NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	110		Excitement	5.6 [695]		MVP	O.J. Mayo (MIL): +23.9%
Boston Celtics	101		Comeback	2.2 [246]		LVP	Evan Turner (BOS): -13.7%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
O.J. Mayo	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.20	0.04	-0.00	13	80%	0.26	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.03
Ersan Ilyasova	0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.03	0.02	14	61%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jared Dudley	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.02	0.00	7	71%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jerryd Bayless	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	4	60%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
John Henson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.06	-0.01	0.03	5	100%	0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	0.04	8	61%	0.01	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Zaza Pachulia	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	0.00	-0.02	10	42%	0.02	3	-0.07	6	50%	-0.06
Khris Middleton	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	0.00	-0.01	16	38%	-0.03	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Michael Carter-Williams	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.12	0.01	0.00	8	44%	0.03	6	-0.14	2	50%	-0.01

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Avery Bradley	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.00	-0.01	15	57%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Jerebko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.11	-0.01	0.04	10	77%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Phil Pressey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.15,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.06	-0.00	0.05	12	72%	0.17	5	-0.16	8	87%	0.02
Tyler Zeller	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	9	40%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jae Crowder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	8	50%	0.04	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Gigi Datome	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jared Sullinger	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	7	36%	-0.00	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.06	0.02	12	46%	-0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	-0.00
Marcus Smart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Evan Turner	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.07	-0.03	0.04	7	43%	-0.04	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	1.8	30.2	15.4	27.4	1.8	29.0	129.1
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +50.7%

BOS -13.1%

MIL +3.5%

MIL +11.7%

BOS -2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	BOS	NBA	MIL	BOS	NBA
this game	14.0	13.9	15.1	104.8	100.0	104.2
season	14.5	14.3		100.5	103.1
opponent	15.4	15.7		103.3	101.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	13.1	13.8	13.1	16.5	14.0
BOS	14.6	12.9	13.6	14.8	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zaza Pachulia	59	59	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.15	13	-4	17	16.0	11.5	4.44	14.8	12.7	2.06
O.J. Mayo	70	66	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.14	13	-4	17	12.9	16.3	-3.36	12.8	16.1	-3.37
Michael Carter-Williams	71	69	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.14	12	-3	15	15.0	11.9	3.07	15.2	11.1	4.12
Ersan Ilyasova	56	53	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.16	7	2	5	14.8	13.1	1.64	13.7	14.2	-0.59
Khris Middleton	77	73	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.18	3	6	-3	14.6	12.5	2.12	12.8	16.8	-3.94
Giannis Antetokounmpo	56	54	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.14	2	7	-5	14.1	13.9	0.15	15.7	11.9	3.75
John Henson	39	36	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.01	2	7	-5	11.9	15.3	-3.38	13.9	14.0	-0.04
Jared Dudley	53	52	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.09	-2	11	-13	12.9	15.2	-2.32	13.6	14.3	-0.71
Jerryd Bayless	44	43	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.17	-5	14	-19	12.8	14.9	-2.11	12.9	14.7	-1.80

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jonas Jerebko	48	49	0.11	-0.61	0.71	-0.24	12	-21	33	12.8	14.9	-2.11	13.2	14.7	-1.57
Gigi Datome	19	19	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.12	5	-14	19	14.9	13.7	1.18	13.0	14.2	-1.24
Phil Pressey	4	4	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.05	-1	-8	7	21.2	13.6	7.61	20.0	13.8	6.22
Jae Crowder	46	45	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.02	-4	-5	1	12.3	15.3	-3.00	12.6	15.1	-2.56
Kelly Olynyk	46	50	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.27	5	-14	19	11.5	16.0	-4.48	12.0	15.8	-3.82
Jared Sullinger	6	7	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.03	-7	-2	-5	15.5	13.8	1.66	13.7	14.0	-0.33
Tyler Zeller	45	44	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.05	-5	-4	-1	16.6	11.8	4.88	15.8	12.7	3.06
Evan Turner	55	58	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.12	-5	-4	-1	14.2	13.6	0.57	15.2	12.5	2.73
Isaiah Thomas	60	64	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.22	-2	-7	5	13.2	15.0	-1.78	12.3	16.7	-4.41
Avery Bradley	70	73	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.12	-10	1	-11	13.9	14.0	-0.04	14.1	13.8	0.34
Marcus Smart	56	59	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.01	-16	7	-23	14.6	13.2	1.38	15.7	11.9	3.75
Brandon Bass	50	53	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.02	-17	8	-25	15.1	12.8	2.30	15.2	12.8	2.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.6,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.61,0.69,0.56,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.42,0.27,0.19,0.18,0.12,0.08,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.22,0.25,0.17,0.19,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.08,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 111, BOS 105	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.55,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.33,0.27,0.21,0.1,0.05,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.18,0.29,0.19,0.17,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.05,0.04,0.02,0	93.6%
IND 113, ATL 107	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.69,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.77,0.7,0.59,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.36,0.3,0.16,0.21,0.15,0.1,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.15,0.13,0.21,0.17,0.12,0.03,0.08,0.07,0.14,0.07,0.15,0.01,0	93.0%
MIN 112, MEM 99	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.57,0.65,0.64,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.66,0.61,0.55,0.56,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.3,0.16,0.15,0.1,0.08,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.0%