NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	118		Excitement	10.0 [66]		MVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): +51.8%
Miami Heat	112		Comeback	4.6 [415]		LVP	Draymond Green (GSW): -15.5%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Curry	0.52	0,0,0,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.17,0.15,0.11,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.16,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0.1,0.52	0.10	0.43	0.01	29	64%	0.77	7	-0.26	8	100%	0.06
Klay Thompson	0.40	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.16,0.22,0.28,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.4	0.15	0.25	0.01	25	62%	0.44	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Harrison Barnes	0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.05	0.09	-0.01	6	65%	0.17	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.04
Leandro Barbosa	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.05	0.00	5	60%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Rush	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	1	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Andrew Bogut	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Iguodala	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.02,-0.02	0.05	-0.06	0.00	5	70%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anderson Varejao	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	17%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Shaun Livingston	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	7	29%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Draymond Green	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16	-0.03	-0.12	0.01	7	53%	-0.04	3	-0.12	5	80%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.14	0.09	0.00	6	107%	0.25	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.12,0.24,0.16	0.16	0.12	0.06	0.01	11	78%	0.26	2	-0.10	5	100%	0.03
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.07,0.14	0.14	0.09	0.05	0.00	20	63%	0.27	4	-0.13	11	91%	0.12
Luol Deng	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	-0.01	0.09	-0.02	15	42%	0.09	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.02
Josh McRoberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.01	0.07	-0.00	8	37%	0.06	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Goran Dragic	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02	0.02	-0.10	0.09	-0.03	17	36%	0.06	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.10
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Amar'e Stoudemire	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	7	57%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	2.5	29.2	15.7	28.6	3.5	41.3	147.0
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +62.9%

MIA -33.0%

GSW +24.6%

MIA -8.9%

GSW +4.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	MIA	NBA	GSW	MIA	NBA
this game	13.4	15.2	14.9	119.2	109.8	105.1
season	13.7	15.5		112.3	104.5
opponent	15.1	15.1		103.1	102.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	12.3	14.1	12.8	14.5	13.4
MIA	13.9	16.5	14.8	16.1	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stephen Curry	78	80	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.43	7	-1	8	12.5	16.5	-3.99	14.0	19.9	-5.95
Harrison Barnes	61	63	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.29	11	-5	16	12.3	15.2	-2.88	14.9	15.8	-0.93
Klay Thompson	70	72	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.30	9	-3	12	13.0	14.2	-1.16	15.5	14.7	0.73
Draymond Green	75	78	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.28	7	-1	8	12.9	15.0	-2.08	15.4	14.8	0.54
Shaun Livingston	29	30	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.15	9	-3	12	16.3	12.2	4.09	19.3	13.6	5.74
Brandon Rush	13	15	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.05	8	-2	10	14.1	13.3	0.80	18.7	14.7	4.01
Anderson Varejao	22	23	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.00	-2	8	-10	13.6	13.3	0.27	12.2	16.1	-3.91
Leandro Barbosa	29	30	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.02	-3	9	-12	14.2	13.0	1.16	14.7	15.5	-0.73
Andrew Bogut	60	59	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.05	-7	13	-20	13.9	12.6	1.23	16.2	13.9	2.27
Andre Iguodala	58	60	-0.24	0.74	-0.97	0.03	-9	15	-24	14.2	12.3	1.86	14.5	16.3	-1.81

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gerald Green	50	48	0.19	-0.69	0.88	-0.02	7	-13	20	16.1	14.4	1.64	15.2	11.7	3.46
Amar'e Stoudemire	14	14	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.01	2	-8	10	14.2	15.4	-1.19	10.3	13.9	-3.61
Josh Richardson	57	55	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.12	-3	-3	0	15.6	14.8	0.88	14.9	11.5	3.35
Josh McRoberts	30	29	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	0.05	-9	3	-12	16.6	14.7	1.92	12.9	13.6	-0.64
Hassan Whiteside	64	63	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.31	2	-8	10	15.6	14.7	0.89	14.5	11.4	3.13
Goran Dragic	74	73	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.26	-3	-3	0	14.7	16.6	-1.93	12.7	15.4	-2.77
Justise Winslow	72	69	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.30	-6	0	-6	14.7	16.7	-2.01	12.7	14.9	-2.18
Dwyane Wade	72	69	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.19	-13	7	-20	15.2	15.5	-0.31	12.9	14.6	-1.74
Luol Deng	77	75	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.46	-7	1	-8	14.9	16.2	-1.21	12.7	15.4	-2.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.63,0.67,0.6,0.65,0.73,0.68,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.78,0.73,0.66,0.78,0.7,0.7,0.58,0.46,0.42,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.48,0.44,0.62,0.57,0.52,0.48,0.53,0.59,0.59,0.53,0.47,0.22,0.43,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 117, GSW 109	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.73,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.69,0.67,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.58,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.58,0.38,0.57,0.42,0.58,0.47,0.47,0.34,0.31,0.28,0.45,0.16,0	90.7%
MIA 97, CHA 92	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.59,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.71,0.74,0.76,0.72,0.69,0.73,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.69,0.66,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.66,0.48,0.57,0.62,0.74,0.69,0.47,0.4,0.39,0.15,0.32,0.15,0	90.2%
CLE 97, SAC 93	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.64,0.7,0.68,0.64,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.72,0.67,0.64,0.67,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.45,0.36,0.29,0.45,0.52,0.57,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.62,0.71,0.63,0.69,0.76,0.53,0.38,0.45,0.35,0.73,0	90.1%