NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	99		Excitement	7.1 [426]		MVP	Joe Johnson (MIA): +22.8%
Detroit Pistons	93		Comeback	2.1 [323]		LVP	Marcus Morris (DET): -11.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Johnson	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.19,0.23	0.12	0.11	0.00	15	76%	0.35	4	-0.12	3	67%	-0.01
Amar'e Stoudemire	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.00	-0.02	3	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.03	0.01	15	53%	0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.02	-0.02	16	40%	0.03	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.02
Gerald Green	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Luol Deng	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0	0.06	-0.02	0.04	11	71%	0.08	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Josh Richardson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	3	37%	0.00	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Udonis Haslem	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	1	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Hassan Whiteside	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	10	50%	0.04	3	-0.09	8	75%	0.01

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.03	0.00	3	87%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Reggie Bullock	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.01	17	47%	0.05	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02
Spencer Dinwiddie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	5	43%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	7	62%	0.04	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Aron Baynes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	4	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Tobias Harris	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.01	-0.04	0.02	16	43%	-0.06	0	0.00	5	100%	0.03
Andre Drummond	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	11	35%	-0.01	2	-0.06	4	25%	-0.05
Stanley Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	5	42%	-0.02	2	-0.09	2	50%	-0.02
Marcus Morris	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.05	-0.06	0.01	13	48%	0.02	4	-0.14	7	71%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.3	2.4	32.3	15.6	27.3	1.8	31.2	131.9
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +48.2%

MIA +1.9%

DET -15.0%

MIA +15.4%

DET -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DET	NBA	MIA	DET	NBA
this game	16.3	14.5	14.9	105.3	100.0	105.1
season	15.5	15.0		104.5	104.9
opponent	15.1	15.1		105.0	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.1	13.4	17.7	18.7	16.3
DET	16.6	13.8	13.6	14.0	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luol Deng	83	81	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.25	11	-5	16	16.2	17.4	-1.17	14.1	16.9	-2.82
Josh Richardson	74	72	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.29	8	-2	10	15.7	18.5	-2.76	14.6	14.1	0.41
Goran Dragic	52	52	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.31	6	0	6	16.5	16.1	0.42	13.9	15.1	-1.22
Joe Johnson	66	64	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.27	4	2	2	16.9	15.1	1.79	14.5	14.3	0.22
Udonis Haslem	15	16	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.10	8	-2	10	16.5	16.3	0.16	14.1	14.5	-0.41
Hassan Whiteside	66	64	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.22	-2	8	-10	16.9	15.0	1.84	14.7	14.0	0.62
Gerald Green	37	39	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.04	-1	7	-8	15.4	17.0	-1.61	14.6	14.4	0.26
Amar'e Stoudemire	13	13	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.01	0	6	-6	13.4	16.8	-3.42	13.9	14.5	-0.63
Dwyane Wade	64	64	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.12	-4	10	-14	17.0	14.8	2.25	15.1	13.1	2.02

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Tolliver	23	24	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.03	-1	-5	4	15.9	14.0	1.87	15.5	16.6	-1.11
Steve Blake	61	62	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.19	2	-8	10	14.7	14.1	0.56	17.1	14.7	2.40
Aron Baynes	31	32	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.12	-1	-5	4	13.9	14.7	-0.84	14.7	17.2	-2.44
Marcus Morris	64	68	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.32	4	-10	14	14.4	14.6	-0.13	16.8	15.0	1.84
Reggie Bullock	23	22	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.16	-2	-4	2	17.1	13.6	3.54	16.2	16.4	-0.19
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	70	72	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.16	-4	-2	-2	13.6	17.1	-3.54	16.4	16.2	0.19
Stanley Johnson	29	26	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.00	-10	4	-14	14.6	14.4	0.13	15.0	16.8	-1.84
Andre Drummond	62	62	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.21	-5	-1	-4	14.7	13.9	0.84	17.2	14.7	2.44
Spencer Dinwiddie	32	32	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.14	-8	2	-10	14.1	14.7	-0.56	14.7	17.1	-2.40
Tobias Harris	70	70	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.29	-5	-1	-4	14.0	15.9	-1.87	16.6	15.5	1.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.4,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.42,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.51,0.42,0.46,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.56,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.52,0.47,0.42,0.27,0.26,0.4,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.02,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 109, MEM 107	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.5,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.48,0.34,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.29,0.24,0.32,0.21,0.29,0.17,0.11,0.1,0.05,0.04,0	93.3%
MIL 103, MIN 86	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.35,0.36,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.36,0.41,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.43,0.45,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.36,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.28,0.36,0.29,0.17,0.03,0,0,0,0	93.2%
CHH 96, MIA 87	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.44,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.66,0.59,0.6,0.64,0.5,0.52,0.34,0.48,0.42,0.26,0.34,0.13,0.03,0.07,0,0,0	93.2%