NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	125		Excitement	2.5 [1234]		MVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): +12.9%
Denver Nuggets	101		Comeback	1.1 [1106]		LVP	Emmanuel Mudiay (DEN): -10.0%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Curry	0.13	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.23	-0.00	0.10	17	82%	0.18	4	-0.05	6	100%	0.02
Draymond Green	0.07	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.09	0.00	0.02	7	81%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Durant	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.00	-0.02	16	53%	0.05	1	0.00	2	100%	0.01
JaVale McGee	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	-0.00	6	71%	0.05	1	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Zaza Pachulia	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	100%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Klay Thompson	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	0.00	0.05	14	63%	0.05	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Shaun Livingston	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	4	75%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
David West	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	3	62%	0.02	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Anderson Varejao	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	1	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Kevon Looney	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ian Clark	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	37%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick McCaw	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	6	57%	-0.01	1	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Andre Iguodala	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Juan Hernangomez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.02	10	50%	0.03	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Malik Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.06	0.00	0.06	10	60%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.10	0.00	0.10	4	112%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarnell Stokes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	9	44%	-0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Harris	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.03	-0.00	0.02	7	69%	0.04	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.02
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.06	0.00	-0.05	15	44%	0.01	3	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	9	44%	0.02	2	-0.02	7	86%	0.01
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	5	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.10	-0.01	-0.07	4	0%	-0.04	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jusuf Nurkic	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	0.03	5	75%	0.02	4	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Emmanuel Mudiay	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.12	-0.00	-0.02	15	33%	-0.06	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	2.5	31.5	15.5	24.3	2.4	26.7	129.9
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +40.0%

GSW +6.7%

DEN -5.9%

GSW +6.9%

GSW +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	DEN	NBA	GSW	DEN	NBA
this game	14.1	14.9	14.8	125.0	102.0	107.7
season	13.5	14.4		114.9	111.6
opponent	14.5	15.1		111.2	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	10.8	15.5	15.2	15.5	14.1
DEN	15.5	13.9	14.8	15.2	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stephen Curry	64	64	0.46	0.04	0.43	-0.33	27	-3	30	13.2	15.7	-2.59	14.7	15.1	-0.35
Klay Thompson	65	64	0.44	0.06	0.38	-0.26	24	0	24	13.7	14.8	-1.05	16.2	12.5	3.67
Kevin Durant	60	62	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.42	29	-5	34	13.3	15.3	-1.97	16.1	12.7	3.44
Draymond Green	60	60	0.39	0.11	0.29	-0.28	23	1	22	13.9	14.4	-0.56	14.9	14.7	0.23
JaVale McGee	34	32	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.05	6	18	-12	13.1	14.6	-1.43	12.6	15.9	-3.30
Andre Iguodala	48	48	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.09	3	21	-18	13.4	14.7	-1.29	14.1	15.6	-1.55
Zaza Pachulia	27	28	0.17	0.33	-0.17	-0.25	14	10	4	15.5	13.6	1.96	16.9	14.0	2.89
Patrick McCaw	32	31	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.01	4	20	-16	13.9	14.2	-0.32	13.3	15.6	-2.33
David West	28	27	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.05	2	22	-20	14.0	14.1	-0.08	16.1	14.4	1.72
Anderson Varejao	11	11	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	24	-24	15.3	13.9	1.33	11.9	15.2	-3.32
Kevon Looney	12	11	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	26	-28	16.8	13.7	3.12	11.9	15.2	-3.32
Ian Clark	24	22	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	28	-32	16.7	13.3	3.39	12.7	15.5	-2.74
Shaun Livingston	35	35	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.14	-6	30	-36	16.1	13.0	3.11	15.4	14.6	0.84

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jarnell Stokes	11	12	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-26	28	11.9	15.2	-3.32	16.8	13.7	3.12
Mike Miller	19	19	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-22	20	13.6	15.1	-1.52	15.1	13.9	1.19
Malik Beasley	29	30	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.15	5	-29	34	14.0	15.2	-1.17	15.3	13.6	1.78
Jameer Nelson	34	35	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.12	-1	-23	22	14.7	14.9	-0.23	13.0	14.7	-1.68
Juan Hernangomez	62	63	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.13	-2	-22	20	13.8	16.6	-2.73	14.8	12.9	1.86
Jamal Murray	60	62	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.10	-3	-21	18	14.1	16.1	-2.01	14.3	13.8	0.48
Kenneth Faried	64	64	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.09	-10	-14	4	14.8	15.0	-0.26	13.4	15.3	-1.86
Nikola Jokic	38	38	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.33	-21	-3	-18	16.2	14.0	2.19	13.5	14.4	-0.91
Emmanuel Mudiay	50	50	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	0.29	-21	-3	-18	15.3	14.4	0.89	14.2	13.9	0.30
Gary Harris	37	36	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.37	-24	0	-24	16.3	14.0	2.34	14.1	14.1	0.03
Danilo Gallinari	54	55	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	0.21	-20	-4	-16	15.4	14.2	1.21	14.0	14.2	-0.24
Jusuf Nurkic	37	36	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.23	-23	-1	-22	16.1	14.1	1.91	12.9	14.8	-1.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.44,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.28,0.27,0.24,0.17,0.16,0.11,0.13,0.16,0.15,0.14,0.08,0.13,0.19,0.18,0.12,0.14,0.09,0.05,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 109, NOK 94	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.28,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.1,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0	97.5%
ORL 112, CHI 84	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.35,0.37,0.3,0.25,0.2,0.19,0.14,0.19,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.09,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.9%
POR 98, CLE 72	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.23,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.16,0.13,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.17,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.8%