NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	144		Excitement	15.8 [3]		MVP	Danilo Gallinari (DEN): +95.1%
Denver Nuggets	143		Comeback	8.1 [156]		LVP	Ty Lawson (DEN): -38.9%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Richard Jefferson	0.56	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.27,0.27,0.42,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.56	0.13	0.44	0.01	15	71%	0.60	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Raymond Felton	0.47	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.47	0.03	0.47	0.03	12	52%	0.49	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00
Devin Harris	0.44	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44	0.14	0.30	0.00	9	87%	0.49	2	-0.05	6	67%	-0.01
Amar'e Stoudemire	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.00	-0.00	8	75%	0.11	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Monta Ellis	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.07,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.21,-0.15,-0.15,-0.07,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.05	0.02	-0.05	17	53%	0.30	5	-0.29	2	50%	-0.03
Bernard James	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.01	-0.10	0.00	5	50%	0.00	1	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	-0.15	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.02	-0.13	0.00	3	75%	0.05	3	-0.20	2	100%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.18	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.04,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.09,-0.03,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	0.06	-0.25	-0.01	19	58%	-0.08	2	-0.10	5	100%	0.02
Charlie Villanueva	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,0.04,0.04,-0.21	-0.04	-0.17	-0.01	10	30%	-0.21	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al-Farouq Aminu	-0.31	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.31	-0.02	-0.28	0.01	11	45%	-0.27	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.45,0.45,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.88,1.05,1.05,0.95	0.95	0.41	0.62	0.08	23	84%	0.95	0	0.00	10	100%	0.11
JJ Hickson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.00	0.05	-0.01	10	54%	0.10	2	-0.04	6	67%	0.00
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.04	-0.00	4	25%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joffrey Lauvergne	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wilson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.27,0.2,0.39,0.33,0.2,0.2,0.11,0.03,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	22	45%	0.14	3	-0.24	0	0%	0.00
Jusuf Nurkic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.06	-0.08	0.01	8	40%	-0.06	2	-0.08	4	100%	0.01
Kenneth Faried	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.27	-0.27	-0.02	-0.28	-0.02	12	52%	-0.04	3	-0.24	3	67%	-0.00
Randy Foye	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.24,-0.33,-0.33	-0.33	-0.03	-0.29	0.02	18	47%	-0.18	3	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,0.01,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.39,-0.39,-0.39,-0.39,-0.39,-0.39	-0.39	-0.05	-0.32	0.03	21	43%	-0.33	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1		OT2	Total
this game	24.5	2.0	35.2	16.4	25.4	1.8	34.0	2.5	11.2	2.4	14.0	169.4
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	2.0	17.8	2.0	17.8	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +111.3%

DEN -16.9%

DEN -52.7%

DEN -2.3%

DAL +10.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	DEN	NBA	DAL	DEN	NBA
this game	13.6	15.2	15.1	118.0	119.2	104.2
season	14.6	14.6		107.6	103.4
opponent	15.3	15.0		106.6	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DAL	12.0	13.7	13.0	14.7	15.3	13.6
DEN	14.1	14.5	14.2	15.5	18.9	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Raymond Felton	63	63	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.53	6	-5	11	13.9	13.3	0.57	15.2	15.1	0.03
Bernard James	9	9	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.52	-1	2	-3	17.0	13.3	3.65	15.9	15.1	0.79
Charlie Villanueva	39	37	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.63	-7	8	-15	14.7	13.1	1.62	13.5	15.9	-2.34
Dirk Nowitzki	76	77	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.07	16	-15	31	13.2	14.3	-1.18	16.4	13.0	3.40
Jose Juan Barea	43	41	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.60	-12	13	-25	14.7	13.0	1.64	13.8	15.9	-2.13
Monta Ellis	79	78	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.14	10	-9	19	13.2	14.4	-1.24	15.7	14.1	1.67
Richard Jefferson	68	67	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.07	3	-2	5	13.1	14.3	-1.26	15.9	14.2	1.70
Tyson Chandler	66	66	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.13	8	-7	15	12.9	14.4	-1.54	16.0	14.1	1.87
Al-Farouq Aminu	61	59	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.32	-10	11	-21	14.1	13.1	0.93	13.7	16.5	-2.81
Amar'e Stoudemire	46	45	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.07	-6	7	-13	13.9	13.4	0.44	13.8	16.0	-2.21
Devin Harris	60	58	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	-0.05	-2	3	-5	13.2	14.0	-0.82	15.3	15.0	0.36

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
JJ Hickson	42	42	0.22	-0.72	0.94	-0.07	10	-11	21	14.7	15.4	-0.76	14.5	13.1	1.39
Joffrey Lauvergne	0	1	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.01	0	-1	1	0.0	15.2	-15.16	17.0	13.6	3.41
Danilo Gallinari	95	96	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.65	20	-21	41	14.9	16.2	-1.32	13.9	12.7	1.12
Will Barton	21	21	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.26	-12	11	-23	14.8	15.2	-0.42	13.7	13.6	0.12
Jusuf Nurkic	26	28	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.18	-10	9	-19	15.4	15.1	0.34	15.2	13.1	2.12
Erick Green	18	18	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.00	-6	5	-11	14.6	15.3	-0.64	15.3	13.3	2.02
Gary Harris	20	20	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	0.06	-9	8	-17	15.6	15.1	0.53	13.9	13.6	0.34
Ty Lawson	109	110	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.49	5	-6	11	15.0	16.8	-1.83	13.5	14.8	-1.35
Kenneth Faried	68	70	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.54	1	-2	3	15.0	15.4	-0.37	13.3	14.0	-0.70
Randy Foye	97	100	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.59	2	-3	5	15.6	13.4	2.19	13.3	15.1	-1.80
Wilson Chandler	104	104	-0.68	0.18	-0.85	-0.50	-6	5	-11	15.5	12.9	2.63	12.8	18.1	-5.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.31,0.32,0.34,0.28,0.34,0.34,0.23,0.2,0.18,0.16,0.18,0.16,0.18,0.11,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.11,0.24,0.23,0.25,0.34,0.3,0.21,0.24,0.23,0.25,0.4,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.69,0.84,0.5,0.32,0.63,0.67,0.58,0.5,0.55,0.71,0.85,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 91, NOH 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.37,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.2,0.19,0.17,0.16,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.22,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.26,0.38,0.28,0.26,0.34,0.46,0.38,0.54,0.78,0.85,1	87.2%
MIN 108, DEN 111	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.39,0.35,0.32,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.31,0.3,0.23,0.22,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.17,0.11,0.1,0.17,0.32,0.3,0.38,0.38,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.34,0.38,0.36,0.55,0.73,0.54,0.55,0.72,0.78,0.73,1	87.0%
PHX 91, NYK 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.48,0.41,0.39,0.31,0.33,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.34,0.27,0.27,0.23,0.15,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.14,0.12,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.17,0.28,0.2,0.23,0.21,0.26,0.3,0.29,0.33,0.46,0.47,0.53,0.61,0.62,0.55,0.67,0.91,1	86.5%