NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	109		Excitement	6.1 [625]		MVP	Robert Covington (PHI): +14.5%
Philadelphia 76ers	117		Comeback	1.1 [604]		LVP	Rodney McGruder (MIA): -9.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Johnson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06	0.05	0.03	0.02	15	60%	0.15	4	-0.09	13	69%	-0.02
Tyler Johnson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.02	0.01	13	57%	0.04	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Willie Reed	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	3	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Okaro White	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Babbitt	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	-0.02	-0.05	14	48%	0.08	4	-0.09	5	100%	0.02
Hassan Whiteside	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.02	11	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Goran Dragic	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.05	-0.03	0.08	21	65%	0.11	7	-0.17	4	100%	0.02
Rodney McGruder	-0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	6	33%	-0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Robert Covington	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.10	0.06	0.02	12	73%	0.19	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Nerlens Noel	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.10	0.03	-0.00	12	70%	0.16	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.01
Dario Saric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.05	0.02	-0.06	15	56%	0.14	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.02
Nik Stauskas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	8	61%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Richaun Holmes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	2	86%	0.08	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
TJ McConnell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	7	55%	0.04	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.02
Sergio Rodriguez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	5	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Gerald Henderson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	0.03	11	44%	-0.03	1	-0.00	10	100%	0.03
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	12	47%	-0.02	2	-0.05	6	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.5	2.3	29.6	15.2	29.0	1.8	40.3	145.8
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHI +23.6%

MIA -0.3%

MIA -5.2%

PHI +31.4%

PHI +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	PHI	NBA	MIA	PHI	NBA
this game	14.9	12.9	14.8	104.8	113.6	107.7
season	15.4	14.5		106.7	101.9
opponent	14.4	14.5		107.6	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.8	14.8	16.1	14.0	14.9
PHI	14.0	13.5	13.3	11.2	12.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Willie Reed	30	29	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.12	4	-12	16	15.2	14.8	0.40	14.2	12.4	1.73
Okaro White	39	38	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.07	1	-9	10	14.2	15.3	-1.17	13.9	12.4	1.53
James Johnson	77	74	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.41	10	-18	28	15.2	14.0	1.19	13.4	11.7	1.73
Luke Babbitt	16	17	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.08	-11	3	-14	15.2	14.8	0.36	11.1	13.3	-2.17
Goran Dragic	80	82	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.25	-4	-4	0	14.2	17.0	-2.75	12.6	14.2	-1.64
Rodney McGruder	59	56	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	0.04	-14	6	-20	15.2	14.5	0.66	12.6	13.3	-0.67
Wayne Ellington	76	77	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.23	-6	-2	-4	15.1	14.3	0.82	12.9	13.0	-0.04
Tyler Johnson	69	68	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.21	-8	0	-8	15.1	14.4	0.73	13.0	12.8	0.16
Hassan Whiteside	74	74	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.14	-12	4	-16	14.8	15.2	-0.40	12.4	14.2	-1.73

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nerlens Noel	73	72	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.00	17	-9	26	11.9	15.5	-3.58	14.4	15.9	-1.52
Robert Covington	68	70	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.16	11	-3	14	11.8	15.1	-3.26	14.9	14.8	0.13
TJ McConnell	71	72	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.08	13	-5	18	12.0	14.9	-2.91	15.0	14.7	0.24
Dario Saric	56	55	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.30	5	3	2	12.4	13.5	-1.06	15.9	13.8	2.10
Nik Stauskas	62	61	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.12	9	-1	10	14.2	11.0	3.21	15.3	14.3	0.91
Gerald Henderson	65	67	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.17	4	4	0	12.5	13.6	-1.07	14.7	15.2	-0.56
Ersan Ilyasova	47	49	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.04	3	5	-2	13.5	12.4	1.06	13.8	15.9	-2.10
Sergio Rodriguez	32	32	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.18	-5	13	-18	14.9	12.0	2.91	14.7	15.0	-0.24
Richaun Holmes	30	32	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.26	-9	17	-26	15.5	11.9	3.58	15.9	14.4	1.52
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot	11	10	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.08	-8	16	-24	14.9	12.7	2.21	13.6	15.0	-1.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.55,0.61,0.62,0.55,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.64,0.74,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.74,0.78,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.71,0.69,0.76,0.86,0.88,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.9,0.88,0.94,0.91,0.87,0.88,1,1,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 108, CLE 117	0.5,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.47,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.62,0.54,0.53,0.61,0.59,0.64,0.72,0.7,0.63,0.63,0.69,0.69,0.75,0.73,0.68,0.72,0.81,0.91,0.87,0.88,0.87,0.81,0.85,0.86,0.86,0.94,0.95,0.86,0.93,0.98,0.99,1,1	94.6%
NJN 100, GSW 109	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.53,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.69,0.64,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.61,0.76,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.7,0.78,0.79,0.74,0.78,0.79,0.83,0.88,0.92,0.91,0.83,0.93,0.99,0.94,1,1	94.5%
CLE 102, GSW 119	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.56,0.65,0.67,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.56,0.63,0.68,0.77,0.72,0.76,0.67,0.79,0.75,0.66,0.66,0.83,0.82,0.78,0.81,0.88,0.83,0.93,0.86,0.95,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.3%