NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	94		Excitement	6.5 [544]		MVP	Evan Fournier (ORL): +28.8%
Orlando Magic	102		Comeback	2.0 [556]		LVP	Elfrid Payton (ORL): -12.6%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMarcus Cousins	0.20	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2	0.19	0.04	0.03	20	67%	0.26	2	-0.06	9	89%	0.03
Ben McLemore	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	-0.01	7	79%	0.07	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	9	55%	0.09	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.05
Omri Casspi	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	13	46%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Barnes	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	6	23%	-0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Willie Cauley-Stein	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	5	40%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Garrett Temple	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gay	-0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09	-0.01	-0.07	0.00	13	52%	-0.01	3	-0.08	5	40%	-0.03

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Evan Fournier	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.17,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.18	0.10	-0.01	15	78%	0.36	3	-0.07	7	86%	0.03
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.10	0.03	-0.01	9	75%	0.15	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.04	0.04	-0.03	10	57%	0.13	1	-0.01	3	67%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	13	57%	0.06	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Bismack Biyombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
CJ Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	8	50%	0.02	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Mario Hezonja	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.11	0.01	0.00	11	36%	-0.00	3	-0.10	6	33%	-0.07
Elfrid Payton	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.12	-0.04	-0.03	13	22%	-0.07	1	-0.05	1	0%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.4	24.3	14.8	28.1	2.3	34.3	128.7
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +21.0%

ORL +11.5%

ORL +16.7%

SAC -4.1%

ORL +4.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	ORL	NBA	SAC	ORL	NBA
this game	16.0	15.7	14.8	104.4	110.9	107.7
season	15.4	14.6		106.0	103.0
opponent	14.9	14.6		109.8	110.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	15.9	14.3	17.8	16.3	16.0
ORL	16.1	13.9	13.7	19.7	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Arron Afflalo	35	37	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.07	0	-8	8	16.6	15.6	0.98	14.3	16.5	-2.22
Kosta Koufos	39	41	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.12	0	-8	8	17.2	15.1	2.13	14.1	16.9	-2.85
Garrett Temple	26	25	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.03	-4	-4	0	15.3	16.3	-1.03	15.7	15.6	0.04
Matt Barnes	19	19	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	0.08	-10	2	-12	12.5	16.9	-4.40	16.9	15.3	1.57
Omri Casspi	45	47	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.17	-2	-6	4	15.0	17.0	-2.09	15.7	15.6	0.19
Rudy Gay	58	59	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.25	-1	-7	6	16.6	14.9	1.75	16.0	15.0	1.06
Willie Cauley-Stein	46	45	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.15	-5	-3	-2	15.5	16.5	-1.02	16.9	14.5	2.42
DeMarcus Cousins	66	68	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.23	-3	-5	2	17.0	13.3	3.64	15.5	16.2	-0.70
Ty Lawson	64	67	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.24	-4	-4	0	16.3	15.3	1.03	15.6	15.7	-0.04
Ben McLemore	52	52	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.15	-11	3	-14	15.4	16.8	-1.46	16.0	15.1	0.89

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Elfrid Payton	64	62	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.23	9	-1	10	15.5	16.0	-0.50	17.0	13.7	3.37
Evan Fournier	68	66	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.22	6	2	4	15.4	16.2	-0.81	16.6	14.4	2.22
Serge Ibaka	63	60	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.17	7	1	6	14.7	17.7	-3.03	16.9	14.1	2.80
Aaron Gordon	58	57	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.22	2	6	-4	15.5	15.9	-0.46	16.4	15.3	1.05
Nikola Vucevic	56	54	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.26	0	8	-8	15.7	15.6	0.11	16.3	15.6	0.65
Bismack Biyombo	40	40	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.04	7	1	6	16.4	15.1	1.28	15.6	16.3	-0.77
Mario Hezonja	22	24	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.01	8	0	8	16.8	15.3	1.53	14.0	16.7	-2.67
Jeff Green	37	35	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.11	0	8	-8	16.0	15.4	0.58	15.2	16.5	-1.31
CJ Watson	24	24	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.04	2	6	-4	16.2	15.4	0.81	14.4	16.6	-2.22
D.J. Augustin	28	28	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.04	-1	9	-10	16.0	15.5	0.50	13.7	17.0	-3.37

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.38,0.49,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.53,0.46,0.61,0.56,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.7,0.76,0.68,0.83,0.84,0.83,0.86,0.79,0.74,0.74,0.85,0.83,0.77,0.78,0.88,0.72,0.81,0.93,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 108, OKC 112	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.41,0.33,0.35,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.63,0.58,0.57,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.72,0.84,0.83,0.84,0.85,0.87,0.92,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.89,0.96,0.93,0.99,0.98,0.99,1	92.9%
POR 106, GSW 111	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.43,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.78,0.84,0.88,0.83,0.79,0.78,0.87,0.9,0.83,0.85,0.79,0.71,0.78,0.9,0.85,0.94,0.98,1	92.8%
LAL 108, CLE 119	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.47,0.51,0.6,0.67,0.6,0.7,0.58,0.66,0.69,0.66,0.67,0.54,0.65,0.69,0.75,0.73,0.73,0.68,0.75,0.75,0.83,0.82,0.75,0.74,0.78,0.88,0.83,0.77,0.87,0.88,0.91,0.86,0.85,0.99,1,1	92.8%