NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	112		Excitement	7.8 [302]		MVP	Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN): +38.7%
Minnesota Timberwolves	117		Comeback	7.8 [57]		LVP	Kyle Lowry (TOR): -14.0%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0.32	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.21,0.19,0.16,0.24,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.4,0.32,0.32	0.20	0.13	0.01	19	69%	0.35	1	-0.03	13	77%	0.04
Jonas Valanciunas	0.20	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.08	0.12	-0.01	4	100%	0.23	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.05
Patrick Patterson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	-0.00	7	57%	0.11	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Bismack Biyombo	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Terrence Ross	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.01	10	55%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Norman Powell	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	6	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lucas Nogueira	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Delon Wright	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luis Scola	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	9	36%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Cory Joseph	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07	-0.03	-0.06	-0.02	11	35%	-0.07	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.03
Kyle Lowry	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	15	37%	-0.09	1	-0.05	8	62%	-0.06

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Karl-Anthony Towns	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.17,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.36,0.38,0.39	0.39	0.25	0.18	0.04	19	69%	0.39	0	0.00	13	85%	0.01
Andrew Wiggins	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.11,0.19,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.06	0.25	0.01	18	53%	0.32	1	-0.02	13	77%	0.03
Ricky Rubio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	0.01	0.03	9	79%	0.21	3	-0.13	6	100%	0.02
Gorgui Dieng	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.00	-0.00	7	61%	0.09	2	-0.05	9	67%	0.01
Shabazz Muhammad	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.03	-0.00	6	44%	0.03	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Andre Miller	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adreian Payne	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nemanja Bjelica	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Zach LaVine	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	13	41%	0.01	1	-0.04	6	67%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	1.8	32.3	15.4	24.8	2.0	40.5	145.1
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +14.5%

MIN +23.0%

MIN +15.8%

TOR -9.2%

MIN +6.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIN	NBA	TOR	MIN	NBA
this game	16.5	14.5	14.9	120.4	125.8	105.1
season	16.1	14.8		107.2	104.8
opponent	15.0	14.8		108.4	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.7	16.7	18.9	15.9	16.5
MIN	16.0	14.0	13.2	14.7	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terrence Ross	52	50	0.04	-0.54	0.57	-0.23	9	-14	23	15.9	17.3	-1.43	15.5	13.3	2.26
Lucas Nogueira	9	9	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.04	-1	-4	3	16.4	16.5	-0.06	10.4	14.9	-4.46
Delon Wright	7	7	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.06	-3	-2	-1	17.6	16.4	1.16	9.1	14.9	-5.76
Bismack Biyombo	41	41	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.24	5	-10	15	14.4	18.2	-3.76	14.6	14.3	0.29
Patrick Patterson	56	56	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.48	11	-16	27	15.5	18.1	-2.59	16.1	12.0	4.06
Cory Joseph	50	51	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.36	5	-10	15	16.5	16.5	-0.03	15.3	13.5	1.73
Norman Powell	21	22	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.04	-11	6	-17	19.2	15.7	3.54	13.5	14.8	-1.27
Luis Scola	37	37	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.13	-16	11	-27	18.1	15.5	2.59	12.0	16.1	-4.06
Jonas Valanciunas	43	43	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.15	-9	4	-13	18.5	14.8	3.75	15.2	13.9	1.28
DeMar DeRozan	75	74	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.19	-9	4	-13	16.2	17.6	-1.32	13.6	17.7	-4.10
Kyle Lowry	74	75	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.39	-6	1	-7	16.3	17.2	-0.83	14.9	12.9	1.96

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew Wiggins	72	73	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.28	15	-10	25	13.8	16.8	-2.96	16.5	16.3	0.18
Gorgui Dieng	81	81	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.34	11	-6	17	14.0	17.6	-3.57	16.0	19.6	-3.55
Karl-Anthony Towns	66	67	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.16	11	-6	17	14.2	15.2	-1.00	17.4	14.2	3.14
Andre Miller	20	18	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.11	7	-2	9	16.4	13.9	2.45	20.6	15.5	5.10
Zach LaVine	72	71	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.31	-1	6	-7	15.0	12.6	2.46	16.4	16.8	-0.42
Ricky Rubio	73	75	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.24	-2	7	-9	13.9	16.4	-2.45	15.5	20.6	-5.10
Adreian Payne	14	14	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.10	1	4	-3	15.2	14.3	0.87	18.8	16.1	2.70
Shabazz Muhammad	42	42	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.11	-4	9	-13	14.7	14.3	0.35	16.6	16.4	0.18
Nemanja Bjelica	25	24	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	0.11	-13	18	-31	16.3	13.8	2.53	14.2	17.3	-3.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.49,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.35,0.33,0.26,0.18,0.23,0.16,0.13,0.15,0.22,0.16,0.23,0.34,0.31,0.24,0.39,0.37,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.33,0.4,0.46,0.38,0.52,0.58,0.65,0.79,0.76,0.78,0.61,0.55,0.69,0.9,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 100, MIA 109	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.33,0.36,0.28,0.32,0.32,0.33,0.25,0.26,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.2,0.14,0.18,0.21,0.16,0.22,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.57,0.53,0.69,0.65,0.72,0.75,0.71,0.77,0.98,1	92.1%
ORL 97, CHA 102	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.31,0.26,0.21,0.15,0.18,0.13,0.12,0.2,0.23,0.21,0.28,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.57,0.75,0.81,0.83,0.88,0.83,0.85,0.79,0.77,0.96,1	91.6%
SAS 103, SAC 107	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.36,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.22,0.26,0.18,0.22,0.3,0.21,0.23,0.31,0.3,0.21,0.19,0.25,0.3,0.41,0.33,0.35,0.38,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.73,0.79,0.65,0.67,0.62,0.71,0.94,0.92,1	91.3%