NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	82		Excitement	11.3 [26]		MVP	Mookie Blaylock (ATL): +20.0%
Atlanta Hawks	87		Comeback	11.1 [109]		LVP	Vernon Maxwell (SAS): -40.4%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Will Perdue	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.11	0.06	0.05	0.00	12	70%	0.15	2	-0.04	3	33%	-0.08
Cory Alexander	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Greg Anderson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	6	33%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monty Williams	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	9	52%	-0.03	2	-0.06	5	40%	-0.06
Avery Johnson	-0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.11,0.11,0.05,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11	-0.04	-0.08	-0.01	19	50%	-0.01	3	-0.10	4	75%	0.09
Carl Herrera	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	9	11%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vinny Del Negro	-0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.29	-0.12	-0.17	0.00	10	30%	-0.17	2	-0.12	3	33%	-0.11
Vernon Maxwell	-0.40	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.24,-0.24,-0.22,-0.16,-0.25,-0.31,-0.31,-0.4,-0.4,-0.4	-0.16	-0.26	-0.01	25	33%	-0.36	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.07

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mookie Blaylock	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.26,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	-0.05	0.24	-0.01	14	54%	0.35	5	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.28,-0.28,-0.35,-0.27,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.02	0.09	0.00	17	67%	0.38	7	-0.31	5	100%	0.03
Eldridge Recasner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.03	-0.02	6	46%	0.05	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.01
Ivano Newbill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ken Norman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Henry James	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	5	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Steven Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.27,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	10	58%	-0.01	4	-0.10	6	67%	0.02
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.06	-0.12	0.00	8	56%	-0.03	2	-0.14	11	64%	0.01
Tyrone Corbin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32	-0.32	-0.13	-0.19	0.00	7	17%	-0.30	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	21.6	2.4	29.8	15.0	26.2	2.4	29.4	2.4	16.4	145.6
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	1.6	17.8	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +92.5%

ATL +2.7%

SAS -3.7%

SAS -36.8%

SAS -4.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	ATL	NBA	SAS	ATL	NBA
this game	18.9	15.2	15.6	88.2	93.5	104.4
season	16.8	16.4		100.8	105.3
opponent	16.0	15.4		100.3	109.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
SAS	18.8	17.8	18.5	20.0	21.2	18.9
ATL	16.3	14.3	14.2	16.0	16.2	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greg Anderson	71	69	0.43	-0.93	1.36	0.23	7	-12	19	18.2	21.2	-2.99	15.9	13.2	2.69
Cory Alexander	12	11	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.01	2	-7	9	17.4	19.2	-1.76	18.7	14.8	3.95
Will Perdue	83	83	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.01	-5	0	-5	19.2	17.1	2.07	15.3	15.2	0.05
Vernon Maxwell	76	75	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.25	-8	3	-11	18.8	19.6	-0.86	15.9	12.6	3.27
Carl Herrera	28	30	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.40	-5	0	-5	20.1	18.4	1.66	14.8	15.5	-0.66
Avery Johnson	81	82	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.37	-7	2	-9	19.2	17.4	1.76	14.8	18.7	-3.95
Vinny Del Negro	64	63	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.43	-5	0	-5	19.0	18.9	0.07	15.4	14.9	0.56
Monty Williams	50	52	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.55	-4	-1	-3	19.1	18.7	0.42	13.4	17.5	-4.09

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Henry James	42	41	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.29	12	-7	19	14.7	15.7	-1.06	18.2	19.5	-1.26
Mookie Blaylock	86	86	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.32	10	-5	15	15.1	17.1	-2.05	19.0	18.6	0.41
Steven Smith	77	75	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.35	6	-1	7	15.5	13.9	1.58	18.9	18.9	0.00
Christian Laettner	90	90	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.37	3	2	1	15.3	14.0	1.29	18.9	21.3	-2.47
Tyrone Corbin	52	53	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.39	-4	9	-13	15.4	15.0	0.40	19.2	18.6	0.56
Dikembe Mutombo	85	85	0.25	0.25	0.01	-0.04	10	-5	15	15.2	15.4	-0.14	19.5	12.7	6.78
Ken Norman	1	2	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.03	-3	8	-11	13.0	15.3	-2.27	21.0	18.9	2.10
Ivano Newbill	9	8	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.01	-3	8	-11	16.9	15.1	1.82	15.1	19.3	-4.18
Eldridge Recasner	23	25	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.04	-6	11	-17	14.9	15.4	-0.44	18.8	19.0	-0.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.5,0.56,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.29,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.61,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.4,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.36,0.45,0.57,0.46,0.39,0.55,0.69,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
BKN 120, PHI 121	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.59,0.64,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.56,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.57,0.48,0.58,0.42,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.37,0.23,0.36,0.46,0.43,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.66,0.6,0.39,0.29,0.45,0.42,0.54,0.31,0.54,0.85,0.83,1	90.9%
HOU 95, MIN 100	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.41,0.36,0.43,0.51,0.58,0.46,0.52,0.49,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.45,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.52,0.42,0.57,0.52,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.62,0.46,0.45,0.73,0.46,0.61,0.71,0.78,0.91,1	90.4%
MIN 103, ORL 112	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.48,0.41,0.4,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.54,0.46,0.67,0.46,0.32,0.26,0.46,0.75,0.72,0.84,1,1	90.1%