NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	136		Excitement	13.5 [7]		MVP	Serge Ibaka (ORL): +37.3%
Miami Heat	130		Comeback	30.8 [41]		LVP	Josh Richardson (MIA): -21.9%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Serge Ibaka	0.37	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.33,0.33,0.37	0.11	0.26	-0.00	15	67%	0.49	1	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.22,0.22,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.3	0.06	0.27	0.04	9	58%	0.30	0	0.00	6	100%	0.10
Elfrid Payton	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11	0.11	0.02	0.02	13	67%	0.17	1	-0.06	7	86%	0.08
Aaron Gordon	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.00	8	60%	0.10	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
Evan Fournier	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.16,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,0.02,0.02	0.09	-0.02	0.04	22	57%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Jodie Meeks	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.03	0.00	5	30%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bismack Biyombo	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	4	0%	-0.07
D.J. Augustin	-0.09	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	9	33%	-0.06	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Nikola Vucevic	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.07,0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	0.03	-0.14	-0.01	20	58%	0.12	4	-0.23	5	60%	-0.03

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.21,0.22	0.22	0.23	0.05	0.06	20	71%	0.22	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.09
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.15	0.03	0.02	22	64%	0.20	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.05
Luke Babbitt	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	-0.02	-0.02	4	80%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.02	10	60%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh McRoberts	0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Willie Reed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,0.04,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.05,0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.18,-0.18,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	17	37%	-0.04	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.02
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.04	-0.06	0.06	17	47%	-0.11	4	-0.07	6	67%	-0.16
Josh Richardson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.22	-0.22	-0.10	-0.13	-0.01	12	32%	-0.15	2	-0.07	4	75%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1		OT2	Total
this game	23.2	1.5	33.5	15.6	30.8	1.8	37.2	2.4	24.7	1.7	17.0	189.5
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	2.2	17.9	2.2	17.9	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +58.8%

ORL +40.4%

MIA -22.3%

MIA -18.4%

MIA -8.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIA	NBA	ORL	MIA	NBA
this game	13.7	16.0	14.8	115.3	111.1	107.7
season	14.6	15.4		103.0	106.7
opponent	14.5	14.9		105.9	109.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
ORL	15.0	13.9	13.6	13.9	13.0	14.0
MIA	15.7	14.9	17.7	16.1	17.0	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Vucevic	83	82	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.34	13	-7	20	13.1	15.0	-1.85	16.0	15.8	0.18
Elfrid Payton	73	72	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.44	4	2	2	13.4	14.2	-0.79	15.7	16.4	-0.72
Jeff Green	68	68	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.50	1	5	-4	12.9	14.7	-1.86	15.0	17.3	-2.29
Evan Fournier	89	88	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.24	8	-2	10	13.4	14.4	-0.99	16.2	15.1	1.14
Serge Ibaka	82	79	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.22	8	-2	10	13.7	13.5	0.20	16.5	14.9	1.57
Jodie Meeks	27	28	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.07	3	3	0	13.2	13.8	-0.58	15.0	16.3	-1.26
Aaron Gordon	54	53	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	4	-2	14.6	12.9	1.74	17.2	14.9	2.29
D.J. Augustin	53	54	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.09	-3	9	-12	14.2	13.3	0.87	15.7	16.2	-0.47
Bismack Biyombo	61	61	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	-0.04	-6	12	-18	14.9	12.4	2.48	15.8	16.1	-0.36

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh McRoberts	31	32	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.03	-1	-5	4	17.2	15.5	1.68	15.2	13.1	2.08
James Johnson	59	59	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.07	0	-6	6	14.8	17.1	-2.27	12.8	14.5	-1.75
Willie Reed	24	23	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.00	-4	-2	-2	14.5	16.3	-1.83	13.3	13.7	-0.40
Luke Babbitt	34	31	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.16	1	-7	8	14.3	16.6	-2.30	13.8	13.6	0.14
Justise Winslow	90	93	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.24	3	-9	12	16.1	15.4	0.76	13.9	12.8	1.05
Hassan Whiteside	90	92	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.26	-2	-4	2	16.7	13.5	3.17	14.1	12.0	2.14
Tyler Johnson	80	81	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.09	-9	3	-12	15.8	16.4	-0.62	12.7	15.7	-3.00
Josh Richardson	88	87	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.38	-4	-2	-2	16.3	14.9	1.41	14.0	12.7	1.26
Goran Dragic	89	92	-0.80	0.30	-1.11	-0.39	-14	8	-22	16.2	15.2	1.02	13.6	14.0	-0.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.43,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.79,0.75,0.7,0.69,0.69,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.68,0.72,0.63,0.56,0.64,0.66,0.78,0.82,0.83,0.73,0.53,0.35,0.39,0.61,0.72,0.67,0.84,0.54,0.31,0.37,0.67,0.96,0.54,0.54,0.36,0.29,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 110, MEM 107	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.62,0.67,0.7,0.68,0.71,0.67,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.68,0.68,0.65,0.59,0.6,0.64,0.74,0.84,0.82,0.76,0.68,0.59,0.58,0.53,0.62,0.85,0.77,0.74,0.54,0.69,0.64,0.77,0.58,0.46,0.48,0.54,0.45,0.31,0	88.5%
BOS 115, ATL 112	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.38,0.41,0.42,0.49,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.48,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.66,0.72,0.61,0.59,0.7,0.65,0.72,0.65,0.64,0.55,0.58,0.68,0.59,0.66,0.67,0.71,0.74,0.7,0.7,0.58,0.68,0.53,0.33,0.4,0.69,0.81,0.68,0.74,0.5,0.33,0.45,0.68,0.85,0	87.0%
ORL 78, NOK 84	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.64,0.72,0.69,0.75,0.63,0.71,0.71,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.71,0.75,0.72,0.73,0.71,0.79,0.81,0.66,0.71,0.67,0.71,0.64,0.6,0.53,0.62,0.71,0.78,0.85,0.46,0.69,0.72,0.67,0.95,1	85.9%