NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	113		Excitement	7.4 [386]		MVP	James Harden (HOU): +58.9%
Toronto Raptors	107		Comeback	12.4 [25]		LVP	Donatas Motiejunas (HOU): -8.0%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Harden	0.59	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.59,0.59	0.26	0.36	0.02	20	68%	0.63	1	-0.04	19	79%	0.04
Trevor Ariza	0.22	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.09,0.09,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.07	0.16	0.01	8	81%	0.26	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0.19	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.13	0.04	-0.01	12	75%	0.18	2	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Corey Brewer	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.02	-0.01	19	61%	0.15	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Beverley	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.03	8	39%	0.03	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Montrezl Harrell	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clint Capela	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	2	42%	-0.05	0	0.00	8	37%	-0.07
Jason Terry	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donatas Motiejunas	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.00	5	29%	-0.03	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luis Scola	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.13	0.01	0.02	13	75%	0.15	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.16,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.05	-0.01	7	57%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.01	0.06	-0.01	10	41%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.03	-0.02	10	68%	0.16	3	-0.12	5	60%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	9	60%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Cory Joseph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.01	8	50%	0.07	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Norman Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.02,0	0.00	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	10	56%	0.14	5	-0.13	14	79%	-0.03
Bismack Biyombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	6	67%	0.04	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.4	1.7	32.2	15.7	28.9	1.8	41.2	148.9
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +41.0%

TOR -8.5%

TOR -9.6%

HOU +24.5%

HOU +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	TOR	NBA	HOU	TOR	NBA
this game	14.4	16.2	14.9	120.2	113.8	105.1
season	14.0	16.1		105.9	107.2
opponent	14.8	15.1		104.6	106.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	14.0	14.2	14.3	15.4	14.4
TOR	13.7	15.2	15.7	21.6	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Corey Brewer	54	54	0.86	-0.36	1.23	0.31	19	-13	32	15.1	13.5	1.63	17.7	14.2	3.53
James Harden	83	82	0.74	-0.24	0.97	0.24	17	-11	28	14.2	16.4	-2.18	16.7	12.7	4.05
Trevor Ariza	78	78	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.29	12	-6	18	14.2	15.6	-1.43	16.8	13.4	3.33
Clint Capela	23	21	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.29	11	-5	16	14.3	14.5	-0.12	13.5	17.0	-3.51
Patrick Beverley	80	80	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.36	1	5	-4	14.2	15.9	-1.67	16.3	15.6	0.74
Montrezl Harrell	8	9	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.04	-3	9	-12	14.7	14.4	0.34	14.4	16.4	-1.94
Dwight Howard	71	73	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.07	-6	12	-18	14.5	14.3	0.12	17.0	13.5	3.51
Jason Terry	30	30	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.06	-3	9	-12	15.5	13.9	1.61	14.2	17.1	-2.94
Donatas Motiejunas	43	43	-0.43	0.93	-1.36	0.10	-18	24	-42	14.1	14.7	-0.55	13.9	18.2	-4.32

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luis Scola	42	43	0.22	-0.72	0.94	0.02	7	-13	20	14.8	17.3	-2.52	14.2	14.6	-0.42
Norman Powell	8	6	0.13	-0.63	0.76	-0.02	5	-11	16	12.0	16.6	-4.59	14.8	14.4	0.42
James Johnson	56	57	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.10	-2	-4	2	15.3	17.5	-2.18	13.8	15.4	-1.55
Terrence Ross	30	30	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.01	0	-6	6	16.8	15.9	0.88	15.1	14.1	1.02
Bismack Biyombo	39	37	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.18	0	-6	6	16.3	16.1	0.18	15.5	13.8	1.69
Jonas Valanciunas	55	57	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.15	-6	0	-6	16.1	16.3	-0.18	13.8	15.5	-1.69
Kyle Lowry	75	76	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.39	-2	-4	2	15.9	17.3	-1.33	14.8	12.7	2.12
DeMar DeRozan	68	69	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.28	-6	0	-6	15.9	16.9	-0.94	13.8	16.2	-2.35
Patrick Patterson	51	50	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.38	-11	5	-16	17.6	14.5	3.07	14.6	14.2	0.44
Cory Joseph	46	45	-0.80	0.30	-1.10	-0.36	-15	9	-24	18.2	14.3	3.82	15.0	14.0	1.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.41,0.48,0.45,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.78,0.87,0.81,0.83,0.83,0.87,0.82,0.78,0.79,0.9,0.85,0.89,0.84,0.82,0.9,0.86,0.8,0.77,0.82,0.81,0.7,0.62,0.83,0.85,0.74,0.6,0.67,0.31,0.37,0.55,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 92, PHI 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.74,0.71,0.76,0.68,0.77,0.79,0.84,0.79,0.74,0.7,0.76,0.8,0.78,0.73,0.79,0.82,0.71,0.69,0.76,0.81,0.72,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.71,0.68,0.64,0.53,0.54,0.47,0.54,0.45,0.09,0	91.0%
MIA 90, GSW 82	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.53,0.6,0.64,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.61,0.66,0.75,0.79,0.86,0.86,0.87,0.84,0.85,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.81,0.77,0.81,0.79,0.7,0.66,0.75,0.67,0.68,0.64,0.65,0.53,0.38,0.29,0.31,0.04,0	90.6%
WAS 85, NJN 78	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.73,0.66,0.72,0.7,0.75,0.78,0.76,0.75,0.86,0.86,0.84,0.77,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.82,0.83,0.84,0.82,0.92,0.92,0.81,0.78,0.75,0.76,0.68,0.74,0.66,0.72,0.47,0.46,0.15,0.04,0	90.6%