NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	109		Excitement	7.5 [363]		MVP	Josh Richardson (MIA): +28.7%
Miami Heat	106		Comeback	4.8 [138]		LVP	Goran Dragic (MIA): -11.2%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nicolas Batum	0.26	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.18,0.26,0.26,0.26	-0.03	0.21	-0.08	19	46%	0.34	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.03
Al Jefferson	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18	0.08	0.09	-0.00	16	60%	0.20	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.04
Frank Kaminsky	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	4	75%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kemba Walker	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.02	0.01	18	54%	0.13	1	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Courtney Lee	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	6	72%	0.10	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.02
Tyler Hansbrough	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	1	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Troy Daniels	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	2	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Lin	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.05	-0.06	0.09	-0.01	6	37%	0.07	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.07
Cody Zeller	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	0.01	0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01	0.08	-0.03	0.03	8	67%	0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.06

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.24,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.13	0.16	-0.00	9	82%	0.35	2	-0.06	4	25%	-0.12
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.05	-0.01	13	69%	0.20	3	-0.05	6	100%	0.04
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.14,0.13	0.13	0.10	0.04	0.01	9	68%	0.13	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.05	-0.00	10	65%	0.17	3	-0.07	6	83%	0.02
Amar'e Stoudemire	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.02	0.01	3	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	60%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.1	-0.10	-0.12	-0.03	-0.05	13	34%	-0.01	3	-0.09	6	83%	0.02
Goran Dragic	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.05	0.01	16	50%	0.02	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.1	2.7	31.8	14.8	23.5	2.4	41.4	138.6
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHA +15.5%

MIA -1.4%

CHA +19.0%

CHA +18.2%

MIA -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	MIA	NBA	CHA	MIA	NBA
this game	16.4	14.4	14.9	116.0	114.0	105.1
season	15.1	15.5		105.5	104.5
opponent	15.1	14.8		103.1	103.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHA	14.5	16.0	17.9	17.3	16.4
MIA	14.3	13.3	16.4	14.0	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marvin Williams	61	61	0.78	-0.28	1.05	0.31	16	-13	29	16.0	16.9	-0.86	15.2	12.9	2.34
Nicolas Batum	73	75	0.73	-0.23	0.97	0.32	14	-11	25	16.0	17.6	-1.63	14.7	13.2	1.58
Kemba Walker	82	82	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.33	13	-10	23	16.0	18.9	-2.94	15.1	9.8	5.24
Al Jefferson	50	50	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.45	-4	7	-11	17.5	15.1	2.41	14.7	14.1	0.65
Jeremy Lin	41	39	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.19	2	1	1	15.1	17.3	-2.27	12.0	16.2	-4.16
Courtney Lee	70	69	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.45	-8	11	-19	17.4	13.3	4.11	14.8	13.4	1.38
Cody Zeller	30	30	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.11	11	-8	19	14.4	17.3	-2.87	14.4	14.5	-0.06
Tyler Hansbrough	11	11	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	-0.01	-4	7	-11	20.8	15.8	5.06	15.1	14.4	0.74
Troy Daniels	18	16	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	0.07	-12	15	-27	16.7	16.3	0.39	12.9	14.8	-1.89
Frank Kaminsky	34	32	-0.31	0.81	-1.12	0.07	-13	16	-29	16.4	16.3	0.10	12.9	15.2	-2.34

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Richardson	47	49	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.17	7	-10	17	13.3	15.6	-2.31	17.1	15.5	1.65
Luol Deng	69	70	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.31	9	-12	21	14.2	15.0	-0.81	16.1	17.0	-0.82
Hassan Whiteside	53	54	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.39	8	-11	19	13.6	15.6	-1.99	17.1	15.4	1.66
Justise Winslow	60	60	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.32	4	-7	11	13.8	15.6	-1.76	17.5	14.3	3.22
Goran Dragic	70	72	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.35	4	-7	11	14.3	15.0	-0.69	16.5	16.0	0.52
Amar'e Stoudemire	39	38	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.03	-11	8	-19	15.8	13.4	2.42	16.2	16.5	-0.32
Dwyane Wade	61	60	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.21	-16	13	-29	15.4	12.7	2.67	15.0	18.8	-3.78
Joe Johnson	66	67	-0.91	0.41	-1.32	-0.32	-20	17	-37	15.2	12.5	2.71	15.6	18.3	-2.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.66,0.73,0.78,0.82,0.75,0.71,0.64,0.64,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.42,0.57,0.52,0.45,0.35,0.38,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.15,0.26,0.34,0.24,0.37,0.42,0.24,0.33,0.14,0.06,0.1,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 102, SAC 85	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.71,0.76,0.79,0.78,0.74,0.64,0.59,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.35,0.22,0.35,0.3,0.3,0.28,0.3,0.19,0.25,0.38,0.42,0.53,0.41,0.39,0.15,0.01,0,0,0	92.2%
DAL 92, SAS 86	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.74,0.69,0.71,0.58,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.24,0.32,0.21,0.24,0.27,0.25,0.15,0.15,0.08,0	92.2%
NOH 95, MIL 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.5,0.56,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.56,0.59,0.5,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.31,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.25,0.33,0.32,0.41,0.16,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.07,0,0	92.2%