NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	101		Excitement	10.8 [39]		MVP	Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL): +19.6%
Milwaukee Bucks	108		Comeback	3.9 [170]		LVP	Jeff Teague (ATL): -32.8%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dennis Schroder	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.14,0.13	0.05	0.07	-0.01	10	73%	0.25	3	-0.12	2	100%	0.02
Paul Millsap	0.12	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.22,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.05	0.08	0.01	19	57%	0.19	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Al Horford	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.19,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.01,0.01	-0.11	0.08	-0.03	23	39%	0.07	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Justin Holiday	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Korver	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01	0.11	-0.09	0.02	10	85%	0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway Jr.	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tiago Splitter	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Scott	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08	-0.02	-0.08	-0.02	5	30%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.08	-0.06	-0.00	5	33%	-0.07	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.04
Kent Bazemore	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.06	-0.08	0.01	9	39%	-0.08	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	-0.33	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.12,-0.19,-0.19,-0.3,-0.41,-0.41,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33	-0.10	-0.22	0.00	13	35%	-0.20	3	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.3,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.09	0.11	-0.00	18	62%	0.49	3	-0.29	9	78%	0.02
Johnny O'Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rashad Vaughn	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Ennis	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Khris Middleton	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.06,0.01,0.09,0.16,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.03	-0.06	0.00	23	51%	0.09	2	-0.13	5	80%	0.02
John Henson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.02	0.00	6	50%	0.05	3	-0.08	8	50%	-0.06
Greg Monroe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.06	-0.02	16	34%	-0.13	1	-0.02	12	58%	-0.05
Michael Carter-Williams	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.23,-0.23,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.16	-0.16	-0.10	-0.09	-0.03	15	45%	0.10	6	-0.27	3	100%	0.02
Jabari Parker	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.08	-0.09	0.01	15	33%	-0.16	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	23.3	1.7	30.9	15.0	25.2	2.5	35.2	2.5	15.7	152.1
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	2.2	17.3	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +4.5%

MIL +33.1%

MIL +50.5%

ATL -28.5%

ATL -9.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIL	NBA	ATL	MIL	NBA
this game	14.0	14.8	14.9	91.0	98.2	105.1
season	14.2	14.8		104.1	102.8
opponent	15.3	15.1		107.2	100.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
ATL	15.2	13.3	11.6	15.7	15.0	14.0
MIL	13.6	14.3	15.5	16.3	13.5	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tiago Splitter	28	27	0.04	-0.54	0.57	-0.05	3	-10	13	12.9	14.4	-1.44	13.3	15.3	-1.96
Kent Bazemore	45	47	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.11	-3	-4	1	14.3	13.8	0.43	16.0	13.9	2.14
Justin Holiday	0	1	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.02	-2	-5	3	0.0	14.0	-14.01	23.0	14.7	8.30
Tim Hardaway Jr.	10	11	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.10	2	-9	11	14.2	14.0	0.21	16.5	14.6	1.97
Dennis Schroder	39	39	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.04	-4	-3	-1	14.1	14.0	0.10	15.5	14.4	1.07
Thabo Sefolosha	74	71	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.20	0	-7	7	14.4	13.2	1.19	14.6	15.1	-0.51
Mike Scott	38	37	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.14	-3	-4	1	14.3	13.8	0.47	15.6	14.4	1.24
Paul Millsap	69	70	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.26	-4	-3	-1	13.8	14.4	-0.67	14.1	15.9	-1.85
Kyle Korver	86	85	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.29	-6	-1	-5	14.0	14.2	-0.25	14.6	15.4	-0.81
Al Horford	87	85	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.21	-10	3	-13	14.1	13.6	0.54	15.0	13.9	1.16
Jeff Teague	79	77	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.38	-8	1	-9	13.8	14.5	-0.65	14.1	16.3	-2.14

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Henson	65	65	1.06	-0.56	1.62	0.59	16	-9	25	13.6	16.4	-2.79	14.5	13.3	1.17
Jabari Parker	78	81	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.31	12	-5	17	13.8	17.2	-3.36	14.2	13.4	0.79
Khris Middleton	95	96	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.34	11	-4	15	14.5	16.7	-2.19	14.2	13.0	1.17
Michael Carter-Williams	89	91	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.36	7	0	7	14.0	18.0	-4.05	13.8	15.1	-1.33
Giannis Antetokounmpo	104	105	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.31	5	2	3	15.0	11.2	3.81	13.8	18.2	-4.40
Tyler Ennis	11	11	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.01	1	6	-5	16.8	14.5	2.27	16.3	13.8	2.51
Johnny O'Bryant	27	26	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	-0.05	-4	11	-15	15.5	14.5	0.99	13.8	14.1	-0.26
Rashad Vaughn	25	24	-0.25	0.75	-0.99	-0.10	-5	12	-17	17.8	13.9	3.87	13.2	14.2	-0.97
Greg Monroe	56	56	-0.52	1.02	-1.54	-0.28	-8	15	-23	16.7	12.8	3.96	13.7	14.3	-0.67

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.39,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.35,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.28,0.23,0.3,0.37,0.43,0.37,0.31,0.33,0.45,0.39,0.41,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.4,0.38,0.3,0.34,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.41,0.4,0.31,0.45,0.44,0.58,0.46,0.61,0.54,0.68,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 113, IND 118	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.31,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.32,0.36,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.29,0.31,0.36,0.41,0.37,0.43,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.34,0.4,0.44,0.26,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.23,0.17,0.15,0.27,0.39,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.45,0.71,0.78,0.98,1	89.9%
SAS 82, ATL 87	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.5,0.56,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.29,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.61,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.4,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.36,0.45,0.57,0.46,0.39,0.55,0.69,0.85,1	89.8%
CHI 96, UTA 105	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.47,0.4,0.51,0.56,0.65,0.63,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.34,0.42,0.36,0.41,0.35,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.52,0.46,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.37,0.53,0.54,0.47,0.31,0.45,0.33,0.42,0.54,0.54,0.71,0.84,0.97,1	89.7%