NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	115		Excitement	8.2 [249]		MVP	Luol Deng (MIA): +31.7%
Atlanta Hawks	111		Comeback	1.8 [217]		LVP	Paul Millsap (ATL): -16.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luol Deng	0.32	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.33,0.31,0.32,0.32	0.16	0.16	0.01	17	68%	0.39	1	-0.07	10	70%	-0.00
Josh McRoberts	0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.27,0.27,0.2,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.12	0.14	-0.00	13	73%	0.29	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Josh Richardson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.00	-0.00	4	87%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Goran Dragic	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04	-0.03	0.08	0.00	14	52%	0.17	4	-0.13	5	80%	0.03
Gerald Green	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	13	48%	0.06	3	-0.11	3	33%	-0.03
Amar'e Stoudemire	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	6	37%	-0.02	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.01
Justise Winslow	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.00	0.02	13	43%	-0.02	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01
Beno Udrih	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.16,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.00	6	25%	-0.01	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff Teague	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.19,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.14	0.16	0.04	14	77%	0.34	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.03	0.00	14	64%	0.14	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Schroder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.05	-0.01	10	73%	0.21	5	-0.14	2	100%	0.01
Mike Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	9	72%	0.11	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	11	52%	0.06	1	-0.04	5	100%	0.03
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	5	40%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Muscala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.04	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kent Bazemore	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.10	-0.06	-0.01	9	39%	-0.03	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17	-0.17	-0.06	-0.07	0.03	13	43%	-0.07	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	2.4	32.4	15.0	22.5	1.8	31.4	131.9
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +23.9%

ATL -3.1%

MIA +20.5%

MIA +7.7%

MIA +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ATL	NBA	MIA	ATL	NBA
this game	14.2	12.7	14.9	106.5	104.7	105.1
season	15.5	14.2		104.5	104.1
opponent	15.1	15.1		100.3	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.8	15.7	13.1	14.2	14.2
ATL	11.9	12.5	14.0	12.4	12.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luol Deng	86	86	0.81	-0.31	1.12	0.34	16	-12	28	13.7	16.0	-2.22	12.7	12.8	-0.16
Josh McRoberts	66	65	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.43	1	3	-2	14.6	13.5	1.16	12.5	13.0	-0.46
Justise Winslow	84	83	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.27	2	2	0	14.0	14.9	-0.94	12.5	13.6	-1.08
Goran Dragic	75	74	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.19	3	1	2	13.6	15.6	-2.05	13.0	12.1	0.94
Gerald Green	86	83	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.32	-4	8	-12	13.5	16.7	-3.14	12.5	13.3	-0.81
Josh Richardson	39	39	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.07	3	1	2	16.1	13.1	3.00	14.2	11.9	2.31
Beno Udrih	33	33	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.12	1	3	-2	15.6	13.6	2.05	11.9	13.1	-1.22
Amar'e Stoudemire	45	43	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.07	1	3	-2	13.5	14.7	-1.19	12.6	12.8	-0.15
Udonis Haslem	26	24	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	7	-10	15.7	13.7	1.93	12.8	12.7	0.10

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Scott	54	53	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.16	7	-11	18	12.7	12.7	-0.06	14.0	14.3	-0.33
Dennis Schroder	44	45	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.12	4	-8	12	12.9	12.6	0.33	15.1	13.5	1.59
Thabo Sefolosha	47	48	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.01	-2	-2	0	12.9	12.6	0.36	15.5	13.1	2.37
Mike Muscala	14	15	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.09	-8	4	-12	14.9	12.4	2.47	13.6	14.3	-0.68
Kyle Korver	77	79	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.37	4	-8	12	12.9	12.3	0.56	13.5	16.0	-2.48
Tim Hardaway Jr.	27	26	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.04	-9	5	-14	12.1	12.9	-0.81	15.7	13.7	2.04
Paul Millsap	62	68	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.36	0	-4	4	12.6	12.8	-0.21	13.4	15.4	-2.01
Jeff Teague	66	67	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.27	-3	-1	-2	12.5	13.0	-0.53	13.9	14.7	-0.80
Kent Bazemore	53	53	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.14	-10	6	-16	12.8	12.7	0.11	13.9	14.5	-0.62
Al Horford	86	86	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.54	-3	-1	-2	12.4	14.0	-1.58	14.3	13.6	0.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.49,0.45,0.55,0.48,0.31,0.34,0.4,0.32,0.58,0.43,0.43,0.48,0.32,0.31,0.12,0.17,0.45,0.1,0.09,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 100, MEM 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.3,0.3,0.49,0.42,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.52,0.4,0.58,0.66,0.62,0.43,0.32,0.21,0.15,0.27,0.31,0.21,0.02,0.02,0	91.8%
TOR 94, MIA 92	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.38,0.45,0.41,0.35,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.31,0.35,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.41,0.43,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.33,0.28,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.33,0.37,0.36,0.24,0.17,0.39,0.1,0.22,0.16,0	91.6%
UTA 92, VAN 82	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.43,0.39,0.43,0.4,0.44,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.41,0.36,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.6,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.31,0.27,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.52,0.37,0.36,0.24,0.39,0.32,0.16,0.01,0,0	91.6%