NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	112		Excitement	7.2 [430]		MVP	CJ McCollum (POR): +17.3%
Chicago Bulls	110		Comeback	2.3 [359]		LVP	Denzel Valentine (CHI): -15.2%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
CJ McCollum	0.17	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.10	0.09	0.01	19	63%	0.24	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Evan Turner	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.04	0.12	0.00	6	83%	0.20	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Damian Lillard	0.10	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.1	0.12	0.01	0.03	24	57%	0.10	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02
Allen Crabbe	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	-0.01	15	53%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Ed Davis	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	3	62%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Maurice Harkless	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.04	11	44%	0.04	2	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
Mason Plumlee	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	0.00	9	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Al-Farouq Aminu	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	3	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.08
Meyers Leonard	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	3	33%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Mirotic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.10	0.07	0.02	8	75%	0.21	2	-0.06	8	87%	0.03
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04	0.04	0.07	-0.02	0.01	23	58%	0.13	4	-0.09	13	85%	0.02
Bobby Portis	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01	-0.01	0.11	-0.07	0.06	16	65%	0.07	2	-0.08	8	100%	0.04
Robin Lopez	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	6	44%	0.01	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Isaiah Canaan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	11	42%	0.01	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Taj Gibson	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.04	0.01	6	62%	0.04	2	-0.08	1	0%	-0.02
Jerian Grant	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	7	31%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Denzel Valentine	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.08	-0.07	0.00	6	17%	-0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.5	2.3	30.0	14.8	30.2	1.8	41.0	142.7
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +72.6%

CHI -36.8%

CHI -11.4%

POR +20.3%

POR +5.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	CHI	NBA	POR	CHI	NBA
this game	14.3	14.7	14.8	112.0	111.1	107.7
season	14.9	15.1		108.6	105.9
opponent	14.8	14.5		105.9	109.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	14.6	12.7	16.7	13.5	14.3
CHI	13.7	14.0	16.0	15.3	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Allen Crabbe	71	69	0.84	-0.34	1.17	0.46	13	-11	24	13.7	15.7	-2.00	14.2	15.9	-1.71
Evan Turner	62	60	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.43	8	-6	14	13.7	15.2	-1.56	14.2	15.3	-1.08
Ed Davis	62	58	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.45	2	0	2	14.5	13.8	0.73	15.7	13.2	2.49
Maurice Harkless	67	64	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.41	0	2	-2	13.9	15.0	-1.13	15.1	13.8	1.31
Damian Lillard	69	70	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.25	1	1	0	14.5	13.8	0.63	14.9	14.1	0.81
Al-Farouq Aminu	34	37	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.00	4	-2	6	14.3	14.3	-0.01	14.3	14.9	-0.65
Meyers Leonard	28	30	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.02	1	1	0	13.8	14.4	-0.62	12.2	15.8	-3.55
CJ McCollum	63	63	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.17	-9	11	-20	14.5	13.8	0.73	14.6	14.8	-0.20
Mason Plumlee	44	44	-0.29	0.79	-1.08	0.01	-10	12	-22	15.8	13.1	2.76	15.8	13.8	2.01

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerian Grant	43	46	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.08	5	-7	12	15.8	13.8	1.97	15.3	13.4	1.92
Bobby Portis	16	16	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.06	-5	3	-8	13.0	15.0	-2.00	12.7	14.6	-1.81
Dwyane Wade	74	76	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.44	9	-11	20	14.5	15.2	-0.65	14.2	14.5	-0.25
Robin Lopez	66	64	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.37	6	-8	14	15.0	13.9	1.11	15.3	12.4	2.98
Jimmy Butler	75	77	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.27	2	-4	6	14.8	14.3	0.45	14.1	14.7	-0.55
Taj Gibson	53	56	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.10	-5	3	-8	15.5	13.8	1.67	14.3	14.3	-0.00
Denzel Valentine	48	49	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.10	-10	8	-18	14.3	15.0	-0.75	13.1	15.4	-2.33
Nikola Mirotic	58	56	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.45	-3	1	-4	14.2	15.4	-1.26	13.9	14.7	-0.86
Isaiah Canaan	62	60	-0.72	0.22	-0.95	-0.46	-9	7	-16	14.1	15.6	-1.47	14.3	14.2	0.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.39,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.4,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.49,0.52,0.44,0.36,0.36,0.25,0.22,0.27,0.26,0.34,0.46,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.55,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.53,0.47,0.25,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 102, PHI 97	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.46,0.47,0.39,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.48,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.68,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.38,0.37,0.26,0.15,0.14,0.1,0.22,0.06,0.04,0	92.7%
HOU 107, MEM 91	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.39,0.33,0.28,0.22,0.3,0.41,0.4,0.42,0.52,0.64,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.44,0.38,0.26,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.36,0.16,0.14,0.03,0,0,0,0	92.5%
SAS 107, PHX 100	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.38,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.29,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.48,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.62,0.53,0.52,0.56,0.46,0.38,0.43,0.34,0.24,0.1,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	91.4%