NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	117		Excitement	6.6 [513]		MVP	CJ McCollum (POR): +28.3%
New Orleans Pelicans	112		Comeback	2.5 [502]		LVP	Alonzo Gee (NOP): -23.1%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
CJ McCollum	0.28	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.28,0.28	0.11	0.15	-0.02	23	59%	0.30	2	-0.02	5	80%	-0.00
Damian Lillard	0.25	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.25	0.11	0.15	0.00	19	66%	0.32	4	-0.07	12	100%	0.14
Gerald Henderson	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.10	0.05	-0.02	10	68%	0.19	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.02
Ed Davis	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.08	0.00	0.01	5	83%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Noah Vonleh	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	2	120%	0.07	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Al-Farouq Aminu	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	5	58%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chris Kaman	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	0.03	-0.06	0.01	4	69%	0.13	2	-0.17	8	87%	0.04
Allen Crabbe	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	0.00	-0.03	5	8%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Maurice Harkless	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.12	0.00	-0.04	5	0%	-0.05	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jrue Holiday	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.35,0.29,0.19,0.2	0.20	0.19	0.06	0.06	19	71%	0.21	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.02
Tim Frazier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.03	0.09	-0.00	6	76%	0.18	4	-0.07	5	80%	0.01
Dante Cunningham	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.12,0.09	0.09	-0.03	0.12	-0.01	4	30%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.15	-0.02	0.03	21	60%	0.09	0	0.00	8	100%	0.03
Luke Babbitt	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Davis	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.00	18	49%	0.02	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Toney Douglas	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	10	50%	0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Omer Asik	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Alonzo Gee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.23	-0.23	-0.06	-0.17	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.21	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	1.7	29.1	15.5	25.7	1.8	44.2	143.3
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOP -2.6%

POR +43.2%

POR +12.8%

NOP -3.9%

POR +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	NOP	NBA	POR	NOP	NBA
this game	16.0	13.1	14.9	118.2	113.1	105.1
season	15.0	14.3		107.1	104.3
opponent	15.0	14.6		107.9	106.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	16.9	14.6	16.3	16.4	16.0
NOP	13.1	13.6	13.7	12.0	13.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
CJ McCollum	72	75	0.58	-0.08	0.65	-0.04	21	-16	37	15.8	16.7	-0.89	13.1	13.0	0.04
Al-Farouq Aminu	62	61	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.18	9	-4	13	14.9	17.9	-3.07	13.0	13.1	-0.06
Mason Plumlee	63	64	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.23	6	-1	7	15.2	17.4	-2.19	13.3	12.6	0.73
Damian Lillard	74	72	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.40	-4	9	-13	15.9	16.4	-0.45	13.0	13.1	-0.11
Gerald Henderson	55	57	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.39	-7	12	-19	17.3	14.5	2.78	12.6	13.7	-1.16
Noah Vonleh	24	25	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.08	9	-4	13	15.4	16.2	-0.80	13.4	13.0	0.39
Maurice Harkless	41	39	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.13	1	4	-3	17.0	15.3	1.63	13.6	12.7	0.81
Allen Crabbe	60	60	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.36	-7	12	-19	16.0	16.1	-0.09	12.7	13.7	-0.98
Ed Davis	42	40	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.19	-2	7	-9	17.3	15.1	2.16	13.2	12.9	0.30
Chris Kaman	2	2	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.01	-1	6	-7	18.5	16.0	2.53	15.0	13.0	1.97

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luke Babbitt	13	14	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.14	4	-9	13	13.3	13.0	0.27	16.3	16.0	0.31
Kendrick Perkins	34	34	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.15	1	-6	7	13.6	12.8	0.79	16.8	15.6	1.13
Anthony Davis	30	29	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.09	-11	6	-17	13.7	12.8	0.90	14.9	16.5	-1.54
Omer Asik	27	27	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.11	-12	7	-19	13.7	12.8	0.87	15.3	16.3	-1.05
Ryan Anderson	75	77	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.56	10	-15	25	13.0	13.3	-0.29	16.1	15.6	0.55
Tim Frazier	55	54	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.31	1	-6	7	12.5	13.7	-1.22	16.8	15.1	1.71
Alonzo Gee	59	58	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.18	-4	-1	-3	12.4	14.0	-1.56	16.5	15.4	1.08
Jrue Holiday	79	78	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.39	3	-8	11	12.8	14.0	-1.16	16.1	15.6	0.57
Dante Cunningham	58	58	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.29	-1	-4	3	13.0	13.1	-0.09	15.8	16.3	-0.51
Toney Douglas	65	66	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	0.04	-16	11	-27	13.6	12.0	1.63	15.2	17.6	-2.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.34,0.28,0.31,0.29,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.28,0.21,0.17,0.13,0.1,0.14,0.13,0.16,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.09,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.08,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.13,0.19,0.33,0.25,0.63,0.55,0.26,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 92, CHI 91	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.45,0.43,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.28,0.22,0.16,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.19,0.08,0.06,0.17,0.32,0.54,0.55,0.42,0	93.3%
SEA 86, IND 83	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.4,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.2,0.13,0.19,0.2,0.14,0.17,0.19,0.22,0.21,0.26,0.25,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.1,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.19,0.11,0.12,0.22,0.25,0.45,0.24,0.1,0	91.8%
MIA 104, LAC 101	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.33,0.29,0.23,0.21,0.14,0.15,0.21,0.15,0.14,0.11,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.16,0.12,0.14,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.24,0.55,0.33,0.08,0	91.5%