NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	83		Excitement	5.4 [741]		MVP	Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (DET): +17.0%
Detroit Pistons	98		Comeback	1.1 [1163]		LVP	Ish Smith (DET): -17.1%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Greg Monroe	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	9	52%	0.09	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Matthew Dellavedova	0.02	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	7	71%	0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Miles Plumlee	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.00	6	67%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Thon Maker	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mirza Teletovic	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	58%	0.03	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Snell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	7	29%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malcolm Brogdon	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	7	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Giannis Antetokounmpo	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.03	16	45%	0.03	2	-0.06	6	100%	0.03
John Henson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.09	-0.01	-0.05	3	0%	-0.02	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jabari Parker	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	0.02	16	38%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Rashad Vaughn	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	8	31%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.13	0.06	0.02	13	68%	0.17	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02
Tobias Harris	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.04	-0.01	12	67%	0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jon Leuer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	5	60%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Drummond	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.02	-0.00	16	50%	0.02	0	0.00	8	50%	-0.00
Stanley Johnson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aron Baynes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	58%	0.02	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.00
Marcus Morris	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.13	0.06	-0.05	16	32%	0.04	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	5	60%	0.04	5	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Ish Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.15	-0.05	-0.03	17	31%	-0.07	4	-0.10	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	2.3	28.6	16.4	24.0	1.8	31.0	125.4
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +39.3%

MIL -4.3%

DET +21.2%

MIL -9.8%

DET +3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	DET	NBA	MIL	DET	NBA
this game	16.1	14.5	14.8	88.3	104.3	107.7
season	14.9	15.0		107.4	105.0
opponent	15.1	15.3		106.4	107.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	17.7	15.7	16.0	15.1	16.1
DET	13.7	14.9	15.3	14.2	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Miles Plumlee	31	32	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.02	1	-16	17	17.6	15.3	2.26	16.2	13.7	2.45
Thon Maker	4	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-15	15	11.0	16.3	-5.32	16.7	14.5	2.19
Mirza Teletovic	29	29	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.02	-1	-14	13	17.0	15.7	1.26	16.3	13.8	2.51
Tony Snell	48	49	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.02	-1	-14	13	16.4	15.8	0.53	15.4	13.6	1.72
John Henson	22	22	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.02	-6	-9	3	17.1	15.8	1.36	13.3	14.9	-1.60
Matthew Dellavedova	58	58	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	0.01	-6	-9	3	17.2	14.4	2.77	15.1	13.6	1.46
Michael Beasley	32	33	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.07	-8	-7	-1	14.7	16.8	-2.14	14.3	14.7	-0.37
Jabari Parker	58	58	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.02	-10	-5	-5	16.0	16.2	-0.25	14.2	15.1	-0.83
Malcolm Brogdon	36	36	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.07	-9	-6	-3	14.4	17.2	-2.77	13.6	15.1	-1.46
Greg Monroe	37	37	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.06	-10	-5	-5	14.8	17.0	-2.21	13.7	15.1	-1.39
Giannis Antetokounmpo	69	68	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.05	-11	-4	-7	16.5	15.1	1.38	14.2	15.5	-1.27
Rashad Vaughn	46	45	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.04	-14	-1	-13	15.8	16.4	-0.53	13.6	15.4	-1.72

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jon Leuer	55	54	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.11	12	3	9	14.4	14.7	-0.30	15.1	17.4	-2.27
Tobias Harris	60	60	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.01	13	2	11	14.0	15.4	-1.41	16.9	14.6	2.36
Andre Drummond	69	70	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.05	9	6	3	14.7	14.1	0.58	17.0	13.3	3.71
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	66	66	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.08	7	8	-1	14.3	15.1	-0.85	16.1	16.1	-0.02
Beno Udrih	35	34	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.09	6	9	-3	14.5	14.6	-0.14	14.7	16.9	-2.13
Ish Smith	59	60	0.24	0.26	-0.03	-0.03	9	6	3	14.6	14.5	0.14	16.9	14.7	2.13
Stanley Johnson	31	32	0.21	0.29	-0.07	-0.02	8	7	1	15.3	14.2	1.12	15.5	16.4	-0.95
Aron Baynes	25	24	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.01	6	9	-3	14.1	14.7	-0.58	13.3	17.0	-3.71
Marcus Morris	70	70	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.00	5	10	-5	15.0	13.2	1.74	16.4	15.2	1.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.63,0.59,0.55,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.64,0.7,0.69,0.67,0.66,0.66,0.75,0.81,0.75,0.78,0.8,0.77,0.79,0.72,0.78,0.67,0.71,0.65,0.59,0.69,0.71,0.6,0.87,0.87,0.88,0.87,0.77,0.9,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 83, LAL 93	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.5,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.73,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.74,0.8,0.83,0.84,0.82,0.81,0.86,0.87,0.81,0.76,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.6,0.68,0.85,0.87,0.82,0.83,0.93,0.94,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.98,1,1,1	94.2%
MIN 105, MIA 123	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.61,0.6,0.59,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.62,0.69,0.78,0.74,0.71,0.71,0.74,0.75,0.75,0.88,0.81,0.82,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.65,0.62,0.7,0.8,0.84,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.86,0.83,0.81,0.79,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.2%
SEA 86, HOU 98	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.62,0.61,0.65,0.68,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.66,0.69,0.74,0.77,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.78,0.73,0.73,0.77,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.67,0.78,0.87,0.9,0.83,0.85,0.87,0.92,0.96,0.99,0.93,0.99,1,1	94.1%