NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	106		Excitement	7.9 [279]		MVP	Patty Mills (SAS): +36.6%
Miami Heat	99		Comeback	1.4 [877]		LVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): -23.9%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Patty Mills	0.37	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.24,0.24,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37	0.14	0.23	-0.00	10	82%	0.39	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Kawhi Leonard	0.28	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.1,0.12,0.22,0.28	0.05	0.24	0.01	16	61%	0.39	4	-0.11	12	83%	0.05
Davis Bertans	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.01	0.01	3	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Anderson	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.03	-0.01	3	83%	0.09	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	-0.02	0.00	18	53%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Dewayne Dedmon	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.01	5	56%	0.01	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Nicolas Laprovittola	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Lee	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.03	-0.00	7	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jonathon Simmons	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	8	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Tony Parker	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	4	37%	-0.01	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.16	-0.09	-0.01	8	25%	-0.06	5	-0.18	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.23	0.23	0.13	0.10	0.00	15	67%	0.27	1	-0.04	10	70%	-0.00
Goran Dragic	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.06,0.11,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.22	0.22	0.11	0.13	0.02	17	62%	0.26	2	-0.04	6	67%	-0.04
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.05	0.00	11	48%	0.09	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00
Luke Babbitt	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Willie Reed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney McGruder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	0.01	-0.10	0.00	15	51%	0.03	2	-0.12	5	80%	-0.01
Dion Waiters	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.12	-0.07	-0.02	9	45%	0.01	6	-0.18	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.4	32.5	15.4	26.4	1.8	47.0	150.8
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +15.1%

SAS +5.8%

SAS +25.9%

SAS +0.3%

SAS +3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MIA	NBA	SAS	MIA	NBA
this game	15.6	14.5	14.8	111.6	103.1	107.7
season	15.4	15.4		110.1	106.7
opponent	14.5	14.8		105.9	103.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.2	15.2	15.6	15.4	15.6
MIA	13.8	14.8	14.4	15.2	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Patty Mills	50	51	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.40	8	-1	9	15.4	15.9	-0.51	14.1	15.0	-0.86
Kawhi Leonard	60	59	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.20	12	-5	17	15.6	15.7	-0.06	15.3	13.3	1.98
Manu Ginobili	55	55	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.40	1	6	-5	15.5	15.7	-0.18	13.9	15.4	-1.57
Dewayne Dedmon	31	30	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.18	6	1	5	15.8	15.5	0.23	15.0	14.3	0.62
Jonathon Simmons	49	51	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.36	-1	8	-9	15.7	15.6	0.11	13.3	16.0	-2.66
Davis Bertans	34	35	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.01	7	0	7	15.5	15.7	-0.23	13.9	14.9	-1.08
Pau Gasol	63	65	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.14	-1	8	-9	15.7	15.5	0.18	14.5	14.6	-0.11
Kyle Anderson	39	40	0.01	0.49	-0.49	-0.20	7	0	7	15.3	15.8	-0.53	15.5	13.9	1.60
David Lee	49	49	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.08	-3	10	-13	15.9	15.4	0.49	15.2	13.9	1.31
Tony Parker	43	43	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.06	1	6	-5	15.9	15.4	0.44	15.3	14.0	1.29
Nicolas Laprovittola	2	2	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.04	-2	9	-11	16.5	15.6	0.90	9.5	14.6	-5.15

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luke Babbitt	50	51	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.02	0	-7	7	13.8	15.3	-1.46	16.0	15.2	0.86
Hassan Whiteside	68	68	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.26	7	-14	21	14.4	15.0	-0.60	16.3	14.0	2.26
Goran Dragic	68	68	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.36	6	-13	19	14.2	15.4	-1.15	15.9	15.0	0.82
James Johnson	30	28	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.01	-7	0	-7	15.4	14.1	1.30	14.2	16.2	-1.94
Rodney McGruder	32	30	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.08	-12	5	-17	15.8	13.9	1.86	15.0	15.9	-0.96
Dion Waiters	69	68	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.35	1	-8	9	13.9	16.3	-2.44	15.2	16.6	-1.31
Justise Winslow	76	77	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.32	-2	-5	3	14.4	15.0	-0.58	16.2	13.1	3.10
Willie Reed	27	26	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.06	-12	5	-17	15.4	14.2	1.15	14.3	16.1	-1.86
Tyler Johnson	60	59	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.17	-16	9	-25	15.2	13.5	1.67	15.5	15.8	-0.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.41,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.37,0.38,0.3,0.25,0.25,0.2,0.18,0.16,0.17,0.16,0.23,0.3,0.27,0.24,0.2,0.22,0.17,0.24,0.35,0.38,0.41,0.24,0.3,0.28,0.3,0.38,0.43,0.38,0.27,0.41,0.29,0.46,0.38,0.21,0.22,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 98, PHI 93	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.36,0.41,0.39,0.38,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.31,0.33,0.32,0.23,0.2,0.16,0.21,0.3,0.3,0.35,0.25,0.25,0.27,0.19,0.26,0.35,0.34,0.24,0.22,0.32,0.38,0.48,0.48,0.33,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.33,0.25,0.17,0.23,0.03,0	93.4%
POR 97, ATL 90	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.33,0.33,0.24,0.3,0.28,0.31,0.34,0.27,0.2,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.23,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.18,0.13,0.17,0.21,0.27,0.29,0.28,0.27,0.33,0.39,0.34,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.28,0.47,0.41,0.46,0.47,0.36,0.22,0.04,0	92.5%
PHI 87, NYK 80	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.38,0.35,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.23,0.17,0.16,0.2,0.26,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.28,0.41,0.36,0.24,0.29,0.38,0.43,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.19,0.26,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.26,0.24,0.39,0.38,0.36,0.16,0.15,0	92.0%