NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	125		Excitement	13.0 [8]		MVP	Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (DET): +70.9%
Portland Trail Blazers	124		Comeback	17.2 [72]		LVP	Mason Plumlee (POR): -45.0%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0.71	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.21,0.71	0.16	0.56	0.01	14	79%	0.84	3	-0.13	5	80%	0.01
Andre Drummond	0.23	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.14	0.09	0.01	20	65%	0.25	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Marcus Morris	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	-0.09	0.15	-0.02	17	29%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	0.08	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.16,0.13,0.14,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.02	0.02	26	55%	0.13	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01
Ish Smith	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.00	-0.01	6	75%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stanley Johnson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.03	0.00	3	83%	0.11	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jon Leuer	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aron Baynes	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tobias Harris	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.05	-0.10	0.00	16	44%	-0.09	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
CJ McCollum	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.24,0.24,0.38,0.48,0.4,0.69,0.69,0.83,0.93,0.93,0.66	0.66	0.17	0.50	0.01	28	62%	0.68	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Allen Crabbe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.36,0.31,0.24,0.24,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41	0.41	0.27	0.14	0.00	15	97%	0.50	2	-0.09	1	100%	0.01
Al-Farouq Aminu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.11	0.06	-0.04	10	76%	0.24	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Meyers Leonard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	8	37%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Noah Vonleh	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Harkless	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	4	42%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Evan Turner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.17	-0.07	-0.10	0.00	5	40%	-0.03	3	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Damian Lillard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.24	-0.24	-0.02	-0.22	0.00	16	56%	-0.10	5	-0.14	4	75%	-0.00
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.19,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.38,-0.45	-0.45	-0.13	-0.32	0.00	12	31%	-0.32	3	-0.13	2	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1		OT2	Total
this game	26.1	2.5	25.5	15.3	21.9	2.0	37.5	1.0	12.1	1.6	15.4	160.9
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	2.2	17.9	2.2	17.9	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +36.2%

DET +3.7%

POR -18.8%

DET +30.1%

POR -1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	POR	NBA	DET	POR	NBA
this game	14.7	16.4	14.8	110.6	111.7	107.7
season	15.0	14.9		105.0	108.6
opponent	14.5	15.1		109.8	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DET	13.0	14.3	14.5	15.5	18.4	14.6
POR	16.4	14.5	16.8	15.1	21.9	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Morris	89	90	0.93	-0.43	1.36	0.61	11	-10	21	14.8	14.4	0.40	16.4	16.6	-0.22
Andre Drummond	100	98	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.46	5	-4	9	14.7	14.3	0.43	16.7	13.8	2.89
Tobias Harris	71	73	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.37	3	-2	5	13.9	16.0	-2.01	17.0	15.3	1.68
Reggie Jackson	90	90	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.39	2	-1	3	15.6	11.3	4.31	16.2	17.2	-1.04
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	93	91	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.28	1	0	1	14.6	14.9	-0.32	16.8	14.5	2.31
Ish Smith	43	41	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.17	-1	2	-3	13.0	15.7	-2.77	15.9	16.7	-0.78
Jon Leuer	13	13	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.00	-1	2	-3	14.2	14.8	-0.61	15.7	16.5	-0.80
Aron Baynes	13	13	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.07	-4	5	-9	14.3	14.7	-0.43	13.8	16.7	-2.89
Stanley Johnson	53	46	-0.36	0.86	-1.22	-0.04	-11	12	-23	15.7	13.8	1.86	15.8	16.8	-1.09

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al-Farouq Aminu	69	69	0.11	-0.61	0.71	-0.13	8	-9	17	16.9	15.5	1.40	15.7	13.1	2.66
CJ McCollum	87	87	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.25	10	-11	21	16.3	16.7	-0.34	14.7	14.6	0.15
Damian Lillard	78	82	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-5	9	17.3	14.3	2.98	15.4	12.7	2.73
Meyers Leonard	39	40	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.04	-2	1	-3	15.1	17.1	-2.03	13.0	15.6	-2.58
Noah Vonleh	29	28	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.09	-3	2	-5	14.8	17.0	-2.12	13.4	15.1	-1.68
Allen Crabbe	64	67	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.08	-6	5	-11	15.6	17.5	-1.93	13.9	15.9	-1.99
Mason Plumlee	72	73	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.43	1	-2	3	17.1	15.1	2.03	15.6	13.0	2.58
Maurice Harkless	49	50	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.33	-4	3	-7	16.1	16.6	-0.56	14.8	14.6	0.27
Evan Turner	52	53	-0.75	0.25	-1.01	-0.40	-12	11	-23	15.4	17.3	-1.90	13.0	16.2	-3.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.65,0.7,0.71,0.74,0.81,0.7,0.83,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.67,0.72,0.63,0.58,0.35,0.27,0.25,0.37,0.1,0.05,0.5,0.55,0.72,0.78,0.42,0.5,0.47,0.54,0.75,0.84,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 109, IND 101	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.61,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.54,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.47,0.48,0.58,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.62,0.55,0.64,0.7,0.79,0.77,0.83,0.72,0.63,0.67,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.75,0.8,0.74,0.59,0.34,0.27,0.19,0.36,0.17,0.02,0	86.9%
WAS 90, CHI 83	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.73,0.68,0.71,0.66,0.62,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.35,0.34,0.25,0.29,0.16,0.08,0	86.1%
SAS 90, SEA 82	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.68,0.72,0.67,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.69,0.63,0.78,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.58,0.68,0.64,0.6,0.28,0.19,0.11,0.01,0,0	86.0%