NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	94		Excitement	5.0 [806]		MVP	Al Jefferson (CHA): +10.7%
Charlotte Hornets	103		Comeback	1.0 [615]		LVP	Marvin Williams (CHA): -14.9%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0.10	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.00	-0.01	26	56%	0.14	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jonas Valanciunas	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.01	3	82%	0.08	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02
Tyler Hansbrough	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	5	60%	0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Ross	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	10	40%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	6	37%	-0.00	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.01
Greivis Vasquez	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	3	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	0.08	-0.04	0.15	22	54%	-0.07	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Lou Williams	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.04	-0.01	9	20%	-0.11	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.03	-0.04	21	52%	0.11	1	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Brian Roberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.03	0.07	-0.00	6	60%	0.14	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Lance Stephenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.03	0.01	8	61%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.09	0.01	0.06	14	70%	0.12	3	-0.07	5	100%	0.01
Cody Zeller	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.02	-0.02	9	50%	0.04	1	-0.00	6	100%	0.01
Gerald Henderson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	-0.01	-0.02	11	59%	0.06	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Bismack Biyombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	8	44%	0.00	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.04	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	0.2	24.4	15.5	23.4	2.6	37.3	125.9
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHA +47.4%

CHA +5.4%

CHA +19.7%

TOR -24.0%

CHA +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	CHA	NBA	TOR	CHA	NBA
this game	14.4	15.2	15.1	97.9	104.0	104.2
season	15.6	15.6		109.1	98.9
opponent	15.1	15.0		102.6	106.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.5	16.6	14.1	11.5	14.4
CHA	14.5	14.1	15.3	16.6	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jonas Valanciunas	45	46	0.15	-0.65	0.79	-0.03	6	-15	21	14.9	13.9	1.07	15.1	15.2	-0.14
Amir Johnson	52	54	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.21	8	-17	25	14.2	14.5	-0.33	14.5	16.0	-1.50
Tyler Hansbrough	10	10	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.00	-2	-7	5	17.1	14.0	3.05	14.3	15.3	-0.96
Terrence Ross	66	67	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.16	3	-12	15	14.3	14.6	-0.34	14.9	15.7	-0.78
Charles Hayes	6	7	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.02	-4	-5	1	15.7	14.3	1.39	12.1	15.4	-3.25
Greivis Vasquez	25	27	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.03	-7	-2	-5	15.2	14.1	1.13	16.1	14.8	1.31
Lou Williams	29	32	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.10	-6	-3	-3	14.9	14.1	0.71	15.7	14.9	0.82
DeMar DeRozan	80	81	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.23	-4	-5	1	14.0	16.1	-2.04	15.1	15.5	-0.41
James Johnson	35	35	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.01	-17	8	-25	14.6	14.2	0.33	15.6	14.9	0.72
Kyle Lowry	78	80	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.18	-11	2	-13	14.0	15.9	-1.94	15.0	15.8	-0.78
Patrick Patterson	54	56	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.20	-11	2	-13	13.8	15.1	-1.38	16.0	14.1	1.85

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lance Stephenson	50	48	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.16	13	-4	17	15.4	14.9	0.52	13.9	14.8	-0.85
Al Jefferson	71	70	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.13	7	2	5	14.9	15.9	-1.02	14.2	14.8	-0.55
Marvin Williams	41	39	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.11	7	2	5	16.2	14.4	1.85	15.1	13.9	1.16
Mo Williams	75	73	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.20	3	6	-3	15.0	15.7	-0.72	14.2	14.8	-0.55
Brian Roberts	33	32	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.07	6	3	3	15.8	14.8	1.03	14.7	14.2	0.53
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	70	68	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.13	3	6	-3	15.1	15.3	-0.26	15.0	12.7	2.28
Gerald Henderson	69	67	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.15	2	7	-5	14.9	15.7	-0.82	14.0	15.3	-1.31
Cody Zeller	58	57	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.13	2	7	-5	14.4	16.2	-1.85	13.9	15.1	-1.16
Bismack Biyombo	28	26	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.11	2	7	-5	15.9	14.9	1.02	14.8	14.2	0.55

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.63,0.6,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.59,0.68,0.75,0.75,0.8,0.86,0.8,0.7,0.76,0.76,0.68,0.71,0.56,0.69,0.6,0.64,0.74,0.87,0.79,0.79,0.85,0.86,0.94,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 106, GSW 115	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.58,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.65,0.58,0.68,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.66,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.82,0.78,0.73,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.63,0.63,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.71,0.72,0.81,0.94,0.97,0.97,1,1,1,1,1	94.3%
MIL 83, DET 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.63,0.59,0.55,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.64,0.7,0.69,0.67,0.66,0.66,0.75,0.81,0.75,0.78,0.8,0.77,0.79,0.72,0.78,0.67,0.71,0.65,0.59,0.69,0.71,0.6,0.87,0.87,0.88,0.87,0.77,0.9,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	93.8%
NOH 81, HOU 89	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.71,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.69,0.65,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.67,0.73,0.84,0.81,0.77,0.73,0.78,0.76,0.68,0.65,0.65,0.7,0.63,0.64,0.74,0.78,0.85,0.91,0.93,0.92,0.98,0.95,0.93,0.92,0.98,1,1	93.7%