NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	84		Excitement	3.5 [1102]		MVP	Kevin Love (CLE): +13.1%
Cleveland Cavaliers	114		Comeback	1.2 [1224]		LVP	Josh McRoberts (MIA): -9.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Williams	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.10	-0.01	0.02	10	63%	0.07	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.01
Willie Reed	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.00	0.00	-0.04	7	45%	0.04	0	0.00	8	75%	-0.01
Hassan Whiteside	-0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.10	0.00	-0.09	10	40%	0.04	4	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rodney McGruder	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.09	0.00	-0.05	10	30%	-0.02	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	11	54%	0.03	4	-0.07	6	83%	-0.00
Tyler Johnson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	17	35%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	0.03	12	42%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Josh McRoberts	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	-0.02	12	25%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Love	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.12	0.01	0.00	18	70%	0.18	3	-0.05	4	75%	0.00
Kyrie Irving	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.10	0.00	0.01	15	66%	0.14	2	-0.05	5	60%	-0.00
Iman Shumpert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.02	8	62%	0.06	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
DeAndre Liggins	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	3	62%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
James Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kay Felder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.04	4	75%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan McRae	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tristan Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	0.00	0.05	22	56%	0.05	3	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.04	3	62%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	2.4	28.6	15.5	24.2	1.8	27.2	124.1
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +42.4%

MIA -1.6%

CLE +8.5%

MIA -0.0%

CLE +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CLE	NBA	MIA	CLE	NBA
this game	17.3	14.1	14.8	92.3	122.6	107.7
season	15.4	14.9		106.7	113.5
opponent	14.7	14.5		109.6	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.3	15.5	17.0	19.4	17.3
CLE	14.0	13.4	14.3	14.9	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Willie Reed	37	40	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.11	-7	-23	16	16.4	17.8	-1.38	13.2	14.7	-1.47
Josh McRoberts	38	37	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	0.17	-15	-15	0	17.7	16.9	0.83	13.3	14.6	-1.31
Derrick Williams	58	61	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.22	-18	-12	-6	16.8	18.0	-1.17	14.3	13.6	0.70
Goran Dragic	66	67	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.05	-13	-17	4	17.1	17.6	-0.42	13.8	14.7	-0.89
Tyler Johnson	70	72	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.31	-22	-8	-14	17.4	16.7	0.76	14.2	13.5	0.73
Wayne Ellington	64	66	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	0.42	-26	-4	-22	16.6	18.9	-2.27	14.0	14.3	-0.35
Hassan Whiteside	54	53	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	0.27	-23	-7	-16	17.8	16.4	1.38	14.7	13.2	1.47
Rodney McGruder	68	69	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	0.35	-26	-4	-22	17.9	15.3	2.61	14.5	13.0	1.46

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Love	58	57	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.19	20	10	10	14.4	13.5	0.87	17.9	16.1	1.86
LeBron James	73	70	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.28	22	8	14	14.2	13.8	0.30	17.3	17.0	0.33
Kyrie Irving	66	65	0.35	0.15	0.19	-0.01	12	18	-6	13.8	14.7	-0.82	16.4	19.3	-2.82
DeAndre Liggins	50	49	0.34	0.16	0.19	-0.07	14	16	-2	13.8	14.4	-0.62	17.3	17.2	0.16
Iman Shumpert	45	43	0.30	0.20	0.09	-0.17	16	14	2	13.5	14.6	-1.11	15.5	18.9	-3.39
Tristan Thompson	51	53	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.05	9	21	-12	14.5	13.6	0.85	17.4	17.1	0.34
Mike Dunleavy	40	40	0.20	0.30	-0.09	-0.35	19	11	8	14.3	13.9	0.42	18.2	16.5	1.69
Richard Jefferson	32	32	0.18	0.32	-0.15	-0.12	10	20	-10	14.2	14.0	0.11	14.6	18.7	-4.05
Chris Andersen	25	22	0.14	0.36	-0.21	-0.18	11	19	-8	13.4	14.4	-0.99	17.5	17.2	0.27
Jordan McRae	11	10	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.21	7	23	-16	14.1	14.1	0.01	21.7	16.7	5.00
James Jones	7	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.15	5	25	-20	15.4	14.0	1.45	22.3	16.8	5.45
Kay Felder	7	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.15	5	25	-20	15.4	14.0	1.45	22.3	16.8	5.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.57,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.71,0.73,0.69,0.69,0.75,0.8,0.86,0.9,0.93,0.85,0.9,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 95, MEM 112	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.7,0.71,0.67,0.64,0.73,0.8,0.88,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,0.98,0.96,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.8%
SAC 93, SEA 105	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.75,0.74,0.72,0.72,0.7,0.8,0.86,0.86,0.85,0.91,0.95,0.92,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,0.97,0.94,0.99,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,0.98,1,1	96.6%
CHI 93, LAL 108	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.66,0.73,0.72,0.79,0.73,0.8,0.86,0.88,0.92,0.95,0.88,0.84,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.6%