NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	86		Excitement	7.6 [349]		MVP	Jeff Green (ORL): +18.5%
Orlando Magic	88		Comeback	9.0 [255]		LVP	Marcin Gortat (WAS): -20.0%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Otto Porter	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.02	-0.01	8	62%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Oubre	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	5	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Nicholson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.05,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	10	43%	0.02	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Marcus Thornton	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	8	56%	0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bradley Beal	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0,-0.03	-0.01	0.01	0.02	17	42%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Trey Burke	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tomas Satoransky	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.01	7	53%	0.03	1	-0.06	1	0%	-0.02
Jason Smith	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Markieff Morris	-0.15	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15	-0.03	-0.13	-0.01	16	44%	-0.12	2	-0.04	9	78%	-0.02
Marcin Gortat	-0.20	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.2	-0.09	-0.11	-0.00	10	33%	-0.10	2	-0.10	4	50%	-0.07

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,-0.02,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19	0.19	0.07	0.12	0.00	12	58%	0.22	1	-0.03	7	86%	0.02
Mario Hezonja	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.00	0.06	-0.00	9	45%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	7	56%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Evan Fournier	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.05	0.02	8	54%	0.09	2	-0.05	8	87%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.06,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.04	0.01	6	43%	0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.06
Bismack Biyombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	6	56%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.06
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	13	42%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	8	44%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
CJ Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Elfrid Payton	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	8	33%	-0.03	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.6	0.8	29.3	15.4	26.4	2.7	40.1	140.3
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +37.4%

ORL +0.5%

WAS -1.8%

ORL +11.3%

ORL +2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	ORL	NBA	WAS	ORL	NBA
this game	16.9	16.2	14.8	97.7	102.3	107.7
season	14.4	14.6		109.9	103.0
opponent	14.9	14.9		109.8	108.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	15.0	15.1	19.6	18.4	16.9
ORL	15.7	17.0	16.4	15.9	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew Nicholson	16	18	0.13	-0.63	0.76	0.01	4	-6	10	18.4	16.5	1.90	15.1	16.5	-1.39
Tomas Satoransky	57	55	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.37	13	-15	28	16.7	17.3	-0.57	17.2	14.5	2.75
Bradley Beal	61	58	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.49	16	-18	34	16.7	17.4	-0.70	17.1	14.3	2.85
Marcin Gortat	67	64	-0.06	-0.45	0.39	-0.44	13	-15	28	16.7	17.5	-0.77	17.1	13.6	3.46
Kelly Oubre	31	31	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.13	-8	6	-14	17.9	16.3	1.57	14.4	17.2	-2.85
Marcus Thornton	32	33	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.03	-13	11	-24	17.1	16.8	0.28	14.6	17.2	-2.65
Otto Porter	53	50	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.45	1	-3	4	16.1	18.1	-1.94	17.3	14.6	2.70
Jason Smith	21	22	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.04	-15	13	-28	17.5	16.7	0.77	13.6	17.1	-3.46
Trey Burke	30	31	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.09	-15	13	-28	17.8	16.4	1.44	14.5	17.2	-2.75
Markieff Morris	72	68	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.46	-6	4	-10	16.5	18.4	-1.90	16.5	15.1	1.39

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Green	50	50	0.84	-0.34	1.17	0.40	15	-13	28	14.7	18.4	-3.70	17.7	15.9	1.79
Mario Hezonja	48	45	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.22	15	-13	28	15.0	17.8	-2.78	17.9	15.8	2.14
Evan Fournier	51	54	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.43	7	-5	12	17.5	14.3	3.29	16.7	17.1	-0.38
D.J. Augustin	40	37	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.10	15	-13	28	14.7	17.5	-2.73	17.1	16.8	0.29
Bismack Biyombo	46	44	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.26	9	-7	16	15.0	17.5	-2.51	17.7	16.1	1.55
CJ Watson	27	26	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.03	2	0	2	14.0	17.2	-3.22	17.3	16.7	0.60
Nikola Vucevic	43	48	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.15	-5	7	-12	17.1	15.3	1.72	16.6	17.2	-0.67
Elfrid Payton	47	52	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.35	-13	15	-28	17.2	15.0	2.26	16.4	17.5	-1.09
Serge Ibaka	36	38	-0.33	0.83	-1.16	0.05	-13	15	-28	18.4	14.7	3.70	15.9	17.7	-1.79
Aaron Gordon	42	46	-0.37	0.87	-1.24	0.28	-22	24	-46	18.0	14.5	3.59	15.7	18.1	-2.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.36,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.39,0.29,0.23,0.25,0.27,0.22,0.29,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.21,0.12,0.11,0.13,0.15,0.13,0.25,0.43,0.63,0.74,0.71,0.74,0.47,0.72,0.85,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 90, BOS 94	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.37,0.29,0.29,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.22,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.24,0.27,0.23,0.26,0.27,0.1,0.17,0.28,0.3,0.34,0.43,0.47,0.63,0.69,0.59,0.67,0.75,0.93,0.89,0.98,1	90.3%
CLE 74, PHX 78	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.42,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.29,0.27,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.28,0.21,0.22,0.27,0.22,0.3,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.6,0.61,0.45,0.72,0.91,0.99,1	90.0%
NOH 88, OKC 92	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.24,0.33,0.36,0.39,0.27,0.35,0.31,0.33,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.22,0.19,0.2,0.14,0.21,0.34,0.38,0.47,0.52,0.63,0.53,0.6,0.83,0.74,0.64,0.94,0.95,1	89.7%