NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	91		Excitement	5.6 [702]		MVP	Monta Ellis (IND): +21.4%
Indiana Pacers	99		Comeback	1.2 [347]		LVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): -16.3%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.04	0.01	20	51%	0.09	0	0.00	5	100%	0.03
Patty Mills	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.05	0.09	-0.03	0.01	13	61%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
David West	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Anderson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Danny Green	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	8	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	9	43%	-0.00	3	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Tony Parker	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	8	33%	-0.04	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Kawhi Leonard	-0.14	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.13,-0.11,-0.15,-0.14	-0.02	-0.10	0.01	23	44%	-0.11	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.02
Manu Ginobili	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.13	-0.05	-0.02	8	12%	-0.12	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.1,0.07,0.11,0.17,0.21	0.21	0.14	0.08	0.00	13	76%	0.32	3	-0.11	8	100%	0.06
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	-0.01	-0.03	7	63%	0.10	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02
Paul George	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	20	49%	0.06	1	-0.01	7	100%	0.03
Jordan Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	-0.02	9	44%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Solomon Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	0.00	0.03	2	83%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ian Mahinmi	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	8	55%	0.02	3	-0.06	4	75%	0.00
George Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	7	36%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Myles Turner	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	11	35%	-0.05	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.1	2.4	26.9	15.8	28.5	2.0	38.2	136.0
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +52.2%

IND +10.7%

SAS -4.4%

SAS -7.3%

SAS -1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	IND	NBA	SAS	IND	NBA
this game	16.0	14.3	14.9	96.8	103.1	105.1
season	15.7	14.6		109.0	103.2
opponent	14.9	14.7		101.6	97.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	18.8	16.9	15.5	13.3	16.0
IND	14.0	15.1	12.8	15.5	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Anderson	19	19	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.01	-5	-3	-2	15.8	16.1	-0.22	15.3	14.1	1.25
Tim Duncan	58	58	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.07	-3	-5	2	15.1	17.5	-2.40	14.3	14.3	-0.01
Danny Green	57	57	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.22	1	-9	10	15.4	17.1	-1.70	14.5	14.1	0.40
Patty Mills	45	47	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.10	-5	-3	-2	15.2	16.7	-1.49	13.9	14.7	-0.78
Boris Diaw	26	27	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.04	-7	-1	-6	17.8	15.4	2.42	13.9	14.5	-0.59
Tony Parker	49	48	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.01	-9	1	-10	16.8	15.2	1.58	14.2	14.4	-0.25
Manu Ginobili	35	38	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.20	-3	-5	2	17.0	15.4	1.56	14.7	14.1	0.57
LaMarcus Aldridge	74	77	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.32	1	-9	10	15.7	17.3	-1.62	14.8	12.4	2.42
David West	30	30	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.10	-7	-1	-6	17.1	15.5	1.63	13.5	14.7	-1.23
Kawhi Leonard	77	79	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.28	-3	-5	2	16.1	15.7	0.39	14.1	15.3	-1.19

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Myles Turner	73	71	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.06	16	-8	24	14.7	13.0	1.73	16.0	16.1	-0.09
Paul George	74	72	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.19	6	2	4	14.0	15.3	-1.30	16.1	15.8	0.32
Monta Ellis	76	74	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.22	5	3	2	14.1	15.1	-1.06	15.9	16.4	-0.54
George Hill	69	69	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.17	5	3	2	14.6	13.7	0.90	15.7	16.9	-1.17
Rodney Stuckey	38	36	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.11	5	3	2	14.3	14.3	-0.08	16.0	16.0	-0.03
Ian Mahinmi	62	61	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.25	0	8	-8	14.3	14.3	0.03	16.2	15.7	0.50
Jordan Hill	54	53	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.24	0	8	-8	14.5	14.1	0.43	16.0	16.0	-0.01
Solomon Hill	25	25	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.05	2	6	-4	13.6	14.6	-1.02	15.4	16.2	-0.79
Ty Lawson	9	9	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.03	1	7	-6	14.4	14.3	0.15	19.4	15.7	3.79

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.61,0.69,0.74,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.77,0.83,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.81,0.8,0.84,0.77,0.69,0.8,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.8,0.72,0.69,0.84,0.85,0.9,0.85,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.93,0.88,0.87,0.86,0.9,0.9,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 108, POR 114	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.7,0.71,0.78,0.74,0.76,0.76,0.8,0.85,0.85,0.81,0.84,0.8,0.78,0.77,0.79,0.73,0.74,0.77,0.75,0.73,0.76,0.65,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.87,0.87,0.9,0.86,0.85,0.87,0.91,0.87,0.93,0.9,0.93,1,1	94.6%
NYK 89, UTA 100	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.65,0.67,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.79,0.84,0.82,0.78,0.81,0.73,0.69,0.75,0.8,0.8,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.79,0.78,0.72,0.7,0.77,0.82,0.92,0.95,0.88,0.87,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.93,0.93,0.97,0.99,1,1	94.5%
MIA 95, DEN 104	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.63,0.68,0.71,0.68,0.75,0.76,0.78,0.77,0.83,0.83,0.84,0.84,0.88,0.84,0.76,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.77,0.73,0.73,0.77,0.74,0.67,0.79,0.73,0.8,0.85,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.91,0.86,0.76,0.91,0.99,0.99,0.98,1,1	94.5%