NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	100		Excitement	7.4 [357]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +34.9%
Miami Heat	109		Comeback	7.1 [318]		LVP	Danny Granger (IND): -10.5%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jarrett Jack	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.03	-0.03	3	62%	0.07	1	-0.01	7	71%	-0.03
Brandon Rush	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.00	-0.00	6	83%	0.10	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Marquis Daniels	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.11,0.12,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	21	53%	0.18	4	-0.15	5	60%	-0.04
Jeff Foster	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	36%	0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.03	0.00	10	54%	0.09	4	-0.11	4	75%	-0.01
T.J. Ford	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	10	48%	-0.01	3	-0.06	3	100%	0.01
Troy Murphy	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.02	-0.07	-0.00	7	43%	-0.03	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Danny Granger	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.11,-0.11	-0.02	-0.10	-0.01	18	59%	0.23	6	-0.34	3	100%	0.03

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.35,0.35,0.35	0.35	0.13	0.24	0.02	24	64%	0.43	4	-0.08	11	55%	-0.03
Chris Quinn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.03	0.07	-0.01	6	62%	0.12	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.04	0.01	11	65%	0.15	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.03
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	0.01	13	57%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Shawn Marion	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.02	0.00	15	56%	0.12	1	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Yakhouba Diawara	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	4	36%	-0.02	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	3	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	2.4	28.1	15.5	26.4	2.7	33.2	135.4
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +28.0%

IND -2.4%

IND -20.4%

MIA +49.4%

IND -4.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	MIA	NBA	IND	MIA	NBA
this game	14.1	15.3	15.5	102.0	111.2	106.4
season	14.1	16.0		106.5	105.9
opponent	15.7	15.3		105.7	107.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	12.9	14.3	14.1	15.1	14.1
MIA	16.4	14.0	14.1	16.8	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Foster	42	40	0.24	-0.74	0.98	-0.02	9	-18	27	15.2	13.3	1.90	15.1	15.4	-0.35
Brandon Rush	44	41	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.08	0	-9	9	16.0	12.5	3.56	16.3	14.6	1.65
Jarrett Jack	49	50	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.16	2	-11	13	13.8	14.3	-0.49	15.6	15.0	0.60
T.J. Ford	53	53	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.10	-8	-1	-7	14.3	13.8	0.52	14.8	15.9	-1.08
Rasho Nesterovic	77	78	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.22	-8	-1	-7	14.0	14.4	-0.44	15.2	15.7	-0.56
Danny Granger	73	75	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.17	-10	1	-11	13.7	15.1	-1.34	15.2	15.5	-0.28
Marquis Daniels	76	76	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.24	-14	5	-19	13.1	17.5	-4.47	15.0	16.3	-1.25
Troy Murphy	76	77	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.20	-16	7	-23	13.8	15.2	-1.42	15.5	14.6	0.94

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	86	85	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.25	11	-2	13	15.0	17.8	-2.88	13.4	18.7	-5.32
Chris Quinn	47	46	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.31	8	1	7	16.4	14.3	2.19	14.5	13.7	0.71
Michael Beasley	60	60	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.16	12	-3	15	15.2	15.5	-0.27	13.6	14.8	-1.11
Shawn Marion	89	88	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.23	6	3	3	15.2	16.3	-1.13	13.9	15.4	-1.47
Joel Anthony	22	22	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.11	5	4	1	17.0	14.8	2.18	16.3	13.4	2.88
Udonis Haslem	76	76	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.13	4	5	-1	14.8	17.0	-2.18	13.4	16.3	-2.88
Yakhouba Diawara	29	31	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.03	3	6	-3	15.1	15.4	-0.29	14.9	13.7	1.15
Mario Chalmers	51	52	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	-0.07	1	8	-7	14.3	16.4	-2.19	13.7	14.5	-0.71
Daequan Cook	30	30	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.05	-5	14	-19	17.0	14.5	2.49	16.6	13.0	3.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.33,0.36,0.28,0.32,0.32,0.33,0.25,0.26,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.2,0.14,0.18,0.21,0.16,0.22,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.57,0.53,0.69,0.65,0.72,0.75,0.71,0.77,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 98, POR 110	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.43,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.29,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.26,0.2,0.19,0.2,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.27,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.3,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.37,0.47,0.64,0.71,0.9,0.75,0.93,0.98,1,1	92.3%
TOR 112, MIN 117	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.49,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.35,0.33,0.26,0.18,0.23,0.16,0.13,0.15,0.22,0.16,0.23,0.34,0.31,0.24,0.39,0.37,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.33,0.4,0.46,0.38,0.52,0.58,0.65,0.79,0.76,0.78,0.61,0.55,0.69,0.9,1	92.1%
MIA 73, NYK 77	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.44,0.45,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.28,0.31,0.32,0.34,0.32,0.27,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.3,0.34,0.31,0.23,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.33,0.42,0.4,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.37,0.33,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.79,0.65,0.78,0.61,0.54,0.83,0.9,1	92.0%