NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	94		Excitement	9.1 [123]		MVP	Goran Dragic (MIA): +18.3%
Miami Heat	100		Comeback	2.9 [523]		LVP	Jordan Clarkson (LAL): -14.0%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ed Davis	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.09	0.03	0.00	10	67%	0.12	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.03
Carlos Boozer	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.00	-0.02	11	50%	0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Jordan Hill	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.11,0	-0.08	0.07	-0.02	14	41%	0.09	3	-0.09	4	75%	0.01
Jeremy Lin	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0	-0.01	0.01	0.00	12	46%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Wesley Johnson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.14,0.09,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	10	60%	0.09	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	-0.04	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.02	-0.04	0.02	15	47%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Kelly	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.01	-0.07	0.01	2	67%	0.01	1	-0.09	2	50%	-0.03
Robert Sacre	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	0.01	3	33%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Clarkson	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.18,-0.09,-0.14	-0.11	-0.04	-0.01	11	38%	-0.04	4	-0.10	4	75%	0.04

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.07	0.13	0.01	10	75%	0.32	4	-0.13	8	100%	0.06
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,0.11	0.11	-0.03	0.15	0.02	10	55%	0.21	4	-0.10	13	46%	-0.18
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.12,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.05	0.01	17	54%	0.13	1	-0.02	12	92%	0.08
Luol Deng	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.02	0.01	11	54%	0.02	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	3	33%	0.02	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	8	25%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	6	29%	-0.05	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Henry Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.03	-0.11	-0.00	10	40%	-0.10	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.5	3.4	24.6	16.6	32.2	3.3	33.3	142.0
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL -3.9%

MIA +20.5%

MIA +40.3%

LAL -0.5%

LAL -6.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	MIA	NBA	LAL	MIA	NBA
this game	14.0	14.6	15.1	94.0	99.0	104.2
season	15.5	16.0		101.9	102.4
opponent	15.3	14.7		105.4	108.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	13.0	15.4	14.6	13.4	14.0
MIA	14.7	17.3	11.7	15.4	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ed Davis	56	58	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.11	4	-10	14	14.2	13.9	0.27	15.2	13.8	1.47
Robert Sacre	36	35	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.04	-6	0	-6	14.4	13.8	0.55	14.2	14.8	-0.63
Jeremy Lin	59	60	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.31	5	-11	16	13.9	14.2	-0.26	15.3	13.6	1.73
Jordan Hill	59	60	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.34	3	-9	12	14.1	13.9	0.23	15.3	13.6	1.73
Carlos Boozer	41	41	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.01	-9	3	-12	13.9	14.1	-0.23	13.6	15.3	-1.73
Wesley Johnson	51	51	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.34	2	-8	10	14.1	13.9	0.20	16.1	13.1	3.08
Ryan Kelly	49	51	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.05	-9	3	-12	13.9	14.1	-0.20	12.8	16.4	-3.58
Wayne Ellington	89	90	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.37	-2	-4	2	14.0	14.0	0.04	14.4	16.0	-1.56
Jordan Clarkson	60	59	-0.69	0.19	-0.89	-0.17	-18	12	-30	13.8	14.4	-0.56	14.0	15.5	-1.48

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	64	64	1.00	-0.50	1.51	0.45	19	-13	32	14.9	14.2	0.67	14.2	13.7	0.45
Hassan Whiteside	68	68	0.97	-0.47	1.44	0.39	20	-14	34	14.2	15.4	-1.16	14.3	13.6	0.70
Luol Deng	72	72	0.89	-0.39	1.28	0.36	18	-12	30	14.7	14.4	0.33	14.3	13.4	0.85
Goran Dragic	80	78	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.27	10	-4	14	13.6	18.3	-4.64	13.7	15.3	-1.58
Udonis Haslem	34	34	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.00	14	-8	22	12.8	15.5	-2.70	14.1	14.0	0.07
Henry Walker	53	53	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.36	-1	7	-8	15.2	14.0	1.21	13.7	14.4	-0.65
Tyler Johnson	12	13	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.06	-6	12	-18	16.8	14.3	2.52	15.1	13.9	1.19
Mario Chalmers	46	45	-0.46	0.96	-1.41	-0.13	-11	17	-28	15.4	14.0	1.39	14.1	14.0	0.13
Chris Andersen	33	32	-0.47	0.97	-1.44	-0.06	-14	20	-34	15.4	14.2	1.16	13.6	14.3	-0.70
Michael Beasley	43	41	-0.63	1.13	-1.77	-0.08	-19	25	-44	15.2	14.2	0.96	14.0	14.1	-0.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.41,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.57,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.52,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.43,0.31,0.42,0.52,0.57,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.82,0.67,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.31,0.4,0.27,0.38,0.72,0.85,0.72,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 101, PHX 102	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.54,0.51,0.44,0.5,0.4,0.37,0.42,0.36,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.38,0.4,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.67,0.71,0.69,0.66,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.52,0.33,0.33,0.27,0.14,0.29,0.34,0.45,0.64,0.9,0.63,1	91.6%
DAL 107, ATL 112	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.55,0.48,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.5,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.37,0.45,0.52,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.68,0.71,0.79,0.73,0.67,0.59,0.46,0.48,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.46,0.4,0.47,0.72,0.67,0.92,1	91.1%
DET 68, MEM 72	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.49,0.56,0.47,0.36,0.33,0.41,0.44,0.5,0.58,0.57,0.52,0.55,0.67,0.62,0.62,0.75,0.77,0.71,0.76,0.7,0.57,0.57,0.38,0.37,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.53,0.85,0.84,0.82,1	91.0%