NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	93		Excitement	3.7 [1075]		MVP	Henry Walker (MIA): +6.7%
Boston Celtics	86		Comeback	1.3 [444]		LVP	Isaiah Thomas (BOS): -15.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Henry Walker	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	-0.00	-0.01	8	75%	0.10	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.00	-0.05	16	58%	0.13	4	-0.06	6	67%	-0.00
Tyler Johnson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	8	67%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
James Ennis	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Shabazz Napier	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	4	25%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	9	57%	0.06	4	-0.07	3	67%	0.00
Luol Deng	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	15	43%	-0.00	1	-0.01	5	80%	0.00
Michael Beasley	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	5	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Mario Chalmers	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	8	35%	0.00	3	-0.06	1	0%	-0.01

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Zeller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	5	83%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Gigi Datome	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	0.00	0.04	3	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Phil Pressey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.04	6	69%	0.02	2	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Avery Bradley	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	9	57%	0.04	3	-0.06	3	67%	-0.00
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	6	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.01
Gerald Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Evan Turner	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	5	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Jonas Jerebko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	7	29%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jae Crowder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	0.04	10	52%	-0.01	2	-0.04	11	73%	-0.01
Marcus Smart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	8	30%	-0.09	2	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Isaiah Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.14	-0.01	0.01	7	24%	-0.08	3	-0.07	3	0%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.4	2.3	30.5	15.7	31.8	1.8	39.6	150.1
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +44.5%

MIA +2.9%

MIA +1.6%

MIA +1.3%

BOS -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	BOS	NBA	MIA	BOS	NBA
this game	16.5	14.0	15.1	98.9	90.5	104.2
season	16.0	14.3		102.4	103.1
opponent	15.4	15.3		103.3	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.7	13.8	23.1	16.7	16.5
BOS	15.1	15.5	12.9	12.1	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luol Deng	67	69	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.18	9	-2	11	17.2	14.9	2.25	14.3	13.1	1.16
Tyler Johnson	43	45	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.00	13	-6	19	13.9	18.8	-4.92	13.3	14.5	-1.23
Mario Chalmers	71	71	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.20	5	2	3	17.1	14.8	2.26	14.1	13.5	0.56
Goran Dragic	75	76	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.34	0	7	-7	16.0	18.5	-2.50	13.5	15.7	-2.22
James Ennis	42	40	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.03	10	-3	13	16.3	16.7	-0.36	13.8	14.1	-0.23
Udonis Haslem	74	74	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.31	-1	8	-9	17.6	12.6	4.93	13.7	14.7	-0.97
Michael Beasley	28	30	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.12	3	4	-1	14.9	17.2	-2.33	13.8	14.0	-0.18
Henry Walker	55	54	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.16	0	7	-7	15.7	17.8	-2.11	15.1	12.4	2.76
Shabazz Napier	15	16	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.14	-4	11	-15	22.9	15.3	7.54	13.4	14.1	-0.63

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gigi Datome	24	23	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.39	13	-20	33	12.1	14.6	-2.45	18.3	16.0	2.35
Gerald Wallace	7	7	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.02	-1	-6	5	17.0	13.7	3.28	16.1	16.6	-0.42
Phil Pressey	35	35	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.37	9	-16	25	12.6	14.7	-2.15	18.1	15.6	2.57
Marcus Smart	62	60	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.40	9	-16	25	13.7	14.4	-0.71	15.7	17.9	-2.21
Tyler Zeller	35	37	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.03	-4	-3	-1	15.7	13.0	2.69	16.3	16.7	-0.43
Evan Turner	37	38	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.02	-7	0	-7	14.9	13.3	1.62	18.3	15.3	3.04
Jonas Jerebko	46	48	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.39	7	-14	21	13.2	14.6	-1.39	15.8	17.3	-1.47
Kelly Olynyk	33	32	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.16	-2	-5	3	13.2	14.4	-1.19	16.7	16.5	0.19
Brandon Bass	45	42	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	0.12	-15	8	-23	14.1	13.8	0.33	17.1	16.1	1.02
Jae Crowder	56	54	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.11	-9	2	-11	14.1	13.8	0.32	15.2	18.3	-3.08
Isaiah Thomas	41	39	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	0.14	-18	11	-29	13.7	14.2	-0.53	15.8	17.0	-1.22
Avery Bradley	54	55	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	0.10	-17	10	-27	14.8	12.9	1.94	16.5	16.5	-0.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.27,0.24,0.25,0.24,0.22,0.2,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 109, POR 92	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.26,0.22,0.23,0.24,0.23,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.1%
BOS 99, MIL 77	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.27,0.29,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.0%
TOR 89, DET 78	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.29,0.23,0.3,0.27,0.18,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.9%