NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	110		Excitement	4.8 [872]		MVP	Jason Smith (ORL): +26.1%
Orlando Magic	116		Comeback	1.1 [1025]		LVP	Mario Hezonja (ORL): -12.3%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Will Barton	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.02	-0.01	8	68%	0.12	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.00
Joffrey Lauvergne	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	9	67%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03	0.07	-0.01	0.03	8	74%	0.05	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Darrell Arthur	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02	0.06	0.01	0.05	11	59%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Harris	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0	0.04	-0.01	0.04	12	62%	0.06	3	-0.06	5	80%	0.00
Axel Toupane	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.01	4	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JaKarr Sampson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Augustin	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.00	9	50%	0.06	3	-0.08	6	100%	0.04
Kenneth Faried	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	5	58%	0.01	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Emmanuel Mudiay	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	12	54%	0.01	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.2,0.21,0.2,0.22,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.13	0.10	-0.03	15	69%	0.27	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.02
Victor Oladipo	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.11	0.04	-0.02	16	61%	0.18	1	-0.01	6	83%	-0.00
Evan Fournier	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.14	-0.01	0.01	19	71%	0.19	3	-0.07	4	75%	-0.00
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.11	0.00	0.00	10	80%	0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	2	86%	0.08	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.02	7	60%	0.04	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.00
Dewayne Dedmon	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
CJ Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	6	17%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mario Hezonja	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	1.8	23.7	15.0	25.2	1.7	39.2	130.3
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +47.8%

DEN -7.2%

ORL +6.1%

ORL +3.6%

DEN -0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	ORL	NBA	DEN	ORL	NBA
this game	14.4	14.5	14.9	110.0	117.2	105.1
season	14.9	14.6		104.3	103.6
opponent	14.9	14.9		105.2	107.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	16.0	16.0	14.2	12.0	14.4
ORL	16.0	13.4	14.0	14.8	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Axel Toupane	25	26	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.02	-3	-3	0	15.3	14.1	1.19	14.5	14.5	-0.02
D.J. Augustin	71	71	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.46	13	-19	32	13.1	17.7	-4.64	14.5	14.7	-0.23
Joffrey Lauvergne	48	47	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.10	-1	-5	4	13.8	15.0	-1.15	15.1	14.0	1.09
JaKarr Sampson	16	15	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	0.05	-6	0	-6	18.1	13.7	4.32	15.7	14.3	1.44
Darrell Arthur	61	60	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.19	0	-6	6	13.4	16.1	-2.74	14.2	14.9	-0.67
Will Barton	65	64	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.38	4	-10	14	13.9	15.5	-1.58	15.2	13.3	1.95
Kenneth Faried	27	28	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.03	-11	5	-16	18.0	13.1	4.84	14.5	14.5	-0.02
Nikola Jokic	52	52	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.23	-5	-1	-4	15.0	13.8	1.15	14.0	15.1	-1.09
Emmanuel Mudiay	58	57	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.10	-13	7	-20	15.0	13.6	1.40	13.8	15.5	-1.63
Gary Harris	77	75	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.26	-8	2	-10	14.3	15.0	-0.74	14.5	14.6	-0.09

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Victor Oladipo	79	82	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.32	11	-5	16	14.8	13.2	1.59	14.6	13.7	0.93
Brandon Jennings	56	55	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.10	14	-8	22	14.3	14.8	-0.49	15.2	13.5	1.67
Aaron Gordon	55	55	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.07	14	-8	22	13.9	15.3	-1.45	15.3	13.4	1.91
Evan Fournier	89	89	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.26	6	0	6	14.2	17.1	-2.88	14.4	14.5	-0.13
Dewayne Dedmon	40	39	0.41	0.09	0.33	-0.08	17	-11	28	14.1	14.8	-0.74	16.9	12.9	4.00
Jason Smith	59	61	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.41	-11	17	-28	14.8	14.1	0.74	12.9	16.9	-4.00
Ersan Ilyasova	44	45	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.25	-8	14	-22	15.3	13.9	1.45	13.4	15.3	-1.91
CJ Watson	43	45	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.23	-8	14	-22	14.8	14.3	0.49	13.5	15.2	-1.67
Mario Hezonja	30	29	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.08	-5	11	-16	14.5	14.5	0.03	14.0	14.6	-0.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.63,0.66,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.64,0.72,0.77,0.82,0.88,0.88,0.86,0.9,0.89,0.92,0.95,0.88,0.96,0.96,0.89,0.87,0.74,0.74,0.82,0.79,0.81,0.87,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.93,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 107, PHI 116	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.63,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.63,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.69,0.67,0.66,0.73,0.66,0.64,0.72,0.7,0.78,0.84,0.84,0.8,0.87,0.9,0.92,0.94,0.92,0.9,0.83,0.75,0.78,0.7,0.82,0.83,0.91,0.92,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.94,1,1	95.0%
SAS 86, LAC 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.67,0.7,0.61,0.69,0.66,0.67,0.72,0.73,0.74,0.86,0.89,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.92,0.85,0.74,0.82,0.8,0.91,0.89,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.7%
NOH 98, ATL 121	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.66,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.61,0.65,0.67,0.66,0.66,0.77,0.73,0.78,0.84,0.8,0.85,0.81,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.89,0.9,0.91,0.82,0.94,0.87,0.88,0.86,0.81,0.89,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.7%