NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	107		Excitement	5.9 [649]		MVP	Ersan Ilyasova (ORL): +14.0%
Sacramento Kings	100		Comeback	1.6 [546]		LVP	Rudy Gay (SAC): -15.3%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ersan Ilyasova	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.06	0.08	-0.00	5	83%	0.16	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Evan Fournier	0.10	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.01	0.05	-0.05	15	48%	0.11	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.01
Dewayne Dedmon	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	6	69%	0.09	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Jason Smith	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.04	-0.01	9	67%	0.10	4	-0.04	6	67%	-0.00
Aaron Gordon	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	12	59%	0.04	2	-0.03	10	40%	-0.06
CJ Watson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.00	9	50%	0.04	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Brandon Jennings	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Victor Oladipo	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04	-0.07	-0.03	-0.06	14	50%	0.05	5	-0.08	8	62%	-0.01
Mario Hezonja	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	0.01	-0.03	6	29%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kosta Koufos	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.17	0.02	0.05	10	83%	0.14	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	11	74%	0.16	4	-0.10	1	100%	0.01
Willie Cauley-Stein	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.00	0.05	-0.01	9	55%	0.09	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Quincy Acy	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.03	-0.01	2	60%	0.06	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.01
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	14	57%	0.09	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Seth Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	6	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Omri Casspi	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.01	13	34%	-0.08	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Darren Collison	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.06	-0.02	14	26%	-0.13	0	0.00	3	67%	0.01
Rudy Gay	0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.14	-0.04	-0.02	9	43%	-0.03	6	-0.12	10	80%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.0	29.3	15.5	24.2	1.8	32.2	129.2
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +49.5%

SAC -14.0%

ORL +10.2%

ORL +3.4%

ORL +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	SAC	NBA	ORL	SAC	NBA
this game	13.7	14.3	14.9	102.9	98.0	105.1
season	14.6	13.9		103.6	104.8
opponent	14.6	14.9		107.1	105.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	13.0	14.6	13.7	13.4	13.7
SAC	15.8	13.6	15.7	12.3	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Victor Oladipo	83	81	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.20	7	0	7	14.2	11.8	2.36	14.6	13.2	1.37
CJ Watson	71	69	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.14	8	-1	9	14.2	12.6	1.59	14.8	13.2	1.66
Evan Fournier	81	79	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.27	3	4	-1	13.9	12.9	1.06	14.6	13.1	1.53
Jason Smith	53	52	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.32	1	6	-5	13.3	14.1	-0.87	13.0	15.6	-2.64
Ersan Ilyasova	48	46	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.18	3	4	-1	12.7	14.6	-1.90	13.7	14.8	-1.13
Mario Hezonja	44	44	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.12	4	3	1	12.4	14.7	-2.30	13.1	15.1	-2.00
Aaron Gordon	56	56	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.11	4	3	1	14.6	12.7	1.90	14.8	13.7	1.13
Dewayne Dedmon	51	50	0.16	0.34	-0.19	-0.02	6	1	5	14.1	13.3	0.87	15.6	13.0	2.64
Brandon Jennings	33	33	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.15	-1	8	-9	12.6	14.2	-1.59	13.2	14.8	-1.66

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Caron Butler	3	3	0.14	-0.64	0.77	-0.01	5	-12	17	15.3	14.2	1.09	13.3	13.7	-0.37
Seth Curry	40	41	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.16	1	-8	9	13.6	14.7	-1.11	13.4	13.9	-0.42
Kosta Koufos	51	52	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.11	-3	-4	1	14.5	14.1	0.43	13.2	14.2	-1.00
Omri Casspi	63	65	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.30	3	-10	13	13.0	16.4	-3.46	13.7	13.7	-0.04
Marco Belinelli	61	61	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.34	3	-10	13	13.9	14.9	-1.05	14.0	13.2	0.78
Quincy Acy	26	28	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.18	-15	8	-23	17.6	13.1	4.48	14.6	13.3	1.30
Willie Cauley-Stein	45	45	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.22	-3	-4	1	14.1	14.4	-0.37	13.9	13.5	0.35
Rudy Gay	60	61	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.18	-6	-1	-5	14.8	13.5	1.28	13.8	13.5	0.31
Rajon Rondo	83	83	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.26	-6	-1	-5	14.6	12.8	1.82	13.4	14.8	-1.40
Darren Collison	78	81	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.07	-14	7	-21	14.1	14.9	-0.84	13.7	13.7	-0.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.3,0.31,0.28,0.34,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.35,0.32,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.5,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.58,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.3,0.2,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.17,0.09,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 104, BOS 92	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.39,0.4,0.31,0.32,0.35,0.4,0.44,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.53,0.54,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.3,0.35,0.3,0.34,0.22,0.11,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	94.0%
PHX 115, NYK 104	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.36,0.37,0.31,0.29,0.26,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.34,0.36,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.35,0.37,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.52,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.46,0.26,0.14,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.6%
LAL 122, WAS 107	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.53,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.33,0.32,0.31,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.42,0.34,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.36,0.5,0.46,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.3,0.25,0.26,0.3,0.21,0.2,0.15,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	93.5%