18	0	0%	0.00
Paul Zipser	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	0.01	0.02	5	83%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Michael Carter-Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	5	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Mirotic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	8	44%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Joffrey Lauvergne	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Portis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	4	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robin Lopez	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	9	44%	-0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.0	1.6	27.6	15.4	27.2	1.8	35.0	130.5
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +12.2%

CHI +29.6%

ATL -12.1%

CHI +19.1%

CHI +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	CHI	NBA	ATL	CHI	NBA
this game	14.3	15.2	14.8	107.2	108.2	107.7
season	14.4	15.1		104.2	105.9
opponent	14.8	14.9		105.9	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	15.8	14.4	13.0	14.1	14.3
CHI	16.2	12.3	15.2	18.0	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Muscala	35	36	0.50	-1.00	1.50	0.09	14	-16	30	13.7	14.6	-0.87	17.1	14.1	2.97
Jose Calderon	21	22	0.12	-0.62	0.74	0.06	2	-4	6	14.0	14.4	-0.32	16.9	14.8	2.10
Mike Dunleavy	24	25	0.12	-0.62	0.73	0.03	3	-5	8	15.5	13.9	1.54	14.8	15.4	-0.64
Taurean Prince	54	53	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.15	-3	1	-4	14.1	14.6	-0.51	15.2	15.2	0.02
Kris Humphries	13	13	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.01	1	-3	4	16.2	14.0	2.14	15.3	15.2	0.08
Kent Bazemore	42	43	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.55	4	-6	10	13.6	14.8	-1.16	15.0	15.4	-0.34
Dennis Schroder	76	75	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.46	-2	0	-2	14.4	14.0	0.32	14.9	16.4	-1.57
Dwight Howard	76	77	-0.75	0.25	-1.01	-0.52	-8	6	-14	14.3	14.1	0.20	14.8	16.9	-2.06
Ersan Ilyasova	70	70	-0.77	0.27	-1.04	-0.45	-11	9	-20	14.2	14.6	-0.41	14.7	16.5	-1.72
Tim Hardaway Jr.	74	76	-0.85	0.35	-1.19	-0.55	-10	8	-18	14.5	13.8	0.68	15.4	14.7	0.65

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robin Lopez	70	72	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.51	8	-6	14	15.8	13.8	2.03	14.4	13.9	0.56
Nikola Mirotic	63	64	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.23	17	-15	32	14.3	16.9	-2.57	14.5	13.9	0.54
Rajon Rondo	73	72	0.70	-0.20	0.89	0.55	5	-3	8	15.2	15.2	-0.01	14.1	15.0	-0.89
Jimmy Butler	86	86	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.42	1	1	0	15.4	14.2	1.22	14.1	15.5	-1.41
Paul Zipser	56	57	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.21	1	1	0	15.0	15.6	-0.63	14.4	14.2	0.21
Denzel Valentine	56	54	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.22	0	2	-2	15.5	14.9	0.62	14.3	14.3	-0.09
Michael Carter-Williams	24	23	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.20	-1	3	-4	15.0	15.3	-0.26	15.0	14.1	0.86
Joffrey Lauvergne	28	25	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	-0.07	-6	8	-14	13.8	15.8	-2.03	13.9	14.4	-0.56
Bobby Portis	34	32	-0.52	1.02	-1.53	-0.08	-15	17	-32	16.7	14.5	2.25	14.3	14.3	0.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.66,0.61,0.56,0.7,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.75,0.79,0.76,0.73,0.65,0.65,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.3,0.3,0.21,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.19,0.09,0.15,0.22,0.25,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 85, TOR 89	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.53,0.62,0.56,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.67,0.64,0.54,0.62,0.72,0.7,0.67,0.73,0.77,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.63,0.55,0.38,0.3,0.18,0.25,0.23,0.21,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.23,0.59,1	93.4%
GSW 91, DEN 94	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.44,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.59,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.5,0.62,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.76,0.74,0.78,0.56,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.46,0.34,0.38,0.29,0.37,0.31,0.19,0.2,0.19,0.15,0.14,0.73,1	90.5%
TOR 101, SAC 107	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.67,0.51,0.65,0.66,0.55,0.67,0.61,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.38,0.18,0.12,0.11,0.15,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.22,0.32,0.63,1	90.5%