NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	110		Excitement	6.7 [514]		MVP	Kyle Lowry (TOR): +30.1%
Toronto Raptors	124		Comeback	2.9 [835]		LVP	Patrick Patterson (TOR): -9.2%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zach LaVine	0.12	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.15,0.1,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.17	0.03	0.08	20	69%	0.16	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Nemanja Bjelica	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.01	-0.02	5	75%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Ricky Rubio	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	7	47%	0.05	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Karl-Anthony Towns	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	16	53%	0.09	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Cole Aldrich	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.00	3	100%	0.06	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Wiggins	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.06	-0.02	0.03	19	57%	0.10	2	-0.09	6	67%	-0.03
Tyus Jones	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gorgui Dieng	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	9	50%	0.02	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Shabazz Muhammad	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kris Dunn	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	5	40%	-0.04	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.26,0.26,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.15	0.13	-0.02	14	74%	0.37	2	-0.07	6	67%	-0.02
Terrence Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.04	0.09	-0.00	7	56%	0.13	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Cory Joseph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.05	-0.00	8	75%	0.14	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.02	0.00	15	62%	0.13	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
DeMarre Carroll	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.00	-0.03	7	62%	0.08	1	-0.00	2	50%	0.00
Pascal Siakam	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	0.01	0.03	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.04	0.04	20	51%	0.07	2	-0.03	13	92%	0.04
Lucas Nogueira	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.00	5	80%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Norman Powell	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	10	29%	-0.09	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.9	1.8	27.9	17.5	25.5	3.3	37.7	140.5
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +12.7%

TOR +25.2%

MIN -5.9%

TOR +20.4%

MIN -2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	TOR	NBA	MIN	TOR	NBA
this game	15.5	15.2	14.8	115.8	134.8	107.7
season	15.3	15.2		109.3	110.0
opponent	14.9	14.7		106.9	110.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	14.0	18.1	14.8	15.4	15.5
TOR	17.3	15.3	14.5	14.0	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shabazz Muhammad	42	39	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.14	8	-22	30	13.9	16.9	-2.99	14.9	15.5	-0.61
Tyus Jones	2	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-12	10	15.0	15.6	-0.56	2.5	15.5	-13.03
Nemanja Bjelica	28	27	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.01	-3	-11	8	14.9	15.8	-0.98	13.7	15.9	-2.19
Cole Aldrich	33	30	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.13	0	-14	14	14.1	16.3	-2.23	15.2	15.3	-0.07
Kris Dunn	42	40	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.06	-3	-11	8	14.7	16.2	-1.45	13.8	16.3	-2.52
Ricky Rubio	55	54	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.03	-13	-1	-12	16.1	14.7	1.42	15.8	14.4	1.41
Gorgui Dieng	62	62	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	0.04	-14	0	-14	16.3	14.1	2.23	15.3	15.2	0.07
Karl-Anthony Towns	67	65	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.10	-11	-3	-8	15.8	14.9	0.98	15.9	13.7	2.19
Zach LaVine	75	73	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	0.01	-16	2	-18	16.4	12.3	4.11	15.5	14.5	0.98
Andrew Wiggins	69	68	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.17	-16	2	-18	15.7	15.3	0.38	16.0	13.2	2.82

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Lowry	71	73	0.86	-0.36	1.22	0.07	27	-13	40	15.5	14.4	1.06	16.9	11.2	5.68
DeMarre Carroll	63	64	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.12	19	-5	24	15.0	15.7	-0.69	16.8	12.9	3.88
Lucas Nogueira	38	40	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.18	9	5	4	15.3	15.2	0.02	14.6	16.2	-1.64
Patrick Patterson	57	61	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.03	13	1	12	15.6	14.6	1.05	15.0	16.5	-1.44
DeMar DeRozan	69	72	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.02	5	9	-4	16.1	12.7	3.41	15.2	16.7	-1.52
Terrence Ross	33	35	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.13	0	14	-14	15.1	15.4	-0.30	13.6	16.7	-3.04
Jonas Valanciunas	54	55	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.09	5	9	-4	15.2	15.3	-0.02	16.2	14.6	1.64
Norman Powell	14	13	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.12	4	10	-6	12.9	15.7	-2.82	16.5	15.4	1.06
Pascal Siakam	22	21	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.02	-2	16	-18	15.0	15.3	-0.39	16.2	15.4	0.83
Cory Joseph	39	41	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	0.09	-10	24	-34	14.3	16.0	-1.72	13.7	17.0	-3.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.36,0.37,0.37,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.38,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.32,0.28,0.29,0.36,0.29,0.32,0.27,0.31,0.36,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.6,0.63,0.7,0.7,0.64,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.44,0.4,0.46,0.56,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.79,0.8,0.96,0.99,0.96,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 92, IND 97	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.48,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.47,0.58,0.63,0.79,0.81,0.9,0.97,0.95,0.98,0.96,1	91.9%
HOU 99, MIL 106	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.32,0.4,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.28,0.32,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.43,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.36,0.46,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.7,0.64,0.55,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.56,0.52,0.62,0.57,0.67,0.76,0.73,0.79,0.96,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1	91.7%
MIL 97, POR 104	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.33,0.34,0.29,0.39,0.36,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.43,0.45,0.52,0.61,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.52,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.64,0.76,0.86,0.95,1,1,1,1	91.6%