NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	115		Excitement	7.2 [404]		MVP	Gary Harris (DEN): +19.8%
Denver Nuggets	106		Comeback	5.9 [106]		LVP	Emmanuel Mudiay (DEN): -17.8%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben McLemore	0.17	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.07	0.11	0.01	12	58%	0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Willie Cauley-Stein	0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.09	0.06	0.02	7	78%	0.15	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Kosta Koufos	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07	0.06	0.02	0.00	10	57%	0.07	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.04
Rudy Gay	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.02	18	51%	0.07	0	0.00	13	77%	0.01
Seth Curry	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	-0.01	0.00	10	81%	0.14	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
James Anderson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.07	-0.03	0.00	10	57%	0.04	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Darren Collison	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	0.06	0.01	13	42%	0.09	3	-0.09	7	86%	0.03
Quincy Acy	-0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	8	31%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Harris	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2	0.20	0.14	0.05	-0.01	11	73%	0.20	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Axel Toupane	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.16,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.11	0.01	0.01	6	78%	0.13	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
JaKarr Sampson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	7	64%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joffrey Lauvergne	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	-0.01	12	58%	0.04	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.03
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.04	-0.00	6	64%	0.09	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.00	0.01	8	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.01	6	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jusuf Nurkic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	10	37%	-0.04	1	-0.04	4	25%	-0.06
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.12	-0.04	-0.02	9	10%	-0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Emmanuel Mudiay	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.10	-0.06	0.02	17	42%	-0.06	4	-0.12	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.4	2.3	27.6	16.3	28.6	2.4	32.6	131.2
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +25.3%

SAC +15.7%

SAC +0.2%

SAC +6.4%

SAC +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	DEN	NBA	SAC	DEN	NBA
this game	15.0	15.0	14.9	119.8	110.4	105.1
season	13.9	14.9		104.8	104.3
opponent	14.9	14.6		107.8	107.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	16.0	14.2	14.6	15.4	15.0
DEN	14.6	16.4	12.6	16.6	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kosta Koufos	63	63	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.23	14	-5	19	14.3	16.4	-2.11	14.7	15.4	-0.62
Darren Collison	79	77	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.23	12	-3	15	15.4	13.3	2.12	15.1	14.5	0.60
Ben McLemore	60	60	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.38	6	3	3	15.6	14.1	1.53	15.3	14.3	1.00
Willie Cauley-Stein	77	75	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.18	6	3	3	15.3	13.9	1.36	15.3	13.9	1.41
James Anderson	46	47	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.07	9	0	9	13.9	16.1	-2.25	14.8	15.1	-0.34
Rudy Gay	71	73	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.17	3	6	-3	15.6	13.6	2.00	14.7	15.7	-0.97
Seth Curry	51	52	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.08	0	9	-9	13.7	16.6	-2.85	14.4	15.6	-1.25
Quincy Acy	33	33	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	0.00	-5	14	-19	16.4	14.3	2.11	15.4	14.7	0.62

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
JaKarr Sampson	53	53	0.23	-0.73	0.96	0.02	7	-16	23	14.6	15.3	-0.71	15.9	14.0	1.84
Kenneth Faried	32	32	0.13	-0.63	0.76	0.01	4	-13	17	14.3	15.3	-0.92	16.8	14.2	2.61
Gary Harris	73	73	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.05	2	-11	13	14.5	16.5	-2.00	15.2	14.7	0.46
Emmanuel Mudiay	57	56	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-10	11	15.2	14.5	0.71	15.8	13.9	1.87
Nikola Jokic	63	63	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.01	-1	-8	7	15.0	14.9	0.03	15.3	14.5	0.85
D.J. Augustin	39	40	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.20	-10	1	-11	14.5	15.2	-0.71	13.9	15.8	-1.87
Axel Toupane	40	40	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.33	-8	-1	-7	15.3	14.7	0.63	14.4	15.5	-1.14
Joffrey Lauvergne	46	46	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.27	-10	1	-11	16.5	13.5	3.00	14.8	15.3	-0.50
Will Barton	43	43	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.17	-14	5	-19	14.3	15.5	-1.10	14.0	15.8	-1.80
Jusuf Nurkic	34	34	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.17	-16	7	-23	15.3	14.8	0.47	13.7	15.8	-2.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.62,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.61,0.63,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.64,0.7,0.71,0.66,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.82,0.85,0.72,0.7,0.67,0.52,0.66,0.7,0.68,0.48,0.37,0.31,0.12,0.17,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 108, GSW 99	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.46,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.72,0.59,0.64,0.58,0.56,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.73,0.74,0.77,0.84,0.83,0.78,0.71,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.57,0.42,0.31,0.16,0.22,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.02,0	93.2%
CLE 111, IND 99	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.73,0.64,0.67,0.59,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.67,0.76,0.84,0.77,0.68,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.26,0.15,0.17,0.14,0.04,0,0,0	93.0%
PHX 88, LAC 83	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.71,0.73,0.7,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.7,0.78,0.71,0.72,0.69,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.66,0.69,0.63,0.68,0.62,0.7,0.62,0.57,0.42,0.21,0.2,0.13,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0	92.4%