NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	94		Excitement	10.6 [48]		MVP	Marcus Morris (DET): +28.2%
Detroit Pistons	98		Comeback	2.2 [423]		LVP	Reggie Jackson (DET): -43.5%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Doug McDermott	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tony Snell	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	-0.04	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	6	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.01	7	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.07
Joakim Noah	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.03	-0.00	1	50%	0.03	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03
E'Twaun Moore	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.04,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	0.02	19	44%	-0.03	1	-0.02	14	86%	0.04
Pau Gasol	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11	-0.02	-0.06	0.03	14	53%	-0.04	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Nikola Mirotic	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13	0.05	-0.16	0.02	14	65%	0.15	4	-0.28	6	83%	0.02
Derrick Rose	-0.22	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.05,-0.03,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.17	-0.07	-0.01	13	31%	-0.06	5	-0.16	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Morris	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.15,0.12,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.28	0.28	0.12	0.14	-0.02	15	67%	0.35	2	-0.07	9	44%	-0.06
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.06	0.00	9	61%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stanley Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.04	-0.00	8	41%	0.06	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Aron Baynes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Reggie Bullock	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andre Drummond	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.13,-0.17,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	0.01	-0.00	19	42%	-0.01	3	-0.08	10	40%	-0.08
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.04	-0.01	7	0%	-0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32	-0.32	-0.14	-0.19	-0.00	12	23%	-0.12	2	-0.20	2	100%	0.02
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.15,-0.06,-0.29,-0.43,-0.37,-0.37,-0.42,-0.44,-0.44	-0.44	-0.12	-0.31	0.01	24	42%	-0.24	5	-0.20	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	24.3	2.3	28.6	16.7	25.2	1.8	32.6	1.8	19.3	152.7
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	2.2	17.3	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI -8.9%

CHI -8.4%

DET +54.0%

DET +8.5%

DET +4.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	DET	NBA	CHI	DET	NBA
this game	13.7	15.4	14.9	85.5	89.9	105.1
season	14.8	15.0		103.7	104.9
opponent	15.1	14.9		105.0	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
CHI	13.0	12.6	15.4	14.8	11.8	13.7
DET	17.0	16.2	14.6	15.8	11.3	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Brooks	37	35	0.16	-0.66	0.82	-0.13	10	-14	24	14.2	13.4	0.76	16.3	14.9	1.31
Taj Gibson	40	39	0.13	-0.63	0.75	0.10	1	-5	6	12.6	14.3	-1.62	16.8	14.6	2.26
Joakim Noah	36	33	0.08	-0.58	0.67	0.03	2	-6	8	14.1	13.5	0.68	16.5	14.9	1.60
Doug McDermott	31	34	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.16	4	-8	12	12.5	14.1	-1.58	14.8	15.6	-0.88
Tony Snell	59	59	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.13	-2	-2	0	14.7	12.5	2.29	15.5	15.2	0.23
E'Twaun Moore	38	37	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.13	-5	1	-6	13.3	13.9	-0.60	16.3	14.9	1.37
Nikola Mirotic	81	80	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.34	2	-6	8	13.5	14.1	-0.57	15.0	16.4	-1.43
Jimmy Butler	88	87	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.35	-2	-2	0	13.9	12.8	1.08	15.0	17.0	-1.99
Derrick Rose	72	72	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.24	-14	10	-24	13.5	14.1	-0.61	15.1	16.0	-0.92
Pau Gasol	68	69	-1.02	0.52	-1.55	-0.56	-16	12	-28	13.7	13.6	0.06	14.6	16.8	-2.22

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andre Drummond	80	82	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.29	12	-8	20	14.8	16.8	-1.99	14.2	12.2	1.97
Reggie Jackson	78	80	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.35	7	-3	10	14.9	16.6	-1.70	13.7	13.6	0.07
Marcus Morris	86	87	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.33	6	-2	8	15.0	16.8	-1.85	13.9	12.9	1.03
Anthony Tolliver	58	62	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.30	2	2	0	15.8	14.8	0.98	14.0	13.3	0.73
Ersan Ilyasova	46	44	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.02	6	-2	8	16.1	14.8	1.32	13.5	13.8	-0.23
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	66	68	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.01	4	0	4	15.4	15.4	-0.01	14.4	12.6	1.80
Stanley Johnson	27	26	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.12	-4	8	-12	14.7	15.6	-0.93	12.5	14.0	-1.50
Steve Blake	31	30	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.04	-3	7	-10	16.6	14.9	1.70	13.6	13.7	-0.07
Aron Baynes	29	28	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.10	-8	12	-20	16.8	14.8	1.99	12.2	14.2	-1.97
Reggie Bullock	31	30	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	-0.02	-6	10	-16	16.8	14.8	1.97	12.9	14.0	-1.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.54,0.55,0.64,0.61,0.62,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.6,0.54,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.54,0.61,0.53,0.61,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.71,0.68,0.62,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.5,0.38,0.47,0.72,0.63,0.53,0.41,0.46,0.39,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.54,0.75,0.93,0.91,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 93, SAC 106	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.68,0.62,0.63,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.53,0.68,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.24,0.15,0.34,0.42,0.54,0.69,0.93,1,1,1	89.5%
SAC 91, GSW 95	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.5,0.57,0.67,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.45,0.33,0.45,0.22,0.41,0.54,0.69,0.93,0.76,0.84,1	88.9%
GSW 89, MIL 94	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.63,0.57,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.4,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.38,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.57,0.62,0.53,0.47,0.59,0.53,0.47,0.36,0.57,0.42,0.46,0.55,0.55,0.85,0.96,1	88.8%