NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	108		Excitement	5.0 [820]		MVP	James Johnson (MIA): +8.1%
Orlando Magic	96		Comeback	1.8 [438]		LVP	Elfrid Payton (ORL): -9.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Johnson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.01	-0.01	8	65%	0.10	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Luke Babbitt	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.01	0.01	-0.05	10	40%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justise Winslow	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.02	-0.03	15	48%	0.05	2	-0.00	1	100%	0.00
Willie Reed	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.08	0.00	0.05	6	83%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Johnson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.07	-0.00	0.04	11	65%	0.05	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	0.02	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	16	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	4	0%	-0.02
Rodney McGruder	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	3	55%	0.04	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.01
Goran Dragic	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0.01	15	50%	0.03	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.00
Dion Waiters	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.02	-0.03	13	32%	-0.07	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.00	-0.02	3	78%	0.07	1	-0.00	3	100%	0.02
Nikola Vucevic	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	14	53%	0.03	1	-0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	17	41%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Evan Fournier	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.03	-0.02	19	44%	-0.03	1	-0.00	7	57%	0.00
Mario Hezonja	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	5	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	7	39%	-0.03	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.03	0.05	11	55%	-0.01	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Elfrid Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	12	50%	-0.01	4	-0.08	8	100%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.4	3.3	29.4	15.5	31.2	2.6	29.4	139.7
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +38.0%

ORL -6.8%

MIA +23.1%

ORL -0.2%

ORL -4.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ORL	NBA	MIA	ORL	NBA
this game	15.4	14.6	14.8	111.3	101.1	107.7
season	15.4	14.6		106.7	103.0
opponent	14.9	14.5		109.8	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.4	14.9	14.4	16.0	15.4
ORL	17.1	12.8	16.9	12.1	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rodney McGruder	49	48	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.01	15	-3	18	14.5	16.4	-1.89	14.4	14.7	-0.35
Luke Babbitt	36	36	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.07	12	0	12	15.1	15.6	-0.45	16.6	13.3	3.33
Dion Waiters	67	66	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.21	5	7	-2	15.6	15.0	0.66	14.3	15.1	-0.77
Hassan Whiteside	60	61	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.17	5	7	-2	15.9	14.7	1.21	14.8	14.2	0.52
Justise Winslow	71	69	0.31	0.19	0.11	-0.13	15	-3	18	15.3	15.7	-0.42	14.9	13.7	1.21
Goran Dragic	56	56	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.27	-2	14	-16	15.8	14.9	0.94	14.4	14.9	-0.51
Tyler Johnson	58	55	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.10	3	9	-6	15.7	15.0	0.71	14.0	15.3	-1.35
Willie Reed	37	34	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.02	7	5	2	14.7	15.9	-1.21	14.2	14.8	-0.52
James Johnson	51	50	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.07	0	12	-12	15.6	15.2	0.47	14.0	15.2	-1.28

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mario Hezonja	27	28	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.11	-7	-5	-2	15.9	14.0	1.84	14.4	15.9	-1.50
Jeff Green	51	50	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.04	-8	-4	-4	14.5	14.7	-0.25	15.4	15.5	-0.09
Nikola Vucevic	70	71	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.32	0	-12	12	14.4	15.2	-0.80	16.1	13.7	2.42
Evan Fournier	77	78	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.26	-3	-9	6	14.4	15.5	-1.15	15.9	13.5	2.42
D.J. Augustin	33	34	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.02	-11	-1	-10	15.5	14.1	1.36	14.0	16.2	-2.15
Aaron Gordon	71	72	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.04	-11	-1	-10	14.6	14.5	0.09	15.5	15.2	0.30
Serge Ibaka	72	78	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	0.10	-16	4	-20	14.6	14.5	0.06	14.7	18.2	-3.47
Elfrid Payton	74	74	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.26	-4	-8	4	14.2	16.0	-1.84	16.0	13.5	2.49

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.23,0.28,0.25,0.17,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 122, LAC 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.39,0.39,0.49,0.49,0.59,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.32,0.29,0.21,0.14,0.19,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.0%
SAS 89, LAC 76	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.63,0.66,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.45,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.36,0.24,0.23,0.32,0.22,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.9%
CHI 89, ATL 74	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.39,0.48,0.33,0.26,0.29,0.31,0.17,0.2,0.13,0.15,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.8%