NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	96		Excitement	3.8 [1086]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +14.3%
Miami Heat	118		Comeback	1.3 [947]		LVP	Ersan Ilyasova (ORL): -10.7%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Evan Fournier	0.09	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.00	0.00	16	64%	0.14	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
CJ Watson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	5	73%	0.04	1	-0.00	1	100%	-0.00
Andrew Nicholson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.01	-0.02	6	50%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Mario Hezonja	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	-0.01	-0.02	8	62%	0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dewayne Dedmon	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	3	67%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shabazz Napier	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	3	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Devyn Marble	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	6	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	6	67%	-0.00
Jason Smith	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	0.02	7	33%	-0.04	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	0.03	17	53%	0.01	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Elfrid Payton	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	8	44%	-0.01	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Ersan Ilyasova	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.00	-0.00	4	0%	-0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.13	0.02	0.00	9	81%	0.17	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.10	0.02	0.00	7	82%	0.17	2	-0.04	8	100%	0.04
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.11	0.00	0.07	12	70%	0.07	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.00
Luol Deng	0,0,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.01	11	67%	0.09	4	-0.05	8	62%	-0.02
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	7	56%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.08	0.00	0.07	12	62%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh McRoberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.01	-0.04	6	37%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Udonis Haslem	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Briante Weber	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	3	62%	0.04	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	0.03	9	39%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.5	1.6	29.5	14.7	23.1	1.8	29.0	122.3
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +21.2%

MIA +16.7%

ORL -0.7%

MIA +13.2%

ORL -0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIA	NBA	ORL	MIA	NBA
this game	14.3	14.8	14.9	97.0	119.2	105.1
season	14.6	15.5		103.6	104.5
opponent	15.1	14.9		103.1	105.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.2	13.0	16.1	13.1	14.3
MIA	14.2	14.1	15.2	15.7	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dewayne Dedmon	16	17	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-21	20	12.3	14.7	-2.36	15.8	14.6	1.24
Shabazz Napier	25	25	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.05	-2	-20	18	13.1	14.7	-1.62	15.7	14.5	1.23
Jason Smith	26	26	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.02	-2	-20	18	14.3	14.3	-0.03	14.4	14.9	-0.51
Andrew Nicholson	46	46	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.14	-8	-14	6	14.6	14.1	0.51	15.4	14.3	1.11
CJ Watson	46	47	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.17	-11	-11	0	13.7	14.8	-1.03	15.0	14.6	0.34
Devyn Marble	57	58	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.03	-8	-14	6	13.2	15.8	-2.68	14.3	15.5	-1.18
Ersan Ilyasova	33	33	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.07	-12	-10	-2	16.2	13.3	2.88	14.8	14.8	0.08
Elfrid Payton	53	52	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.02	-11	-11	0	14.8	13.7	1.03	14.6	15.0	-0.34
Evan Fournier	65	65	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.09	-16	-6	-10	14.4	14.0	0.45	14.9	14.6	0.23
Nikola Vucevic	62	61	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.08	-17	-5	-12	14.5	13.9	0.68	14.7	14.9	-0.24
Mario Hezonja	66	65	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	0.12	-22	0	-22	14.7	13.5	1.17	14.3	15.7	-1.38

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luol Deng	71	74	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.10	19	3	16	14.4	15.8	-1.38	14.4	14.1	0.23
Goran Dragic	71	73	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.04	16	6	10	15.0	14.2	0.76	14.6	13.3	1.34
Hassan Whiteside	58	59	0.41	0.09	0.33	-0.11	18	4	14	14.4	15.3	-0.84	14.5	13.9	0.62
Joe Johnson	56	57	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.12	18	4	14	14.7	14.9	-0.11	14.4	14.2	0.22
Josh Richardson	72	71	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.14	15	7	8	14.4	16.0	-1.60	13.6	15.9	-2.28
Dwyane Wade	50	50	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.03	8	14	-6	14.8	14.8	0.04	14.5	14.1	0.38
Gerald Green	34	34	0.10	0.40	-0.31	-0.05	5	17	-12	15.3	14.6	0.71	13.9	14.5	-0.67
Josh McRoberts	41	40	0.09	0.41	-0.33	-0.03	4	18	-14	15.3	14.4	0.84	13.9	14.5	-0.62
Justise Winslow	30	27	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.12	-3	25	-28	15.8	14.4	1.39	14.7	14.1	0.56
Udonis Haslem	6	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.15	5	17	-12	14.8	14.8	0.04	14.8	14.3	0.53
Briante Weber	6	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.15	5	17	-12	14.8	14.8	0.04	14.8	14.3	0.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.57,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.71,0.76,0.75,0.68,0.7,0.81,0.8,0.85,0.85,0.79,0.89,0.9,0.84,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 94, LAL 117	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.53,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.49,0.57,0.53,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.64,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.65,0.61,0.69,0.65,0.74,0.73,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.77,0.85,0.83,0.88,0.89,0.93,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.94,0.89,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%
PHI 79, IND 92	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.56,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.71,0.71,0.74,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.79,0.84,0.82,0.85,0.84,0.87,0.9,0.92,0.91,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%
ATL 89, PHI 107	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.57,0.51,0.57,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.65,0.67,0.72,0.75,0.77,0.74,0.7,0.67,0.75,0.79,0.79,0.8,0.81,0.84,0.89,0.91,0.9,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%