NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	104		Excitement	7.2 [405]		MVP	Rudy Gay (SAC): +20.4%
Sacramento Kings	111		Comeback	2.4 [525]		LVP	Khris Middleton (MIL): -22.3%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Greg Monroe	0.17	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.14	-0.02	-0.04	16	69%	0.22	1	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Rashad Vaughn	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.07	0.04	-0.00	6	75%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Carter-Williams	0.10	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.11	0.01	0.01	8	82%	0.21	3	-0.11	6	83%	0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.07	0.01	12	55%	0.15	2	-0.07	7	71%	0.00
Jabari Parker	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	0.00	0.03	12	67%	0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Johnny O'Bryant	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerryd Bayless	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.1,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	9	33%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Miles Plumlee	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.06	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Khris Middleton	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.09	-0.10	0.03	18	38%	-0.12	3	-0.10	1	0%	-0.02

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.18	0.08	0.06	20	70%	0.23	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.03
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.14,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09	0.09	-0.01	0.08	-0.02	15	49%	0.15	2	-0.05	7	86%	0.03
Omri Casspi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.02	-0.00	9	52%	0.07	0	0.00	7	86%	0.02
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0,0,0.07,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.02	10	79%	0.18	6	-0.19	4	75%	0.01
Darren Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.01	11	54%	0.04	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00
Willie Cauley-Stein	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.03	-0.00	4	50%	0.04	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
James Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.02	-0.01	9	35%	-0.00	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Quincy Acy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	7	29%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	1.8	27.0	14.8	26.3	2.4	36.5	133.2
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL -6.8%

SAC +8.6%

SAC +37.7%

SAC +8.9%

SAC +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	SAC	NBA	MIL	SAC	NBA
this game	13.8	15.9	14.9	108.3	113.3	105.1
season	14.8	13.9		102.8	104.8
opponent	14.6	15.3		107.1	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	12.6	17.0	12.3	13.6	13.8
SAC	16.2	15.0	16.5	15.7	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Johnny O'Bryant	13	12	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.05	-4	-3	-1	16.1	13.4	2.66	15.2	16.0	-0.73
Michael Carter-Williams	68	69	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.08	-1	-6	5	12.9	15.8	-2.88	16.8	13.8	2.98
Miles Plumlee	27	29	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.11	-2	-5	3	13.3	14.0	-0.67	15.5	16.0	-0.53
Khris Middleton	68	71	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.16	-1	-6	5	13.1	15.4	-2.22	15.9	15.8	0.15
Rashad Vaughn	34	34	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.17	-4	-3	-1	15.3	13.0	2.30	16.0	15.8	0.17
Greg Monroe	69	69	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.18	-5	-2	-3	14.0	13.3	0.67	16.0	15.5	0.53
Jerryd Bayless	55	57	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.27	-4	-3	-1	14.6	12.7	1.92	14.6	17.6	-2.96
Jabari Parker	71	76	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.35	-2	-5	3	14.0	13.2	0.73	16.3	14.4	1.97
Giannis Antetokounmpo	75	73	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.19	-12	5	-17	13.3	15.6	-2.29	15.6	16.8	-1.22

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rudy Gay	80	76	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.30	7	0	7	15.9	15.8	0.07	13.6	14.5	-0.97
Marco Belinelli	70	69	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.18	10	-3	13	17.2	12.5	4.74	14.2	12.7	1.50
Willie Cauley-Stein	60	61	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.21	8	-1	9	14.1	18.8	-4.70	13.9	13.6	0.33
Rajon Rondo	73	72	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.32	4	3	1	15.8	16.0	-0.15	13.1	15.7	-2.57
Kosta Koufos	57	56	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.11	10	-3	13	17.6	13.5	4.17	15.0	12.1	2.93
James Anderson	18	16	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.07	4	3	1	14.1	16.3	-2.24	14.7	13.6	1.16
Omri Casspi	51	49	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.18	-1	8	-9	15.6	16.2	-0.67	13.7	13.9	-0.22
Quincy Acy	38	38	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.07	-3	10	-13	15.6	16.1	-0.46	12.0	14.9	-2.95
Darren Collison	43	43	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.03	-4	11	-15	15.3	16.3	-0.96	14.1	13.5	0.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.35,0.34,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.36,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.64,0.5,0.48,0.57,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.76,0.78,0.89,0.98,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 71, PHI 80	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.41,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.33,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.52,0.41,0.37,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.52,0.58,0.63,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.87,0.93,0.98,0.98,1	93.9%
DEN 96, POR 107	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.4,0.31,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.42,0.52,0.53,0.62,0.68,0.64,0.88,0.91,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	93.5%
VAN 82, GSW 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.36,0.41,0.42,0.59,0.59,0.48,0.6,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.69,0.85,0.72,0.75,0.89,0.99,0.98,1	93.2%