NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	119		Excitement	9.3 [124]		MVP	Kevin Durant (GSW): +43.9%
Detroit Pistons	113		Comeback	2.5 [707]		LVP	Draymond Green (GSW): -21.5%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0.44	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.44,0.44	0.20	0.24	0.00	18	80%	0.59	4	-0.15	4	75%	0.01
JaVale McGee	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.12	0.05	0.00	7	88%	0.20	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
David West	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.04	0.08	0.00	4	75%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Curry	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.03	15	69%	0.26	5	-0.18	6	100%	0.02
Ian Clark	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	2	100%	0.13	1	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Zaza Pachulia	0.05	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.02	0.01	2	100%	0.10	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Klay Thompson	0.01	0,0,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	14	57%	0.10	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.02
Shaun Livingston	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Iguodala	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Draymond Green	-0.21	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.22,-0.32,-0.19,-0.21	-0.15	-0.07	-0.00	8	25%	-0.09	4	-0.12	4	75%	0.01

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tobias Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.4,0.4,0.4	0.40	0.18	0.21	-0.00	14	76%	0.43	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.04
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.14,0.15	0.15	0.12	0.04	0.01	18	62%	0.18	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Aron Baynes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	4	75%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jon Leuer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	7	57%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ish Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	7	60%	0.08	2	-0.09	1	0%	-0.01
Andre Drummond	0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.02	7	65%	0.06	3	-0.08	9	33%	-0.10
Reggie Jackson	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.23,-0.23,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.04	-0.01	17	45%	0.08	5	-0.20	4	75%	0.01
Marcus Morris	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	7	14%	-0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stanley Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.03	-0.14	0.00	4	42%	-0.05	1	-0.12	4	50%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.4	30.3	16.4	29.2	0.7	37.3	141.6
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +58.1%

GSW +11.6%

DET -1.5%

DET -19.9%

GSW +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	DET	NBA	GSW	DET	NBA
this game	13.1	13.9	14.8	112.3	105.6	107.7
season	13.5	15.0		114.9	105.0
opponent	15.1	15.1		106.4	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	12.3	12.9	13.2	14.2	13.1
DET	13.0	13.3	14.5	15.2	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Klay Thompson	86	86	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.38	15	-9	24	12.5	15.9	-3.45	14.1	13.4	0.63
Kevin Durant	72	73	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.04	17	-11	28	12.2	15.0	-2.75	13.9	14.0	-0.05
Draymond Green	84	84	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.41	4	2	2	13.0	13.4	-0.33	13.8	14.5	-0.69
Stephen Curry	78	79	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.30	6	0	6	13.0	13.3	-0.25	13.4	15.4	-1.98
Ian Clark	31	31	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.16	3	3	0	13.7	12.8	0.90	14.6	13.7	0.96
Andre Iguodala	57	58	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.29	-6	12	-18	14.3	11.8	2.51	13.2	14.8	-1.59
David West	30	31	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.04	5	1	4	13.1	13.1	-0.01	15.3	13.4	1.95
JaVale McGee	18	18	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.09	-2	8	-10	14.6	12.8	1.82	13.0	14.1	-1.12
Shaun Livingston	32	33	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.08	-6	12	-18	13.5	12.9	0.61	14.9	13.5	1.37
Zaza Pachulia	42	42	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	-0.10	-6	12	-18	13.2	13.0	0.14	14.1	13.8	0.30

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aron Baynes	40	36	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.04	0	-6	6	14.3	13.7	0.66	13.3	13.0	0.31
Ish Smith	38	37	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.01	-5	-1	-4	14.9	13.4	1.53	13.5	12.9	0.67
Marcus Morris	43	45	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.05	-4	-2	-2	14.8	13.4	1.43	13.4	12.9	0.44
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	93	91	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.31	2	-8	10	13.4	17.7	-4.35	13.1	13.4	-0.35
Jon Leuer	75	74	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.07	-6	0	-6	14.0	13.9	0.09	12.9	13.7	-0.84
Reggie Jackson	69	69	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.33	-1	-5	4	13.4	14.9	-1.53	12.9	13.5	-0.67
Tobias Harris	72	71	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.25	-5	-1	-4	13.5	14.9	-1.37	13.2	12.9	0.24
Andre Drummond	67	70	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.32	-4	-2	-2	13.7	14.3	-0.66	13.0	13.3	-0.31
Stanley Johnson	38	37	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.26	-7	1	-8	15.2	13.3	1.90	13.3	13.0	0.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.44,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.44,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.59,0.51,0.6,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.48,0.41,0.31,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.34,0.38,0.52,0.67,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.33,0.61,0.29,0.55,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 94, CHA 90	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.41,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.62,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.73,0.58,0.52,0.31,0.41,0.37,0.29,0.34,0.38,0.43,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.46,0.37,0.34,0.04,0	91.2%
MEM 98, POR 97	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.39,0.39,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.69,0.71,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.35,0.35,0.3,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.62,0.52,0.58,0.41,0.29,0.39,0.32,0.22,0.33,0.17,0	90.7%
DAL 112, MIL 110	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.3,0.38,0.43,0.33,0.37,0.47,0.4,0.34,0.53,0.45,0.35,0.16,0	90.4%