NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	108		Excitement	3.2 [1157]		MVP	Luke Babbitt (MIA): +9.5%
Milwaukee Bucks	116		Comeback	1.0 [1176]		LVP	Dion Waiters (MIA): -11.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luke Babbitt	0.10	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.15	0.00	0.06	9	89%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	-0.00	7	67%	0.05	1	-0.00	1	100%	0.00
Tyler Johnson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.01	12	54%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Rodney McGruder	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	0.00	0.01	5	70%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	7	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Williams	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	0	0%	-0.00	1	-0.01	2	0%	-0.01
Goran Dragic	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.05	0.00	0.07	13	59%	0.01	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.01
Hassan Whiteside	-0.03	0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.06	0.00	0.09	12	63%	0.00	2	-0.03	6	83%	0.00
Dion Waiters	-0.12	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.05	-0.03	0.04	17	37%	-0.09	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.01	-0.01	12	68%	0.10	3	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	0.00	0.01	5	100%	0.08	2	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Tony Snell	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.11	0.00	0.04	8	78%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Malcolm Brogdon	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	6	72%	0.06	1	-0.00	6	100%	0.02
Jabari Parker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	-0.01	-0.04	20	52%	0.07	2	-0.02	6	50%	-0.02
Greg Monroe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.00	-0.04	13	50%	0.05	1	-0.00	6	100%	0.02
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.01	5	60%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matthew Dellavedova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	5	56%	0.04	2	-0.03	6	100%	0.02
Thon Maker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Henson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	5	20%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.5	27.9	15.0	27.1	2.5	29.5	129.7
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +17.6%

MIL +12.3%

MIL +16.3%

MIL +1.5%

MIL +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MIL	NBA	MIA	MIL	NBA
this game	15.3	15.5	14.8	117.4	122.1	107.7
season	15.4	14.9		106.7	107.4
opponent	15.3	14.5		107.8	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.7	17.4	15.6	13.0	15.3
MIL	13.1	17.7	14.4	17.0	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Udonis Haslem	8	9	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.01	0	-8	8	12.1	15.6	-3.51	12.4	15.8	-3.35
Derrick Williams	13	14	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.01	-3	-5	2	14.8	15.4	-0.65	14.6	15.6	-0.97
Wayne Ellington	29	29	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.20	3	-11	14	16.7	14.7	1.99	14.5	15.9	-1.38
James Johnson	53	55	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.33	6	-14	20	13.7	17.6	-3.88	14.7	16.6	-1.95
Tyler Johnson	59	59	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.32	5	-13	18	14.1	17.5	-3.41	16.5	13.7	2.78
Rodney McGruder	38	39	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.07	-10	2	-12	16.0	14.9	1.10	15.3	15.6	-0.37
Luke Babbitt	59	62	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.24	-4	-4	0	15.5	15.0	0.56	15.6	15.2	0.40
Dion Waiters	58	60	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.13	-8	0	-8	16.2	13.8	2.43	15.5	15.4	0.12
Hassan Whiteside	58	59	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.07	-11	3	-14	15.9	14.4	1.50	15.9	14.8	1.12
Goran Dragic	65	68	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.06	-13	5	-18	15.2	15.7	-0.48	15.1	16.4	-1.30

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malcolm Brogdon	57	57	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.15	8	0	8	16.5	13.9	2.63	15.0	15.8	-0.76
Jabari Parker	66	65	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.10	9	-1	10	16.4	13.4	2.92	15.1	15.8	-0.64
Giannis Antetokounmpo	69	67	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.27	3	5	-2	16.4	13.0	3.46	15.9	13.9	1.93
Tony Snell	53	53	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.14	5	3	2	16.7	13.9	2.77	15.9	14.5	1.37
Michael Beasley	45	44	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.08	7	1	6	13.6	17.2	-3.56	15.4	15.3	0.12
Jason Terry	49	47	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.08	7	1	6	14.2	16.8	-2.54	14.9	15.8	-0.84
Greg Monroe	53	50	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.25	0	8	-8	14.5	16.6	-2.10	14.8	16.0	-1.20
John Henson	35	34	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.05	4	4	0	16.7	14.7	2.01	15.8	15.1	0.74
Matthew Dellavedova	38	35	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.12	0	8	-8	13.9	16.5	-2.63	15.8	15.0	0.76
Thon Maker	10	8	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.08	-3	11	-14	11.5	15.9	-4.44	12.1	15.6	-3.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.56,0.63,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.72,0.81,0.81,0.87,0.92,0.89,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.91,0.89,0.93,0.93,0.96,0.93,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.94,0.89,0.91,0.86,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 93, MIA 113	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.72,0.76,0.8,0.86,0.84,0.85,0.86,0.84,0.85,0.9,0.88,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.84,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	96.4%
SAS 105, DEN 121	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.59,0.6,0.63,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.67,0.75,0.75,0.7,0.76,0.8,0.89,0.85,0.89,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.93,0.91,0.94,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	96.4%
POR 93, OKC 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.62,0.68,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.83,0.86,0.85,0.8,0.86,0.9,0.91,0.89,0.93,0.91,0.95,0.94,0.91,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.99,1,1,1	96.3%