NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	112		Excitement	5.1 [806]		MVP	Seth Curry (SAC): +24.1%
Sacramento Kings	106		Comeback	1.4 [378]		LVP	Rudy Gay (SAC): -22.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gerald Green	0.15	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.19,0.2,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.24	-0.03	0.05	19	73%	0.15	0	0.00	3	100%	0.00
Joe Johnson	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.13,0.12	-0.06	0.12	-0.06	11	61%	0.21	6	-0.09	1	100%	0.01
Hassan Whiteside	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09	-0.02	0.08	-0.03	4	60%	0.11	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.09
Luol Deng	0.09	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.09	0.08	0.01	-0.00	12	71%	0.12	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Justise Winslow	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.02	12	48%	0.05	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Amar'e Stoudemire	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.00	0.02	4	80%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Goran Dragic	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.01	12	56%	0.04	4	-0.05	8	87%	-0.00
Josh Richardson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	8	44%	-0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Seth Curry	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.15	0.12	0.03	10	75%	0.25	1	-0.01	8	87%	0.05
Darren Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.1,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.16	-0.05	0.07	13	74%	0.11	2	-0.07	9	100%	0.04
James Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	5	70%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.03	0.01	11	50%	0.06	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.02
Ben McLemore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	5	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Quincy Acy	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Omri Casspi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0.01	3	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Willie Cauley-Stein	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	6	29%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.12	-0.00	-0.02	7	28%	-0.05	3	-0.05	4	75%	0.00
Rudy Gay	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.19,-0.23	-0.23	-0.08	-0.13	0.02	21	45%	-0.18	4	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	1.8	31.5	15.4	27.4	2.5	42.9	145.3
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +54.3%

MIA +1.6%

SAC -4.1%

MIA +1.1%

SAC -3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	SAC	NBA	MIA	SAC	NBA
this game	17.1	13.2	14.9	117.9	111.6	105.1
season	15.5	13.9		104.5	104.8
opponent	14.6	15.1		107.1	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.1	18.8	17.0	18.7	17.1
SAC	15.2	14.6	12.3	10.8	13.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Johnson	73	71	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.30	8	-2	10	17.0	17.5	-0.55	13.5	12.4	1.03
Luol Deng	71	72	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.00	15	-9	24	16.1	20.3	-4.24	13.1	13.6	-0.55
Gerald Green	63	63	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.18	5	1	4	17.7	16.1	1.56	13.9	11.9	1.98
Hassan Whiteside	59	58	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.46	-5	11	-16	17.9	15.9	2.04	13.3	13.0	0.35
Goran Dragic	63	63	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.31	-2	8	-10	16.8	17.8	-0.99	12.5	14.6	-2.12
Justise Winslow	58	58	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.42	-6	12	-18	18.1	15.6	2.55	12.8	13.7	-0.88
Josh Richardson	52	54	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.03	6	0	6	17.4	16.8	0.66	13.3	13.1	0.16
Amar'e Stoudemire	36	36	0.18	0.32	-0.13	-0.08	9	-3	12	15.9	17.9	-2.04	13.2	13.2	0.10

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Anderson	39	39	0.18	-0.68	0.86	-0.23	14	-20	34	12.4	13.7	-1.37	17.9	16.6	1.31
Quincy Acy	28	29	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.14	-10	4	-14	13.9	12.9	1.05	15.4	17.9	-2.51
Seth Curry	64	64	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.23	1	-7	8	12.4	14.8	-2.40	17.1	17.2	-0.15
Willie Cauley-Stein	41	41	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.15	-2	-4	2	14.8	12.0	2.76	18.3	16.2	2.05
Ben McLemore	41	40	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.22	-1	-5	4	12.3	13.8	-1.49	18.7	16.0	2.67
Rajon Rondo	56	57	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.09	-7	1	-8	13.7	12.4	1.37	16.6	17.9	-1.37
Omri Casspi	16	16	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	0.16	-16	10	-26	15.1	12.8	2.25	13.6	17.8	-4.21
Kosta Koufos	46	45	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.24	-3	-3	0	12.4	13.9	-1.55	16.6	17.6	-1.08
Darren Collison	66	66	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.49	4	-10	14	12.9	13.8	-0.82	17.9	15.4	2.51
Rudy Gay	78	78	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.28	-10	4	-14	13.5	11.8	1.66	16.8	18.5	-1.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.5,0.49,0.58,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.3,0.22,0.16,0.15,0.12,0.14,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.04,0.08,0.13,0.11,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.23,0.26,0.19,0.22,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 118, BKN 111	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.21,0.16,0.18,0.11,0.15,0.14,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.09,0.05,0.1,0.15,0.02,0.02,0	93.8%
MIN 109, NYK 100	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.54,0.54,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.31,0.24,0.18,0.16,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.13,0.14,0.16,0.13,0.14,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.22,0.1,0.02,0.02,0,0	93.7%
GSW 106, NYK 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.54,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.32,0.33,0.33,0.27,0.25,0.24,0.17,0.12,0.09,0.15,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.16,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.02,0,0,0	93.5%