NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	125		Excitement	5.1 [802]		MVP	Nikola Jokic (DEN): +19.7%
Chicago Bulls	107		Comeback	2.9 [317]		LVP	Jimmy Butler (CHI): -11.8%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jokic	0.20	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.14,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.08	0.07	-0.05	10	79%	0.22	3	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Danilo Gallinari	0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.19	0.01	0.06	10	85%	0.14	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Wilson Chandler	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.02	0.00	13	59%	0.10	2	-0.00	8	87%	0.02
Jameer Nelson	0.08	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	6	100%	0.15	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Murray	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.02	0.02	9	64%	0.09	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Gary Harris	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	0.01	0.03	12	62%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	5	60%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roy Hibbert	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juan Hernangomez	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Will Barton	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	15	50%	-0.03	5	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.06	-0.01	15	59%	0.15	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Cristiano Felicio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.00	0.00	4	90%	0.12	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Bobby Portis	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.01	-0.03	10	60%	0.08	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerian Grant	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	0.01	0.02	2	117%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nikola Mirotic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	4	67%	0.04	2	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Joffrey Lauvergne	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	3	67%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Morrow	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robin Lopez	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.06	-0.01	-0.06	14	36%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.06	-0.00	0.07	14	66%	0.04	3	-0.05	1	100%	-0.00
Denzel Valentine	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	7	50%	0.02	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Cameron Payne	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.01	0.05	10	30%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.03	0.01	13	29%	-0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	19.5	2.4	27.6	15.5	26.2	1.8	26.0	119.0
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +25.7%

DEN +20.5%

DEN +4.6%

CHI -1.6%

DEN +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	CHI	NBA	DEN	CHI	NBA
this game	13.4	15.3	14.8	126.3	105.9	107.7
season	14.4	15.1		111.6	105.9
opponent	14.8	14.5		105.9	111.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	12.0	13.3	13.3	14.9	13.4
CHI	18.0	13.9	17.2	12.8	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wilson Chandler	58	58	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.06	16	2	14	12.4	15.0	-2.59	17.3	12.7	4.69
Nikola Jokic	65	67	0.52	-0.02	0.54	-0.04	19	-1	20	12.8	14.6	-1.71	16.9	12.3	4.56
Mason Plumlee	48	47	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.01	15	3	12	13.6	13.2	0.41	14.6	16.0	-1.48
Will Barton	61	61	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.02	14	4	10	14.0	12.5	1.56	14.0	17.3	-3.32
Jameer Nelson	59	61	0.37	0.13	0.25	-0.10	16	2	14	13.1	13.9	-0.78	17.1	12.6	4.51
Jamal Murray	40	40	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.07	2	16	-14	13.9	13.1	0.78	12.6	17.1	-4.51
Juan Hernangomez	15	15	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.03	2	16	-14	14.5	13.2	1.22	14.9	15.4	-0.56
Gary Harris	74	78	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.18	9	9	0	13.4	13.5	-0.06	15.2	15.9	-0.68
Mike Miller	4	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	21	-24	14.5	13.4	1.11	10.2	15.6	-5.31
Roy Hibbert	4	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	21	-24	14.5	13.4	1.11	10.2	15.6	-5.31
Danilo Gallinari	67	70	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	-0.18	3	15	-12	13.9	12.5	1.43	14.8	16.7	-1.92

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerian Grant	25	24	0.07	-0.57	0.63	0.07	0	-18	18	18.6	14.3	4.32	12.6	13.7	-1.12
Joffrey Lauvergne	8	8	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-23	28	11.7	15.7	-3.91	16.4	13.2	3.20
Anthony Morrow	8	8	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-23	28	11.7	15.7	-3.91	16.4	13.2	3.20
Dwyane Wade	59	58	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.33	-16	-2	-14	16.5	13.7	2.75	13.4	13.5	-0.17
Robin Lopez	52	52	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.04	-4	-14	10	17.4	13.2	4.16	12.6	14.4	-1.85
Bobby Portis	56	55	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.13	-1	-17	16	16.1	14.4	1.75	14.2	12.5	1.72
Cameron Payne	36	35	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.06	-5	-13	8	13.8	16.2	-2.39	14.8	12.7	2.07
Cristiano Felicio	31	30	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.01	-11	-7	-4	13.8	16.0	-2.22	13.6	13.4	0.19
Nikola Mirotic	45	44	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	0.16	-17	-1	-16	14.4	16.1	-1.75	12.5	14.2	-1.72
Denzel Valentine	58	58	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.04	-11	-7	-4	13.3	18.1	-4.82	14.3	12.2	2.07
Rajon Rondo	54	53	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.01	-15	-3	-12	14.4	16.4	-2.06	12.6	14.4	-1.79
Jimmy Butler	73	70	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.15	-20	2	-22	16.4	12.6	3.84	13.0	14.6	-1.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.62,0.65,0.72,0.66,0.61,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.72,0.64,0.71,0.55,0.59,0.48,0.52,0.33,0.25,0.19,0.11,0.02,0.06,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 115, SAC 98	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.57,0.65,0.64,0.59,0.56,0.61,0.51,0.63,0.71,0.58,0.7,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.35,0.38,0.41,0.26,0.21,0.1,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.2%
UTA 89, PHI 83	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.57,0.64,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.61,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.57,0.66,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.37,0.18,0.15,0.22,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	93.0%
NOH 96, CLE 81	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.36,0.43,0.47,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.64,0.55,0.55,0.44,0.41,0.33,0.29,0.22,0.1,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	93.0%